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  1. #1
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    Default Why the adjusted Luck EV isn't accurate.

    The luck adjusted EV isn't accurate for many sng types. If one is playing sng's where push/fold is standard, much more emphasis is in on stealing the blinds. Stealing the blinds over and over again, one will often run into better hands but it would be offset due to blind stealing. So if one is running break even on the All-in Luck EV, they should come out ahead in the long run. Now my only problem is getting back up to that damn line in my graphs. Looking at the sng results one can clearly see that winning a tournament, getting it in ahead in every instance, the adjusted EV will almost always be negative. I say "almost" because it is clearly possible to lose with huge hands vs. smaller stacks several times and still end up winning. The same holds true for busting out early, which would almost always show a positive luck adjusted EV.

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  3. #3
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    Wow, thanks for that brilliant response. It was such a clear answer. I couldn't have asked for a better answer great guru of EV. Now, can I please have a real response to my post. I would like to know why I can run like sweaty ass, getting sucked out on over and over, but the goddamn line still drops. Or I can win with the best hand several times and it can go up, down, sideways, turn fucking purple....

    HOW THE FUCK CAN I GET IT IN AS A FAVORITE OVER AND OVER BUT I STAY FAR AWAY FROM THE GODDAMN LINE, WHICH IS ONLY MOVING SIDEWAYS. I'M FUCKING CONFUSED. NOBODY UNDERSTANDS THAT FUCKING CRIMSON PIECE OF SHIT ZIGZAG BITCH. PEOPLE ON 2p2 ARE JUMPING OFF OF BRIDGES BECAUSE THEY THINK THEY ARE RUNNING 200 BUYINS UNDER EXPECTED VALUE. WHY IS THIS SOFTWARE PISSING ME OFF SO MUCH. POSTGRESQL ASS SHIT MAKES ME ERASE MY DATA BASE 400 MOTHER#*$(# TIMES. EVERY TIME A NEW UPDATE COMES OUT I HAVE TO PRACTICALLY BUY A NEW F#)$(%)_ DESKTOP. NOW GODDAMNIT, ANSWER THE FUCKING POST.

  4. #4
    Administrator Rvg72's Avatar
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    Hi, it is math and we have explained it in many, many other posts and when you say it isn't accurate as if it is a fact you are just showing that you don't understand what EV is but that's fine because it can seem complex until you get it. Here is a good example

    First hand of tourney where buyin is $10. Your seat equity is worth $10 at that point. You get it all-in exactly at 50/50. So what does this mean - it means that you have a 50% chance of having a "seat value" of $0 and a 50% chance to have a seat value of probably somewhere around $19 (according to ICM) . So, this means that after going all-in your expected seat value is $9.50. if you lose the all-in you have an equity of $0 so that means you were unlucky by $9.50. If you win your equity is $19 which means you were lucky by $9.50. If there were no other all-ins for the entire SNG and you win it then you win $50 but your EV is $40.50 since you were lucky by $9.50

    I am going to use Caps to emphasize a point: WHENEVER YOU WIN AN ALL-IN (unless you were 100% to win) YOUR WINNINGS IS HIGHER THAN EXPECTATION AND WHENEVER YOU LOSE AN ALL-IN YOUR WINNINGS IS LOWER THAN EXPECTATION.

    Step 1: Calculate expected "Seat Value" after the all-in based on odds and ICM
    Step 2: Compare to actual "Seat Value" after hand
    Step 3: That difference is added for every hand in the tourney where there was an all-in and compared to your actual winnings in the tourney to determine the $EV

    It is completely accurate. It's just math.

    Roy

  5. #5
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    I have a basic understanding of EV, but itseems that no matter how I run the line is going sideways and I'm running parallel with it minus about 60 bi's. If I win a ton of hands as a favorite the line goes down and shit and that's the confusing thing. I can get sucked out on a TON and the line goes up but my winnings line goes down. How the hell do I get them to meet. How would I be able to have them both RISE because it seems when I win money the line drops and vice vs.. Maybe I'm mistaken and the line is supposed to run verticle idk. You have to understand that this is extremely frustrating especially when playing the super's on Fulltilt. I use sngwiz and analyze my games constantly and well... you get the point. I'm just trying to find out if I'm running like ass basically.

