How does sample size work
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  1. #1
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    Default How does sample size work

    Can someone help me understand how sample size works on individual stats. Like, I set it to 15 for VPIP and PFR and those show up after 15 hands, but other stats aren't showing up e.g. set AF to 50, people with 100 hands still don't have AF showing.

    So I thought ok it must mean sample size of chances to do the certain action i.e. the number in brackets on the HUD popup. But then even setting AF to 15 still doesn't show up for some people with 30+ samples for AF.

    Does sample size work off of hands played or opportunities they've had for that specific stat? I'm confused. Thanks.

  2. #2
    HM Support Patvs's Avatar
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    Sample size looks at how often you've faced a specific stat.
    So, let's take "Fold BB to Steal" as an example.

    Min sample: 3

    As soon as you've faced a steal 3 times when you were in the big blind--> this stat will show up.
    This will take a minimum of 3 orbits! (18 hands in 6max, 27 hands in full ring).

    Though you'll often won't have the opportunity to "Fold BB to Steal" (when a player in early position raises, or another player 3bets, etc.) so with a min sample = 3, it can easily take 50+ hands before this stat will show up.
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  3. #3
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    Thanks. I'm still confused how it determines for AF though. If I set it to 15 does it only show up on people who've seen 15+ flops?

    Here's my HUD stats. What do you think of these min sample sizes?

    VPIP - 15
    PFR - 15
    AF - 15
    Flop Cbet - 10
    Fold to Flop Cbet - 10
    3bet - 15
    Fold to 3bet - 15
    BTN steal - 5 (only one chance per orbit IF nobody else opens)

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by sandman369 View Post
    Thanks. I'm still confused how it determines for AF though. If I set it to 15 does it only show up on people who've seen 15+ flops?
    Yes, that is how it should work.


    Here's my HUD stats. What do you think of these min sample sizes?

    VPIP - 15
    PFR - 15
    AF - 15
    Flop Cbet - 10
    Fold to Flop Cbet - 10
    3bet - 15
    Fold to 3bet - 15
    BTN steal - 5 (only one chance per orbit IF nobody else opens)
    We (I in particular) generally do not give strategy advice but Pat might reply when he has time or some other customers might be able to assist with these numbers.

  5. #5
    HM Support Patvs's Avatar
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    Your sample sizes are really high (except for VPIP / PFR).

    Though it all depends on what type of game you play (HU vs 6max vs full ring), how many tables you play, how often you face the same opponents.

    Do you mass-multitable? Do you prefer to only have really useful stats on other regulars, or you'd like to quickly spot a fish who only plays 1 table, who's new, and who will definitely go broke within 50 hands?


    Flop Cbet / Fold to Flop Cbet / Fold to 3bet / 3bet, BTN Steal: these stats are all too important for them to only show up with a 15-sample size. (which could take more than 200 hands for some opponents)

    I actually have the same stats in my HUD (also have: BB Fold to Steal, Turn Cbet, TOT Fold vs Resteal, TOT ReSteal): I have min samples set to 2, 3 or 4. (and wouldn't use a value of 5 or higher)
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  6. #6
    HM Support Patvs's Avatar
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    If an opponent Folds to a Flop Cbet 100% (min sample = 4) vs an opponent who Folds to a Flop Cbet 100% (min sample = 15)-->
    it won't matter for you, you'll still always cbet against him.


    If an opponent Folds to a Flop Cbet 75% (min sample = 4) vs an opponent who Folds to a Flop Cbet 75% (min sample = 15)-->
    nothing changes right? You'll still cbet against him.


    If an opponent Folds to a Flop Cbet 50% (min sample = 4) vs an opponent who Folds to a Flop Cbet 50% (min sample = 15)-->
    You won't always cbet anymore . But the difference in min sample makes no difference.

    But with the lower min sample, you can spot these stats (to exploit your opponent) a lot faster.
    The only danger is when min sample is set to 0 (or 1... or maybe even 2) and you make the wrong decision because a stat shows 0% or 100% for an opponent, based on only 1 sample.


    I love opponents I have no stats on. Because my min stats are so low (2, 3 or 4), I'll grab any opportunity to test my opponents to see how often they will: Fold to Flop Cbet and BB Fold to Steal.
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