Chips (EV adjusted) calculation error?
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  1. #1
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    Default Chips (EV adjusted) calculation error?

    I have trouble understanding a calculation in Chips (EV adjusted). I have a hand in a heads up SNG tournament, which gets in for all the chips (1000 in total) on the flop with 77 % equity. Yet the amount in Chips (EV Adjusted) is only 17?

    When I calculate, I get 270 Chips (EV adjusted) rather than 17. Since my equity is 77%*1000 chips minus the 500 I have invested, when alle the money goes in. Also, the cEV Diff is wrong by the same amount: it is minus 483 for the hand.

    Does anyone know what might be causing this, or whether there is something I am missing?

  2. #2
    *** HM3! *** fozzy71's Avatar
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    This problem description sounds very familiar. Did you post it on some other forum or send it to us in a support ticket/email recently?

    We can't answer that unless you send us the actual original hand history file for testing with un-cropped screenshots of the hand in the HM3 reports and hand history viewer with all those details you posted here.

    Please try all the steps in this FAQ. If you continue to have problems please zip and email the problem original hand histories and tournament summaries to us as instructed. Make sure you also include screenshots of your reports/filters and a detailed description by tournament number, session, hole cards, filter, stat, etc. of some of the errors we need to test.

  3. #3
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    @fozzy71

    Yes, I did send the exact same question in an email to support yesterday. Decided to give it a try here as well, as I thought there was a chance it was a problem which other users of HM2 had experienced and knew a solution or explanation to.

    I have already sent the original hand history with screen shots of the filters and stats I am using, when viewing this hand. Do you need me to re-send or send additional info?

    Btw, I see you refer to HM3 in your answer. This problem occurred in HM2.

  4. #4
    *** HM3! *** fozzy71's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thomasonlinepoker View Post
    @fozzy71

    Yes, I did send the exact same question in an email to support yesterday. Decided to give it a try here as well, as I thought there was a chance it was a problem which other users of HM2 had experienced and knew a solution or explanation to.

    I have already sent the original hand history with screen shots of the filters and stats I am using, when viewing this hand. Do you need me to re-send or send additional info?

    Btw, I see you refer to HM3 in your answer. This problem occurred in HM2.
    I forwarded that ticket to one of our testers as I am not very well versed in equity calculations. Unfortunately, even if it is a bug with HM2 it isn't something likely to be fixed before the HM2 End of Life at the end of this year as we have a number of other higher priority HM2 bug tickets that have been open far longer. All development of new features, tools and game type support will be focused on HM3. We will continue to support HM2 for bug fixes and parser updates until an end of life (“EOL”) date of December 31, 2020. See this FAQ for more information.

    I recall that I imported it to HM2 and duplicated your results, then imported it to HM3 and got different results. HM3 shows it as 267 cEV:



    I would suggest you give the HM3 free 15 day trial a test and see how you like it. It has much more accurate Equity calculations that we share with PT4 and update any reported bugs for regularly.

    By purchasing HM2 you can upgrade to HM3 with a 25% discount before October 15th 2020. To use the discount please login to your HM account on our website and add the available discounted upgrade option to the cart and complete the purchase. You can see our upgrade policy FAQ here. And our HM3 Annual Support & Maintenance policy FAQ here. Important: The Annual Support & Maintenance is FREE for the first year with the purchase or upgrade.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by fozzy71 View Post
    I forwarded that ticket to one of our testers as I am not very well versed in equity calculations. Unfortunately, even if it is a bug with HM2 it isn't something likely to be fixed before the HM2 End of Life at the end of this year as we have a number of other higher priority HM2 bug tickets that have been open far longer. All development of new features, tools and game type support will be focused on HM3. We will continue to support HM2 for bug fixes and parser updates until an end of life (“EOL”) date of December 31, 2020. See this FAQ for more information.

    I recall that I imported it to HM2 and duplicated your results, then imported it to HM3 and got different results. HM3 shows it as 267 cEV:



    I would suggest you give the HM3 free 15 day trial a test and see how you like it. It has much more accurate Equity calculations that we share with PT4 and update any reported bugs for regularly.

    By purchasing HM2 you can upgrade to HM3 with a 25% discount before October 15th 2020. To use the discount please login to your HM account on our website and add the available discounted upgrade option to the cart and complete the purchase. You can see our upgrade policy FAQ here. And our HM3 Annual Support & Maintenance policy FAQ here. Important: The Annual Support & Maintenance is FREE for the first year with the purchase or upgrade.
    Ok, so basically HM3 produces accurate equity calculations while HM2 does not. I have actually suspected this in the past, as I have seen similar situations where the player who gets the money all in with a very small percentage, is not awarded a near large enough negative Adjusted EV (though, I was too lazy to write support about it before!).

    I guess I will need to buy HM3 if I want numbers I can trust. Also, since HM2 will reach its EOL date soon.

  6. #6
    *** HM3! *** fozzy71's Avatar
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    Yes, HM2 has always had a number of issues with it's EV calculations over the years for different sites/hands (like the Party Poker EV bug we just fixed this morning for the next HM2 update) which is a big reason why we use the parser (import, tournament detection, and equity calculations) of our sister company's PT4 product in HM3. HM2 also had an inherit bias in it's EV formula that PT4/HM3 do not that is explained in detail below that you may want to be aware of when testing HM3 in our free trial.

    HM3 uses the same equity code as PT4 now which is more accurate and less biased than the code we used for equity in HM2.

    In a hand where a player is all-in but other players are not, net adjusted results are not calculated. When one player is all-in preflop and other players are not, then they usually have the option to act postflop and this means that sometimes one of them will fold. Having the option to fold* after another street is dealt means that in the long run there will be more strong hands which get to showdown and less weak hands. If we were to calculate net adjusted results in hands like this it would introduce a systematic bias (because there will be more known strong hands) so we exclude all hands like this from net adjusted calculations. You can read more about this here.

    *Note: Attempting to calculate adjusted results when unknown but folded cards already called the all-in also introduce a bias into the results so HM3 does not make these calculations in any situation where a player calls the all-in and later folds (even if it's on the same street).

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