EV Calc's off on certain hands

[#1ThunderFan]

I was looking through my negative Allin EV hands and found some hands that were way off. I had updated to the new beta 28b and then imported my hands from PS to check my EV because the hands in my desktop database were showing that I was significantly above EV. I give you the hands to look at or whatever you need.

[Al1]

Can you attach some hands.

[#1ThunderFan]

PokerStars Game #26726687712: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2009/04/04 17:48:15 ET
Table 'Nerina IV' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: bjarne mort. ($37.80 in chips)
Seat 2: viduss ($14.25 in chips)
Seat 3: okfiremen ($25 in chips)
Seat 4: sdukes11 ($27.35 in chips)
Seat 5: pillagerseb ($25 in chips)
Seat 6: 11LOL11 ($26.20 in chips)
Seat 7: marco.vga.15 ($22.50 in chips)
Seat 8: bigskinny37 ($11.30 in chips)
Seat 9: JTSuited82 ($19.25 in chips)
11LOL11: posts small blind $0.10
marco.vga.15: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to okfiremen [Ks Kc]
bigskinny37: folds
JTSuited82: folds
bjarne mort.: calls $0.25
viduss: folds
okfiremen: raises $1 to $1.25
sdukes11: calls $1.25
pillagerseb: folds
11LOL11: raises $2.25 to $3.50
marco.vga.15: folds
bjarne mort.: calls $3.25
okfiremen: raises $8.50 to $12
sdukes11: folds
sdukes11 is sitting out
11LOL11: calls $8.50
sdukes11 has returned
bjarne mort.: folds
*** FLOP *** [7h Th 8h]
11LOL11: bets $14.20 and is all-in
okfiremen: calls $13 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($1.20) returned to 11LOL11
*** TURN *** [7h Th 8h] [Ac]
*** RIVER *** [7h Th 8h Ac] [Qh]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
11LOL11: shows [Jd Js] (a pair of Jacks)
okfiremen: shows [Ks Kc] (a pair of Kings)
okfiremen collected $52.35 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $55 | Rake $2.65
Board [7h Th 8h Ac Qh]
Seat 1: bjarne mort. folded before Flop
Seat 2: viduss folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: okfiremen showed [Ks Kc] and won ($52.35) with a pair of Kings
Seat 4: sdukes11 folded before Flop
Seat 5: pillagerseb (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: 11LOL11 (small blind) showed [Jd Js] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 7: marco.vga.15 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: bigskinny37 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: JTSuited82 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Hand #857

PokerStars Game #26726362088: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2009/04/04 17:38:36 ET
Table 'Ulula V' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Renz49 ($53.05 in chips)
Seat 2: Gory Blood ($5 in chips)
Seat 3: Thomazzje ($40.55 in chips)
Seat 4: JOXPO ($25.50 in chips)
Seat 5: okfiremen ($25 in chips)
Seat 6: legionverde ($42.20 in chips)
Seat 7: CarppiCala ($5 in chips)
Seat 8: jmillerdls ($44.70 in chips)
Seat 9: uerdinger07 ($14.60 in chips)
legionverde: posts small blind $0.10
CarppiCala: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to okfiremen [Ah Ac]
jmillerdls: folds
uerdinger07: raises $0.25 to $0.50
Renz49: calls $0.50
Gory Blood: folds
Thomazzje: folds
JOXPO: folds
okfiremen: raises $1.50 to $2
legionverde: folds
CarppiCala: folds
uerdinger07: raises $1.50 to $3.50
Renz49: calls $3
okfiremen: raises $6.50 to $10
uerdinger07: raises $4.60 to $14.60 and is all-in
Renz49: folds
okfiremen: calls $4.60
*** FLOP *** [5c Jh 4s]
*** TURN *** [5c Jh 4s] [Ad]
*** RIVER *** [5c Jh 4s Ad] [8c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
uerdinger07: shows [Ks Kc] (a pair of Kings)
okfiremen: shows [Ah Ac] (three of a kind, Aces)
okfiremen collected $31.40 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $33.05 | Rake $1.65
Board [5c Jh 4s Ad 8c]
Seat 1: Renz49 folded before Flop
Seat 2: Gory Blood folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Thomazzje folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: JOXPO folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: okfiremen (button) showed [Ah Ac] and won ($31.40) with three of a kind, Aces
Seat 6: legionverde (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: CarppiCala (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: jmillerdls folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: uerdinger07 showed [Ks Kc] and lost with a pair of Kings

