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  1. #1
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    Default "won or lost bbs" still has a bug?

    I searched through the forum and I see that other users are / were experiencing problems with this filter but I think my specific problem hasn't been discussed yet.

    In MTTs, when I put as filters: "Allin on turn (or earlier)" + "player won or lost bbs is less than 21" I get a very strange result. On a 270k HH DB I get 6.6k results with EV bb/100 = 107 and effective bb/100 = -4.60, with STD DEV at 11.70.

    I calculated the STD DEV on the total number of hands (multiplying STD DEV by the square root of the total number of hands) and as a result I get a sigma 7.78 (!) from the mean. That's like 1 chance in 390 BILLION to run that bad, lol.

    I'm running like hell for sure, but I think there must definitely be some problems with this stat, otherwise the site MUST be rigged against me, lol, and I am not really ready to believe that, honestly (we are talking about pokerstars, not some shady chinese site).

    I checked between the results shown and all seems fine, all pots seem to be in the 0-21bbs range and allin on turn or earlier.

    Can you please check into that for me?
    TY!
    Last edited by onelouder11; 12-13-2018 at 08:45 AM.

  2. #2
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    Default

    here's how the graph looks like

    Attachment 163110

  3. #3
    HM2! udbrky's Avatar
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    Default

    A) Please try to vacuum/analyze and reindex your database.

    B) If you continue to have problems, try the following:

    Try creating a new DataBase and import a small portion of your \HM2Archive so you can see if the problem exists in the new DB.

    If the new database seems to work properly, it sounds like your database might be corrupt. Please continue to use the new database and import the rest of your hands using the steps above. This is why regular backups are a good idea. If your database becomes corrupt you can restore a backup and only have to import the most recent hands (that were played after the backup was created) and edit any tournament results if necessary. I recommend keeping at least the most recent 2 or 3 backups in case the most recent one does not restore properly you can try the previous backup.

    Here is a FAQ explaining how to backup your database and all settings in one easy step.

    C) If none of that helps please zip and email the problem hand histories, with a link to this thread and your forum name, to us using the 'Contact Support' link.
    Regards udbrky (Chris)

  4. #4
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    Default

    Ok, I've done all you suggested and nothing changed, so I sent a ticket to support with HH and all. TY

  5. #5
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    Default

    Hi, I got a response from your tech support and his results are pretty much the same as mine. He showed me also the HM3 results and they are very similar too. Unfortunately, due to the upload limit of the forum, I could only send 10mb of hands, so we could confrontate results for only about 60k hands.
    In the end I think it's pretty clear that this is a bug in HM.
    In my last 200k hands I get 5498 results with -0.45bb/100 effective and 110.11 EV bb/100, with a standard deviation of 11.30.
    That's 7.2 sigma from the mean, and that means 1 in 400 billion runs. It HAS to be a bug.
    Can some other MTT player run the filter and post his results? Just to have confirmation of the bug.
    The filter is: allin on turn (or earlier) = true AND won or lost bbs is less than 20.
    Ty.

  6. #6
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    Another player kindly shared his results and he is having the same absurd data on a much larger sample. Please fix that! it is kind of an important stat to check how a player is running in late stages...
    ty!

  7. #7
    HM2! udbrky's Avatar
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    Have you found a specific hand that is not right? If so, zip and send it to us. We have been testing the sample and are not finding anything.
    Regards udbrky (Chris)

  8. #8
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    No, as I said all the hands showed in the results seem to be right (right bbs lost or won, right equity etc.). Looking at the graph it seems like it isn't a matter of single hands but a general trend of effective bbs won: they stay too low.
    lessthan20.png

    (Please don't forget to set HM2 to show graph in bbs, not chips! - chips are not significant in MTTs, as bbs grow at every next level).

    As I mentioned I had another player showing me his results and they are super off, in the same manner. His results also are in the 1 in 400 billion likehood ballpark. So it must be 100% a bug of the filter.
    Last edited by onelouder11; 12-21-2018 at 10:07 AM.

  9. #9
    HM2! udbrky's Avatar
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    This is what I get for All in on the turn in big blinds in the sample that you sent.

    graph.PNG

    What do you get?
    Regards udbrky (Chris)

  10. #10
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    Default

    I get exactly the same results:

    allinonturnnobs.PNG

    In the end this overall graph for allin on turn or earlier seems reasonable but its plausibility looks like the result of two bugs: with <20 bbs won or lost effective bbs won are too low and with >20bbs won or lost effective bbs seem to be too high, so the two things kinda compensate in the overall graph.

    By the way the most unrealistic results are by far those with under 20bbs won or lost, due to the lesser std deviation of the hands (std deviation is bigger with more bbs in play. Knowing the expected value, std dev is used to calculate how probable are the results obtained: in this sample, results with <20bbs are a 3.45 standard deviations from the mean, = 1/5000ish runs, while with >20bbs it's a 1.37 sigma, = 1/10ish runs). The bigger the sample, the worst it gets, with totally unrealistic results on my 300k hands for <20bbs (1/400 billion runs) and totally acceptable for >20bbs (1/5 runs).

    I hope to have been sufficiently clear, as english is not my mother language.
    Ty.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by onelouder11; 12-22-2018 at 01:07 PM.

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