Hero Bluffs River, Success Percentage?
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  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
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    60

    Default Hero Bluffs River, Success Percentage?

    Is it possible to create a Notecaddy Definition, which shows the Percentage when Hero Bluffs (has Air or Nothing), the oppenents will fold.
    I want to look at this as a kind of Population Tendency and look as Bluff Success Metric, if Heros Bluffs are working.

    Can you give me some help, ideas, or workaround, how I can create this kind of stat?

    Thanks so much Andreas

  2. #2
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    67

    Default

    Hi!

    You are asking for one of the million dollar questions in poker. If I bluff how many times will he fold?

    There are a lot of stats in Notecaddy that provide info to answering that question, with answer to % of time a villain calls river bets by sizing (usually those stats also present info on what hands villain had to call with). And you get the answer to how many times he folds to each size as well.

    So to answer your question. As far as I am aware there is not such stat created, could be done with a lot of work probably, but there is a lot more to a river bluff than just a bet or a call. size and hands they call with for various sizes tells me a lot more than just a metric if he folds enough to be +EV to bluff. Thats also basic poker math. To figure out if a villain is call happy or not you can use WTSD and $WTSD together with agression its a good combo to answer that question as well.

    And have a look at the Situational views - River play. Lots to take away there for river play as well.

    Best regards,

    jahrumble
    Last edited by jahrumble; 09-07-2021 at 01:46 PM.

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