Hand #920

PokerStars Game #26693820433: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2009/04/03 19:54:44 ET
Table 'Acamar VII' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: rainy8 ($7.75 in chips)
Seat 2: boro1971 ($32.20 in chips)
Seat 3: leener222 ($33.75 in chips)
Seat 4: EdgeTiger ($23 in chips)
Seat 5: HH59 ($11.80 in chips)
Seat 6: yyeeahh ($5 in chips)
Seat 7: rak383 ($35 in chips)
Seat 8: QueChulo ($25.85 in chips)
Seat 9: okfiremen ($25 in chips)
HH59: posts small blind $0.10
yyeeahh: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to okfiremen [Jh Js]
rak383: folds
QueChulo: folds
okfiremen: raises $0.50 to $0.75
rainy8: raises $1 to $1.75
boro1971: folds
leener222: folds
EdgeTiger: folds
HH59: folds
yyeeahh: folds
okfiremen: raises $8.25 to $10
rainy8: calls $6 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($2.25) returned to okfiremen
*** FLOP *** [Qd 9h 5s]
*** TURN *** [Qd 9h 5s] [3s]
*** RIVER *** [Qd 9h 5s 3s] [3c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
okfiremen: shows [Jh Js] (two pair, Jacks and Threes)
rainy8: mucks hand
okfiremen collected $15.10 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $15.85 | Rake $0.75
Board [Qd 9h 5s 3s 3c]
Seat 1: rainy8 mucked [Ac Kh]
Seat 2: boro1971 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: leener222 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: EdgeTiger (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: HH59 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: yyeeahh (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: rak383 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: QueChulo folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: okfiremen showed [Jh Js] and won ($15.10) with two pair, Jacks and Threes

Hand #2000

PokerStars Game #26693315540: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2009/04/03 19:38:48 ET
Table 'Telamon VII' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: bassenzian ($3.95 in chips)
Seat 2: macman440 ($4.15 in chips)
Seat 3: okfiremen ($25 in chips)
Seat 4: BlueMonkey67 ($18.40 in chips)
Seat 5: Diadeninc ($17.20 in chips)
Seat 6: stiaana ($11.60 in chips)
Seat 7: medisonone ($29.90 in chips)
Seat 8: monkeex ($19.85 in chips)
Seat 9: morkgohome ($10.50 in chips)
BlueMonkey67: posts small blind $0.10
Diadeninc: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to okfiremen [Kd Kc]
stiaana: folds
medisonone: folds
monkeex: folds
morkgohome: folds
bassenzian: folds
macman440: folds
okfiremen: raises $0.50 to $0.75
BlueMonkey67: calls $0.65
Diadeninc: calls $0.50
*** FLOP *** [Qs 5s 9c]
BlueMonkey67: checks
Diadeninc: checks
okfiremen: bets $1.75
BlueMonkey67: raises $1.75 to $3.50
Diadeninc: calls $3.50
okfiremen: raises $20.75 to $24.25 and is all-in
BlueMonkey67: calls $14.15 and is all-in
Diadeninc: folds
Uncalled bet ($6.60) returned to okfiremen
*** TURN *** [Qs 5s 9c] [8c]
*** RIVER *** [Qs 5s 9c 8c] [Ah]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
BlueMonkey67: shows [Ts Qc] (a pair of Queens)
okfiremen: shows [Kd Kc] (a pair of Kings)
okfiremen collected $39.05 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $41.05 | Rake $2
Board [Qs 5s 9c 8c Ah]
Seat 1: bassenzian folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: macman440 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: okfiremen (button) showed [Kd Kc] and won ($39.05) with a pair of Kings
Seat 4: BlueMonkey67 (small blind) showed [Ts Qc] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 5: Diadeninc (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 6: stiaana folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: medisonone folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: monkeex folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: morkgohome folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Hand #2082

