HM2: "$EV" versus "Luck Adjusted Winnings" in Tournament reports???

[pokertx]

What is the difference between the "$EV" stat in the "Tournament Results" report and selecting the checkbox "Luck Adjusted Winnings" in the "Tournament Winnings Graph" report?

I thought they would be the same thing, but they are clearly calculated differently on purpose unless there is a bug with the way one is reporting.

[pokertx]

By the way, I'm playing Hyper Turbo HU SNG on PokerStars, $100-$1000 buyin.

[pokertx]

By the way, I found this post by Pat which I've also affixed his response to the bottom of this post. Can someone confirm that this a proper response to my question above. It seems to apply, but I'm not entirely sure. And if so, I'm having trouble wrapping my brain around which one is the more accurate representation for how I'm doing in these HU SNG, as they aggregating to quite a different overall results.

1. Example:
$10 SNG. 2 players.
player 1 has 500 chips (opponent with 22)
player 2 has 1500 chips (=you with AA)
You go allin (preflop allin with AA vs 22 = 80% vs 20%)
So you have 80% to win $20.
And 20% to double up your opponent and end up with 1000 chips.
1000 chips = $10 equity.

So your "EV" is (80% * $20) + (20% * $10) = +$18

As a result if you win the hand your EV Diff will be -$2 (18-20)
If you lose the hand the EV Diff is +$18 (18-0)

The Luck Adjusted Winnings is the SUM of all the EV Diffs


2. The $EV Won can be confusing when it's negative and a larger number than the actual buyin, or positive and a larger number than the actual first price money.
You have some extreme situations (often in Double or Nothing and in SUPER TURBO SNGs)
Extreme examples:
$169 buyin SUPER TURBO, $Won = $720 (1th place)---> $EV Won = -$196 (a negative value, that is higher than the actual buyin)
$5.20 buyin DoN, $Won = $10---> $EV Won = $11.35 (more than you can actually win)
But allowing these values (outside of this range) will result in more accurate long term results.

[pokertx]

Also, the link in this particular post by Pat is broken and might be of some use but I can't view it. Broken Link: http://forums.holdemmanager.com/mana...ituations.html

HM2: Tournaments:
equity (ICM model which takes into account the price distribution) minus the change in equity--> is $EV Diff
actual outcome of the tourny minus the SUM of all the $EV Diffs--> $EV

[pokertx]

When I add the "ICM Diff" stat to my Tournament Results report I see that it is exact same value as the "$EV" stat. But in HUSNGs the chips value is a percentage of the cash prize and doesn't change during the match (There are no ICM situations). So in essence isn't the $EV stat completely irrelevant for a 2-person winner take all scenario?

[pokertx]

bump, cause no answer yet

[Patvs]

In HM2: $EV and $ICM Diff are the same. You can add both to a report, they're identical in results.

Luck Adjusted Winnings in the graph is the same as in HM1.
The Luck Adjusted Winnings is the SUM of all the EV Diffs

The Luck Adjusted Winnings actually is the SUM of all the EV Diffs + the outcome of the game.
So if you play a $10 buyin game, and the SUM of the EV Diffs is +$20. If you lose the game (you win $0)--> The Luck Adjusted Winnings is +$20. (20+0)

If the SUM of the EV Diffs is -$5. You finish in second place winning $27--> The Luck Adjusted Winnings is $22. (27-5)

--



in HM2: the graphs are showing the correct Luck Adjusted Winnings.
But in the reports, EV/ICM are not the same as Luck Adjusted winnings. It's only the SUM of the EV diffs. And doesn't take into account the outcome of the game. In additional for STTs, HM2 sometimes uses the wrong ICM structure. (Fifty50s detected as Double or Nothings for example). This will be fixed in a future update.


--

But in HUSNGs the chips value is a percentage of the cash prize and doesn't change during the match (There are no ICM situations). So in essence isn't the $EV stat completely irrelevant for a 2-person winner take all scenario?

HoldemManager uses All-in EV. So as you already pointed out with my example:

$10 SNG. 2 players.
player 1 has 500 chips (opponent with 22)
player 2 has 1500 chips (=you with AA)
etc.

Using this model works perfectly for any STT, including HU. There are ICM situations. For any All-in hand.

[pokertx]

In your example "If the SUM of the EV Diffs is -$5. You finish in second place winning $27--> The Luck Adjusted Winnings is $22. (27-5)"

If I apply that to HU winner take all, second place wins $0. Therefore, if the sum of the EV Diff is -$5 then Luck Adjusted Winnings would be -$5 by your example, which would match $EV and $ICM Diff, both of which would be -$5 as well. But this isn't the case with me, there is a big discrepancy between the two. Have I misunderstood your example?

Below you will see a screenshot of the two. What is meant by my '$EV' being highly positive and my 'Luck Adjusted Winnings' being nosedive negative? It doesn't make sense to me how the sum of the differences can have me as a favorite (or am I analyzing this wrong) but when outcome is factored in I'm a dog.

Perhaps in laymans terms, can you just give me an explanation simply put, do I suck because the graph says I suck? (I'm a big boy, you don't have to sugar coat for me if that's the case!)


doisuckornot.png

[Patvs]

The graph is right. (and shows you're just running bad)

The $EV / $ICM Diff stats show an incorrect value. It's a bug on our side. It won't require you to reimport the hands, but the stat currently uses a wrong formula, which we'll fix in the next update.

[pokertx]

Ready for your head to explode? I ran the exact same report today to look at my graph once again (can be verified by the filter above the graph and the number of tournaments shown). Look at the All-In EV now.. close to $5K positive. Wow.. how do you explain this one....

Results2.png