Doubts regarding All in EV calculations in HU encounters at 6 man SNGs

[sashasharpley]

I am wondering whether HEM 1 is calculating HU all in EV correctly as my actual all in results are wildly different to EV adjusted. I play 6 max normal speed sngs at Party. Over the course of 2 years I have played 6077 such games. Starting chips is 2000 and the payout is 60/40. When I use the reporting tool and filter for this type of tourney and filter for 2 players remaining and for an all in on turn or before, it shows that there have been 4706 such hands and that I have won 907 chips. However, EV adjusted shows that I 'should' have won 580,036. Now I know that we all tend to underestimated variance but this seems statistically to be highly unlikely.

Can anyone offer an explanation?

Thank you.

[sideshow]

Hi,

please see this FAQ http://faq.holdemmanager.com/questions/120/EV+Explained and if you still think its wrong after seeing this then pplease email us your hand history and point out where the calculation is wrong and we will look into it.

Thanks

[sashasharpley]

I understand how HEM calculates EV perfectly well. And I don't think you really want me to send you 4000+ hand histories. I actually suspect that there is nothing wrong with how HEM calculates EV. What I would really like to know is how statistically likely it is for my actual all in EV to be so different from adjusted EV.

Thank you.

[Patvs]

You should have won 580.036 chips in the
4706 hands (=when allin heads up preflop/flop or turn)

That's only 123 chips per hand.
If your average stack HU is 6000.
123/6000 *100% is only 2% which can just be variance.

ChipEV really isn't very meaningful in STTs/MTTs, since losing an all-in hand early in the game losing 2000 chips is very different than losing 6000 chips when you're already HU. When you look at how much money you won/lost and your luck adjusted winnings (in actual dollars), the 2% of "bad luck" ChipEV HU can easily be compensated by having only 0.5% "good luck" in the early phases. (that's winning 10 more chips out of 2000 chips on the average all-in hand)

[sashasharpley]

Many thanks for your helpful comments. Helps put it into context for me.