Suggestion: Advanced All-In EV Calculation Feature

[Gav800]

Hey,

I'm sure that this has been discussed before, but I did a quick search for it and found no results.

When it comes to all-in EV, I find that my run good/bad is severely inaccurate and it wouldn't be that difficult to program an EV line that displayed EV based upon your equity on each street.

I think this would be the best way of tracking how good/bad you are actually running, rather than just basing it on your equity when all-in, which is only a very small % of hands. The main fault is only really when you are slow-playing, floating streets or other strategy-based plays (rather than just all equity based)

For example:

Preflop

Hero ($1000) has AA 80%
Villain ($1000) has KK 20%

Hero bets $800, Villain calls $800

*** Hero now has +$480 equity ***
*** Villain has -$480 equity ***

Flop comes K X X

Hero bets $200, Villain calls $200

*** Hero now has -$185 equity ***
*** Villain now has +$185 equity ***

.... Eventhough Hero got all-in with only 5% equity, by getting 80% of his stack in with 80% equity, this should be reflected..

I'm sure this would have already been discussed, if someone posts a link to a previous thread and locks this up, that's fine. Otherwise, what does everybody think about software calculating EV based upon this in future?

Thanks,

Gav800

[The Minder]

This is the standard reply:

Why "EV by street" (which people who often see situation D want) is a bad thing:

Example:
- you have AA, you raise to 80% of your stack, donkey calls, flop comes K83 rainbow.
- you then go all-in, no matter the flop, because you're committed.
- out of 100 times, 88 times donkey folds.
- 12 times donkeys calls with a set (33/88/KK).
What shall EV by street wrongly do? It shall do no computations for the 88 times where donkey folded--> "no more calculation".
What shall EV by street do the 12 times where donkey calls with a set? "Show that donkey sucked out and that you got unlucky".

So although you ran obviously really good by having donkey folding 88 times out of 100. EV by street focuses on the 12 times where donkey hit his set and tells that you're running below EV.
This is a well-known gambler fallacy. And this is why "EV by street" is biased.

Note: Tristanblue writes "it's precisely because EV by street does nothing to your adjusted-graph on these cases where the opponent folded that it is wrong".

But what if your opponent never folds? Suppose there are two players A and B.
Player A has AA, B has KK. (both have $100 stacks). They commit half their stack preflop and the flop comes AK6. Player B (KK has 1 "out") to win the hand.
If I would play this hand I would always make sure I'm allin on the turn.
However Player X always commits the rest of his stack on the flop and turn *except for one dollar*. And he commits on the river.
Of course, 4% of the time, the rivercard is the case King. Player X's EV Diff is always 0. (because he goes allin on the river)
My EV Diff (I go allin on the turn) is -$4 (96 out of 100 times) and +$96 (4 out of 100 times)
So our EV graph actually looks exactly the same after 100 of these hands.
(-4 * 96 + 96 * 4 = also equals 0!) So the EV outcome (in the long-term) is the same no matter how you play the hand. And no matter which type of EV calculation you use.

More info here http://forums.holdemmanager.com/mana...tml#post202332

[Gav800]

Thanks for the response, as I thought, this has probably already been discussed in-depth and decided that it's not worth changing the way it's calculated.

I've noticed how much I get stiffed on EV lately in playing CAP PLO games.... because when you flop the nuts, you can't shove, EV is never what it should be.


Stacks - $100

Preflop, raise to $30, villain calls (Pot $60)

Say Hero flops straight + flush draw (75%), Villain flops set (25% for example)....

Villain checks, Hero bets $60, Villain calls $60 (Pot $180)

Turn - Villain makes full house.

Villain checks, hero bets $10 (all-in), Villain calls (Pot $200)

Based on All-In EV, the Hero is considered to not be running badly, and EV diff = $0..... In reality, the Hero got $90 of his $100 stack in reasonably ahead.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

"The AA vs 88 on K 8 3.... but villain always folds when he misses the set" arguement.....

This is true and I guess if you can't see the Villains cards, then there's no way you'll ever know if you were +EV or -EV.....

I think calculating your equity on all streets based upon what cards are known would still be more accurate than solely when all-in.

[The Minder]

I think calculating your equity on all streets based upon what cards are known would still be more accurate than solely when all-in.

I appreciate that there is a 'gut feel' logic to this... but that's all it is.

[Patvs]

If you play CAP PLO, or any pot limit game for that matter. And especially if you play fixed limit Holdem, All-in EV is not the ideal EV method.

"EV by street" would be. But EV by street has one big problem:
It's only possible to calculate it if the hand goes to showdown and you get to see the hands for all players involved in building the pot.

Often it's not possible to do this. For example:
Two players commit half their stack preflop + on the flop.
The board comes runner, runner flush. Player A goes allin (with a flush). Player B (who had flopped a set... or did he?) folds his hand.

Or a shortstack manages to go allin preflop (or on the flop). Two bigstacks call and continue the betting. On the river, Bigstack A gets Bigstack B to fold.
If you're either the shortstack or Bigstack A, EV by street doesn't work since we don't know what Bigstack B folded.

If you calculate EV by street for all the hands when it is possible, and just don't when it's not, the longterm results won't make any sense. (read: http://forums.holdemmanager.com/mana...tml#post202332 )