Wrong EV Calculation

1. ## Wrong EV Calculation

I noticed a wrong calculation of the EV in the latest HM Version (1.08.04) for a specific hand.
In HM ver 1.07 the calculation is made correct.

Here are results shown by HM:

Here is the hand:

************************************************** ********
PokerStars Game #28253106577: Hold'em No Limit (\$3/\$6) - 2009/05/16 11:24:29 CET [2009/05/16 5:24:29 ET]
Table 'Procyon IV' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: wimnl (\$438 in chips)
Seat 2: WCG|Rider (\$618.75 in chips)
Seat 3: KiWiKaKi (\$1131 in chips)
Seat 4: Willi123 (\$732.60 in chips)
Seat 5: Value_King (\$333 in chips)
Seat 6: CapGloval (\$564 in chips)
Seat 7: Hero (\$120 in chips)
Seat 8: bigpack12 (\$1077.40 in chips)
Seat 9: Mike Bullets (\$743.40 in chips)
Mike Bullets: posts small blind \$3
wimnl: posts big blind \$6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [8d 8s]
WCG|Rider: folds
KiWiKaKi: folds
Willi123: folds
Value_King: folds
CapGloval: folds
Hero: raises \$18 to \$24
bigpack12: raises \$42 to \$66
Mike Bullets: folds
wimnl: calls \$60
Hero: raises \$54 to \$120 and is all-in
bigpack12: calls \$54
wimnl: calls \$54
*** FLOP *** [Qd Kh 2d]
wimnl: checks
bigpack12: checks
*** TURN *** [Qd Kh 2d] [2h]
wimnl: checks
bigpack12: bets \$54
wimnl: folds
Uncalled bet (\$54) returned to bigpack12
*** RIVER *** [Qd Kh 2d 2h] [Ad]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Hero: shows [8d 8s] (two pair, Eights and Deuces)
bigpack12: shows [Qc Kc] (two pair, Kings and Queens)
bigpack12 collected \$360 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot \$363 | Rake \$3
Board [Qd Kh 2d 2h Ad]
Seat 1: wimnl (big blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 2: WCG|Rider folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: KiWiKaKi folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Willi123 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Value_King folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: CapGloval folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Hero showed [8d 8s] and lost with two pair, Eights and Deuces
Seat 8: bigpack12 (button) showed [Qc Kc] and won (\$360) with two pair, Kings and Queens
Seat 9: Mike Bullets (small blind) folded before Flop
************************************************** ********

2. Weird, when i imported it, it dosent show any equity, ill escalate this to Mike to look into

3. Have you already found out something? I had the same problems with some others hands, too. I think it just occurs when there are 3 or more players and one folds after another has gone AI.

4. We take the EV from the last street where everybody was all-in. We can't calculate EV for pre-flop because we don't know what the other guy had. Suppose he had 99 - was your EV still 55% of the pot?

5. Well if the 3rd one had 99 I would still have at least about 16% EV of the pot, not 4.5% like calculated in v1.08.04.

And I know that HM can't calculate the chance, that one of the two others folds in one following street or even which one of them.

But instead of taking an estimated EV or the lowest possible EV wouldn't it be better to take the effectively earned amount?

So it would be at least a correctly evaluated not estimated value.

6. Youd need about 7 outs to have 16%, i can only see 2 outs which is approx 4.4% and seems correct to me?

7. I've been all-in preflop.

8. Preflop would have been probably 55%/45% but as Mike mentioned its calculated on the last street of action where you were approx 4% which is correct on that street

9. Ok, now I understand the new system. And it seems to make sense.