Error in fold to steal stat

[Daniel]

I think there is an error in the fold to steal stat. This number is, for as I can see, smaller than both the fold to steal in SB and fold to steal in BB, which of course is not possible.

[Patvs]

Fold to steal isn't:
fold to steal in SB + fold to steal in BB (+ fold to steal on BTN)


The reason is each stat is using a completely different sample size of hands.

If you're at a table with an annoying SB (who will always steal if you're in the BB).... with very passive Cutoff and Buttons (who will rarely steal if you're in the SB).... if a steal opportunity arises, your fold to steal in BB stat will carry a lot more weight into the overall Fold to Steal stat, since the fold to steal in BB will be based on a lot more samples.

[Daniel]

I don't get it.

I understand that samples sized differ for each position: CO vs BB, BTN vs SB, SB vs BB etc. But fold to steal in is an average score for when hero is in SB or BB regardless the position of villain.

I'd assume that if fold to steal in BB is 80% with 20 occasions and fold to steal in SB is 85% with 25 occasions, that the total fold to steal would be (80*20+85*25)/(20+25)=82.78%

The fold to steal is therefore a weighted average. But how can the weighted average be lower than the lowest value of the components?

See attached pic, where the the 81 stands for fold to steal, with the pop-up with SB and BB fold stats, 86 and 82%

[Patvs]

If the CO steals..... the BTN fold to steal also exists and also affects the overall "fold to steal" stat.

[Daniel]

I've never heard of fold to steal on the button. Why is the button involved in this? There is nothing to steal from the button (position of course, but no money).

Anyway, if this stat used for the total fold to steal stat, why is there no fold to steal from button itself?

[Patvs]

There is no fold to steal from button, because like you said there is nothing to steal from the button.

But if the CO steals... the action of the button (if he folds) is used for the Fold to Steal stat, therefore the number is lower than the SB/BB fold to steal stats.

[Daniel]

As said above, if you don't steal money from the button, why use this stat for the overall stat? Wouldn't it make sense to calculate total fold to steal only from SB and BB?

[Patvs]

I'm starting to doubt the action of the button has any influence.
Another type of hand / situation must exist which results in a different sample size for Fold to Steal.

I've asked some colleagues if they can clarify this.