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pwnurfaceoff
07-01-2011, 06:13 PM
can anyone explain this? ive tried looking on HEM website and cant find anything explaining what this is. its in the tourney graph

fozzy71
07-01-2011, 08:04 PM
Luck Adjusted Winnings compares the change in the equity you have at the beginning of a hand with the end of the hand.
It only is calculated for hands where an all-in situation (before the river) takes place. And only can be calculated for single table tournaments.

Example:
$10 husng -->50% flip--> it works something like this

1500 vs 1500 chips:.

You win the SNG 50% of the time--> and your equity will be $20 (EV Diff = -$10) but 50% of the time you lose and your equity is $0. (EV Diff = +$10)

You Luck Adjusted Winnings will be the SUM of all the EV Diffs + your final equity.

Your final equity will be either $20 (if you win) or $0 (if you lose)
So in this example (1500 vs 1500 chips) the luck adjusted winnings will always be +$10 (no matter if you win or lose)


----

2500 (hero) vs 500 chips:
-->50% coinflip

This time you win the SNG 50% of the time--> and your equity will be $20
but 50% of the time you lose and you will have 2000 chips and your opponent will have 1000 chips.

1500 chips are worth $10 in equity, so when you lose the hand your equity will be $13.33

So your EV is 50% * $20 + 50% * $13.33 = $16.66
Therefore if you WIN the hand--> and your equity is $20 (the EV Diff will be -$3.33) and if you LOSE--> your equity will be $13.33 (EV Diff = +$3.33)


----


Also watch EV video at: http://faq.holdemmanager.com/questions/120/EV+Explained

Read: http://forums.holdemmanager.com/manager-general/24059-ev-not-all-situations.html

pwnurfaceoff
07-06-2011, 11:45 AM
fozzy thank you for the detailed explination. i understand how its calculated but, in laymans terms, can you explain what it means? for example my profit graph has the one line for my profit, but the line for luck adjusted winning is WAY higher. does this mean im running bad or good?

Patvs
07-06-2011, 01:41 PM
The luck adjusted winnings indicate what you 'should have won' if there was no luck involved in poker.

If your luck adjusted winnings line is way above your winnings line, you're running bad.



There is one catch though: If you play a cashgame and have a coinflip AKs vs 22. $100 vs $100 stack. 50% chance you win the hand.
It's easy to state after this one hand your equity in the hand is $0.

If you play a SNG, doubling your stack, doesn't automatically mean you're now twice as likely to win the SNG, or that you'll win two times more money on average. So the Luck Adjusted Winnings line is completely useless if you only look at one hand.. or even only focus at 1 SNG. Or 10. Or 100.
You need to play a lot more (i.e. 500+) for the line to be a fair representation of your predicted winnings.

This is an example graph:

http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/6052/luckj.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/35/luckj.jpg/)

Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)

Pondlife
07-20-2011, 01:45 PM
Can you please clarify how accurate this profit adjusted line is. I appreciate that you need to play 500+ games for any meaningful comparison. However if I play a million STT's will the profit adjusted line be very very accurate? I'm just puzzled that it only works for hands when you go all in and presumably for hands when someone else is involved. So it doesn't calculate anything if you shove to pick up the blinds and nobody calls.

Thanks in advance. :)

Patvs
07-20-2011, 02:19 PM
There are several type of EV calculations.
HoldemManager uses "All-in EV" which can only be calculated for allin hands..
(for the downsides of All-in EV read: http://forums.holdemmanager.com/manager-general/24059-ev-not-all-situations.html )

The most accurate EV is "EV by street", where you would calculate EV for EVERY HAND. The downside to EV by street is, you can only calculate it if you know the holecards of all opponents involved in the hand. (which is rarely the case)

If you shove to pick up the blinds and nobody calls, no EV can be calculated since you don't know what the blinds fold. (they may fold a better hand than you) Only when they call, and there is an allin showdown can allin EV be calculated.

All-in EV still is a very good indicator of your expected winnings. (For both cashgames and STTs)

DeathAndTaxes
07-20-2011, 04:02 PM
Can you please clarify how accurate this profit adjusted line is. I appreciate that you need to play 500+ games for any meaningful comparison. However if I play a million STT's will the profit adjusted line be very very accurate? I'm just puzzled that it only works for hands when you go all in and presumably for hands when someone else is involved. So it doesn't calculate anything if you shove to pick up the blinds and nobody calls.

Thanks in advance. :)

To calculate your EV you need to know the holecards of all opponents. If holecards were revealed for all hands even when players fold then yes one could calculate perfectly what your EV was and thus "luck adjusted" line would be even more accurate.

However that doesn't exist in poker. The only scenario where we know all the information (holecards & complete board) is when there is an all-in. Thus the "luck adjusted" line is for lack of a better term incomplete because it doesn't account for all other instances where chance/variance/luck matter.

That being said a more "complete" luck adjusted calculation is impossible unless you have access to all holecards after all hands. So incomplete or not luck adjusted is better than nothing.

Pondlife
07-20-2011, 07:16 PM
Thanks for the replies. I am confused about the accuracy of the luck adjusted profit line because of the following:- Sharkscope tells me I have played over 9000 STT's with an average buy in of $8 and an average ROI of 7%. Now I have only just started using Holdem Manager and have clocked up 536 STT's at the $7 stake. I am running bad because my graph is lower than my luck adjusted profit line. Howeve,r even looking at the luck adjusted line it is showing me as a losing player. If I go to the trending graph it shows my EV$ROI as -1.35% Considering I have played over 9000 STT's and I haven't jumped up stakes why am I now being shown as a losing player when you remove the luck element? Is it simply that 536 STT's isn't enough? The gap between the sharkscope ROI of 7% and Hold'em manager of -1.35% seems incredibly large even factoring in the relatively small sample of games that Holdem manager has recorded.

Patvs
07-21-2011, 09:31 PM
On which site did you play these 9000 STTs? If you played them on PokerStars, email PokerStars request the:
-handhistories for every game you've ever played + the
-results .asp file with all your results (run a import from file on this file)
So you can see your EV$ROI for all 9000 games.