PokerStars Game #26142400379: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2009/03/19 18:38:34 ET
Table 'Teucer III' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Nawaka ($30.75 in chips)
Seat 2: bagnus ($63.85 in chips)
Seat 4: arockster_13 ($14.50 in chips)
Seat 5: mioamore ($5.80 in chips)
Seat 6: Estoque ($25.30 in chips)
Seat 7: okfiremen ($30.60 in chips)
Seat 8: nookie_85 ($5 in chips)
Seat 9: PLAYBOI23 ($15.35 in chips)
Issshh joins the table at seat #3
Estoque: posts small blind $0.10
okfiremen: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to okfiremen [Th Qs]
nookie_85: folds
PLAYBOI23: folds
Nawaka: calls $0.25
bagnus: folds
arockster_13: folds
mioamore: folds
Estoque: folds
okfiremen: checks
*** FLOP *** [Kd Js 9h]
okfiremen: checks
Nawaka: bets $0.50
okfiremen: raises $0.75 to $1.25
Nawaka: raises $0.75 to $2
okfiremen: raises $1.25 to $3.25
Nawaka: calls $1.25
*** TURN *** [Kd Js 9h] [8s]
okfiremen: bets $4.80
Nawaka: raises $22.45 to $27.25 and is all-in
okfiremen: calls $22.30 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($0.15) returned to Nawaka
*** RIVER *** [Kd Js 9h 8s] [As]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
okfiremen: shows [Th Qs] (a straight, Ten to Ace)
Nawaka: mucks hand
okfiremen collected $58.30 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $61.30 | Rake $3
Board [Kd Js 9h 8s As]
Seat 1: Nawaka mucked [9c 9d]
Seat 2: bagnus folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: arockster_13 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: mioamore (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Estoque (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: okfiremen (big blind) showed [Th Qs] and won ($58.30) with a straight, Ten to Ace
Seat 8: nookie_85 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: PLAYBOI23 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Hand #7528

[#1ThunderFan]

If you need me to convert them or do something special to retrieve them from my database let me know. All of the hands are showing -EV

[Al1]

Here are the results:


Have you the same results? If yes, what's wrong?

[#1ThunderFan]

Here are the results:


Have you the same results? If yes, what's wrong?

Yes those are my results but I guess I am missunderstanding them. When they report -13.11 does that not decrease my EV and in effect saying I got lucky on this hand? I would imagine for these hands the EV should be 0 because the outcome was the correct EV outcome? I guess I dont understand.

[Al1]

Ok, I understand.

No, in fact, it would be 0 only if your opponent was drawing dead (0 outs). But if you take the first hands for example, when you go all in, you were a 74.9% favorite. The correct outcome is to win 74.9% and to lose 25.1%. Of course, in a real hand you are generally either 0% or 100% (sometimes 50% when there is a split). In this case, you are 100% because you win. Thus the EV diff shows you that you have won 13.11$ in excess in the 27.35$ profit (54.70$ pot), that's the equity of your opponent.

Understand?

In fact, when you win a pot where you are the favorite but you opponent is not drawing dead, you are also "lucky" when you win it, even if you are the favorite. Because, you opponent has also a little equity.

[#1ThunderFan]

Ah I see. Was not thinking of it that way. So if I understand you correctly the EV$ Diff is meerly the diffrence between the expected outcome over the long run and the actual outcome. It all seems so simple now.

[Al1]

Ah I see. Was not thinking of it that way. So if I understand you correctly the EV$ Diff is meerly the diffrence between the expected outcome over the long run and the actual outcome. It all seems so simple now.

Yeha.

Check this thread too: http://208.109.95.123/forum/showthread.php?t=4913

[#1ThunderFan]

Yah I was misinterpretting the EV as well. I was, for some reason, thinking it was saying I was getting it in bad and wasnt thinking about it being the actual EV diffrence between the hands. (no clue why considering it said EV DIFF Thanks again!