    Thanks

  6. #6
    Senior Member _Loki_'s Avatar
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    this is the first time I've understood this EV stuff

    Thank you groovy Roy


    Michael >< )))>

  7. #7
    Administrator Rvg72's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shemp Hain View Post
    I have a basic understanding of EV, but itseems that no matter how I run the line is going sideways and I'm running parallel with it minus about 60 bi's. If I win a ton of hands as a favorite the line goes down and shit and that's the confusing thing. I can get sucked out on a TON and the line goes up but my winnings line goes down. How the hell do I get them to meet. How would I be able to have them both RISE because it seems when I win money the line drops and vice vs.. Maybe I'm mistaken and the line is supposed to run verticle idk. You have to understand that this is extremely frustrating especially when playing the super's on Fulltilt. I use sngwiz and analyze my games constantly and well... you get the point. I'm just trying to find out if I'm running like ass basically.

    Thanks
    Instead of looking at your historical results try just looking at this past month or week or whatever and you should see the lines crossing and meeting more often. If the red line is below then you are running good, if it is above then you are running bad.

    Roy

  8. #8
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    A good exercise in this is to look at your tourney data view and find a tourney where the real winnings and $EV is off by a lot. Click on this tourney so that all the hands appear in the section below and then sort by $EV Diff.

    Take the hands with the biggest +/- difference here and replay them and in the replayer click on ICM

    The ICM window will show you

    1) the payouts
    2) The Start and End ICM value of your chips
    3) The section with:

    EV Result Luck Hand Player

    Shows you the following

    EV = What your hand should have been worth after the hand
    Result = What it ended up being worth
    Luck = The difference

    If you add up that Luck value for every hand in the tourney and add this to the real winnings you get the $EV for the tourney.

    Roy

  9. #9
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    That's probably one of the best explanations of EV that I have read, but it doesn't help me one iota. I have this huge stumbling block in my head that says "if it's an SnG/MTT and I ain't ITM, then EV has no meaning." Tbh, it doesn't matter how lucky or unlucky you are in a tourney until you make the money, then it has meaning.

    In an MTT you can suck out on everybody time and time again, build up a huge stack, have "luck in the bank", get to the bubble and run into another monster stack and get slammed when your KK goes down to his AA. But why does any of this mean anything when we're only talking about tourney chips that have no value outside the tourney.

    Nope, does nothing for me and I would love it if that idiotic red 'luck' line was off by default.

  10. #10
    Administrator Rvg72's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Minder View Post
    That's probably one of the best explanations of EV that I have read, but it doesn't help me one iota. I have this huge stumbling block in my head that says "if it's an SnG/MTT and I ain't ITM, then EV has no meaning." Tbh, it doesn't matter how lucky or unlucky you are in a tourney until you make the money, then it has meaning.

    In an MTT you can suck out on everybody time and time again, build up a huge stack, have "luck in the bank", get to the bubble and run into another monster stack and get slammed when your KK goes down to his AA. But why does any of this mean anything when we're only talking about tourney chips that have no value outside the tourney.

    Nope, does nothing for me and I would love it if that idiotic red 'luck' line was off by default.
    $EV is turned off for MTT's - we don't calculate $EV for MTT hands because we don't know the full payout details which is required.

    But back to your main point, EV just tries to figure out how much you should have won if you replayed that entire tourney an infinite number of times with the exact same cards and situations and players with the only difference being what happens after there is an all-in.

    For example, in a heads up tourney. You get it all-in with a hand that is a 2 to 1 favorite and lose. Your winnings is -$10 (assuming $10 buyin with no rake for simplicity) but your $EV is $3.35 which is a better measure of how that tourney "should" have gone if you replayed that all-in hand an infinite number of times.

    Roy

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