I use HEM version 1.13.01 Internal. I have some doubts concerning the accuracy of the EV adjusted graph.I have played over 1000 STTs and as you can see in the graph below my adjusted EV is around 21%. My actual EV is 1%. This differential is huge. I have also used the ROISimulator software to identify the probability of this happening - it does not assign even a fraction of a % to this differential. In fact not only is my global profit massively below expectation, it is also below expectation for every daily session I have played (always at least 50 STTs).
Can you please comment on this? Is the EV calculation accurate in HEM? I play at 888.com. Could the games not be 'honest' there? I understand that variance is larger than we imagine but it is the shear constancy of a flat line for actual profit versus a smooth upward trajectory for the EV adjusted. Is 1000 + games not enough?
I welcome any comments.
Thank you.