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View Full Version : how to really interpret the HUD using bayesian inference



slowyaroll
03-18-2009, 12:02 PM
The HUD is great dont get me wrong. Its just hard to interpret..correctly. I have read the FAQs and the manaual but it still isnt really clarifying HOW you interpret the HUD

For example

if the MP has a VPIP of 25% and limps with 13%, pfr with 13% and raise 1st with 12%, and 3bets with 7% and calls open with 15%. How do i narrow these ranges to get the possible holdings in his range?

If he has a vpip of playing 25% of hands from that position that consists of 66+,A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,A7o+,K9o+,Qto+,Jto

if he pfr with 13% and limps with 13% is he limping with the top 13% of that range and limping with the bottom 13% of that range? So the top 13% would be somewhat a combo of 77+, A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs+,Ato+,Kto+,Qjo

and the bottom 13% would consist of what? thats where im confused

If he raised first from that position with 12% of hands would he be opening with the top 3% of hands? Because his vpip is 25% and he raise 1st with 12%. Therefore 25%*12%=3%. AM i corret or wrong?

If h 3bets with 7% of hands how would you determine which range of hands hes 3betting wit frm that position? If he clalls open with 15% how would you narrow that to get his range?

Basically i dont understand how to narrow the ranges. There really isnt anything on the site that explains how to narrow them correctly using bayesian inference. If someone could help me id greatly appreciate it.

Mike chops
03-18-2009, 02:19 PM
You seem to have the right idea. You could look at the stats for that position and situation the player is facing. E.g. facing a raise in MP he can either fold, cold call or 3-bet and you can get to the ranges from there. The trouble is those stats don't converge as quickly as say VPIP or PFR. What I do is look at how the stats compare with mine and adjust the range up or down depending on whether he tends to play tigher or looser than me.

mksmipalla
03-18-2009, 03:32 PM
This has me confused a little too with how to read some stats. If the way Slowyaroll describes it is correct then that would me that I could not just put somes 3bet % into Pokerstove and get there 3bet range because I need to know what 3% of there vp$ip is to get the range. Not 3% of all hands correct? For example if someone has a Vp$ip of 30% fom the button and a 15% 3bet stat from the button I need to know what 15% of the 30% is to get there range from that position. I could not just out 15% into Poker stove and get the correct range?

slowyaroll
03-18-2009, 06:15 PM
thanks mike chops. Yeah thats what i figured. That i would have to multiply each together to update the opponents new range. But sometimes its confusing because if he vpip 30%, pfr 50%, and 3bets 11%, that means he raises 15% of his hands form that position and 3bets around 2% of his hands. Am i correct? Because half of 30% is 15% and hes 3 betting 11% of that 15% pfr range which comes to approximately top 2% of hands hes 3 betting with

Also if i know he cold calls with 15% of hands from MP out of his 30% range he that means hes doing this with4.5% of hands? but is it at the bottom or top of his range

thats what im also confused on. How do i know when hes cold calling with the top or bototm of a range if another part of his range is what he pfr with? or 3 ebt with?

Same thing for the flop. If someone sees the flop with 10% of hands and they cbet 50% of the time as the pfr they are c betting with the top 5% of hands. Am i ont he right track?

Mike chops
03-19-2009, 05:57 PM
This has me confused a little too with how to read some stats. If the way Slowyaroll describes it is correct then that would me that I could not just put somes 3bet % into Pokerstove and get there 3bet range because I need to know what 3% of there vp$ip is to get the range. Not 3% of all hands correct? For example if someone has a Vp$ip of 30% fom the button and a 15% 3bet stat from the button I need to know what 15% of the 30% is to get there range from that position. I could not just out 15% into Poker stove and get the correct range?

No, the 3-bet % is the % of times he 3-bets when given the chance (somebody raises in front of him). You should just use the top 15% of hands...assuming he doesn't slowplay AA pre-flop.

Mike chops
03-19-2009, 06:03 PM
thanks mike chops. Yeah thats what i figured. That i would have to multiply each together to update the opponents new range. But sometimes its confusing because if he vpip 30%, pfr 50%, and 3bets 11%, that means he raises 15% of his hands form that position and 3bets around 2% of his hands. Am i correct? Because half of 30% is 15% and hes 3 betting 11% of that 15% pfr range which comes to approximately top 2% of hands hes 3 betting with

Also if i know he cold calls with 15% of hands from MP out of his 30% range he that means hes doing this with4.5% of hands? but is it at the bottom or top of his range

thats what im also confused on. How do i know when hes cold calling with the top or bototm of a range if another part of his range is what he pfr with? or 3 ebt with?

Same thing for the flop. If someone sees the flop with 10% of hands and they cbet 50% of the time as the pfr they are c betting with the top 5% of hands. Am i ont he right track?

No maybe I misread your first post. The 3-bet % is the % of times he 3-bets when given the chance. Similarly with cold-calling - that's the % of times he calls out of all the times he had a chance to, not the % of times he cold called out of just the hands he didn't fold. You don't need to multiply it by anything to get a range.

We have a 4-bet range stat which is the PFR * 4-bet%. We need this because someone who raises 40% of the time and 4-bets 50% has a much weaker range than someone who raises 2% and 4-bets 50%. That's about the only combo stat we have though.

Hunter
04-08-2009, 12:07 AM
of course these range %'s are only good if villain isn't polarizing, for example his 3bet range. And OP take a look a bayesian credible intervals if you really want to get into ranges.