counting/interpeting stats bad?
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  1. #1
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    Default counting/interpeting stats bad?

    Hi,
    I have 47 flop cbet OOP, and 57 "skip flop cb and check-fold oop"
    but it doesnt make sanse

    if I have 47Fcbet oop, then I check in 53%, so if I will go then check-fold in 99%, then my "skip flop cb and check-fold oop" should have 0.53*0.99=52%, but I see 57%? You understand? I cant get number 57 check-fold when I check in 53%

    Maybe only make sense you mean with this statistics: fold WHEN check, and NO check-fold, its big different

    thx

  2. #2
    You're out! udbrky's Avatar
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    I'm not understanding where some of the numbers are coming from.

    The skip cbet and check-fold means that you didn't cbet and faced a bet when you checked and you folded.

    You won't face a bet every time that you check. So let's say you have the opportunity to cbet 100 times.

    You cbet 47 and check 53.

    In the 53 times you check, the villain bets 50% of the time (round to 27 times). You fold 67% of the time (18 times).

    So in total, out of those 100 times, 47 you bet, 18 you check-fold, 26 it checks through on the flop, and 9 you either check-call or check-raise.

    So your check-fold stat would be 67% still, because the stat is based off the number of opportunities you have to perform that action. So make sure you are always comparing an action and it's anti-action, given equal opportunities to perform it.

    You're comparing to overall actions - which would be how many times that you can cbet are you check-folding. This is not correct.
    Regards udbrky (Chris)

  3. #3
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    sorry but I still dont understand it.

    I WANT ONLY SIMPLE KNOW, WHAT IS MY REAL X/F IN %. OR AT LEAST FOLD WHEN CHECK (AS PFR)

    In the 53 times you check, the villain bets 50% of the time (round to 27 times). You fold 67% of the time (18 times).
    Okay I check in 53 (53%) times, and when I check, then I go in 67% fold. (how frequently villian bet, isnt important I think, simply if villian bet I go fold in 67%) And if I check, and villian also check, then my x/f, x/c, x/r, should have still same value. true?
    So my check-fold is 0.53*0.67=35% and fold when check 67% ->>>>>>>>>> AND THIS NUMBERS WANT GET/FIND.
    and in 100-67=33% times I go check-call, or check-raise.

    this is simple and I think correct mathematics, other values then this are useless. And If HEM count differently, then in my opinion, it isnt max EV for poker players and should change it.


    Simply I cant have 57% x/f when I check/miss cbet in 53%, I can only have 57% fold when check -> and if isnt stat "skip flop cb and check-fold oop" fold when check, then its bullshit useless stat.
    Last edited by HuB1xx; 08-13-2015 at 11:30 AM.

  4. #4
    You're out! udbrky's Avatar
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    It IS important.

    Your times checking if they don't bet is just how many times you don't cbet.

    If they don't bet when you check, YOU CAN'T CHECK AGAIN!

    It doesn't make sense to ask what you're asking.

    Think of it like 3bets. It only makes sense to ask how often you 3bet when you CAN 3bet, not for every hand.

    Stats are based on the opportunity to perform that stat. We won't change this. It would render stats useless.
    Regards udbrky (Chris)

  5. #5
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    I see, I understood point what you want to say me yet, sorry.

    So in total, out of those 100 times, 47 you bet, 18 you check-fold, 26 it checks through on the flop, and 9 you either check-call or check-raise.
    okay understand, my check-fold is 18
    So your check-fold stat would be 50% still
    but dont understand why you there said, my check-fold stat would be 50% ?

    in my case
    Hi,
    I have 47 flop cbet OOP, and 57 "skip flop cb and check-fold oop"
    is the number 57% like the number 18??? I hope yes, thank you.

  6. #6
    You're out! udbrky's Avatar
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    In the example I gave, I used 100 opportunities.

    All of our stats are % of opportunities.

    I corrected the 50% typo.

    Your check-fold in my example is not 18%. It means that 18 times in those 100 hands,you check-folded.

    BUT you couldn't check-fold 100 times, because you cbet 47 and your opponent did not always bet when you checked. So you check-folded 18 times out of the 27 times (67%) when the opponent bet when you checked. Check-Fold is a 2-step stat. It requires you to first check, then an opponent to bet, and you to fold vs that bet. You perform two actions.
    Regards udbrky (Chris)

  7. #7
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    so, "skip flop cbet and check-fold oop" = fold when check when he bet and I fold (?) (so in your case will be 67%)
    Therefore I cant combine clear stat as check*fold...

    hmmm I am unhappy, lets say I want call cbet OTF, and bet vs missed cbet OTT (=float). If the player have "skip turn cb and check-fold oop" 99%, then its look nice no? But, if he miss cb OTT in 2%, then propably float not will be +EV. You understand what I want to say? Previously I would count it, like 0.1*0.99 = 9% x/f -> but if this is shit and not correct counting, then how to find some ration between check and fold?

    edit: I am propably idiot the statistics "skip turn cb" counted this problem no? (I thinked villian cbet OTT in 98% and fold when check in 99%, but in statistics "skip turn cb and check-fold" is this ratio counted no?
    Last edited by HuB1xx; 08-14-2015 at 08:42 AM.

  8. #8
    You're out! udbrky's Avatar
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    The problem is, you're wanting 2 stats to = 100% that can't. You're looking for stats to show you given a static number of opportunities, but not all stats have the same number of opportunities.

    I don't understand what the .1*.99 is there. I do not see a 10% anywhere in the post. I'm confused about the second paragraph completely.

    The third paragraph can be completely true. What it would be saying is, the villain cbet 98% of the time on the turn, but when he checked and faced a bet, 99% of those times, he folded.

    So he cbets the flop 1,000,000 times AND sees the turn (notice that the further along, there are more previous actions that have to have occurred). He cbets 980,000 (98%). And checks 20,000 times (2%). Of that 20k times he checks, let's say he faces a bet 50% of the time (10,000). He folds to 99% of these bets (9900).

    You do sound like you want the check-fold stats. But, you need to accept that it's based on the # of times you COULD check-fold, not the number of times you checked. Otherwise, you just want to know # of times checked.
    Regards udbrky (Chris)

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by HuB1xx View Post

    I WANT ONLY SIMPLE KNOW, WHAT IS MY REAL X/F IN %. OR AT LEAST FOLD WHEN CHECK (AS PFR)


    udbrky writes three very important statements:
    -(Check% + Bet% + Call% + Fold%) does NOT automatically equal 100%
    For example you would assume Fold to Cbet % + Call Cbet % + Raise Cbet % = always 100%. But it's not,
    -as the stats are not related to VPIP (/or PFR), they're not even linked to the total number of hands played. They're based on the number of opportunities.
    In my Fold to Cbet % + Call Cbet % + Raise Cbet % example, you will often not have the opportunity to raise. (for example when your opponent Cbets allin, or another player moves allin)
    -As a result Fold to Cbet %, Call Cbet % and Raise Cbet % are not based on the same number of hands.
    -This applies to all stats. Including VPIP and PFR! (both HoldemManager and PokerTracker use this method with stats based on opportunities)

    -The effect will be more noticeable in games with a lot of allins: CAP games, shortstack games, STTs (especially TURBO and HYPER TURBO) etc. It can even occur that the PFR value is higer than the VPIP value because of this.


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