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MH_Lee
05-19-2011, 11:31 PM
hi

i'm confused about F50 EV calculate

i play 10.48

when i preflop allin with AA in first hand

VS one player

i actual -10.48 but ev +14

my winning rate is 80%

how calculate about +14 ??


and other ex

when i preflop allin

AA<AK in 7player 2600 chip vs 2600chip

i actual -10.48 but ev +13

if i win i got 5200 chip it's worth $27.16 and i have 80% winning rate

why the ev so low?

Patvs
05-20-2011, 12:07 AM
Can you post the FULL handhistory of such a hand. (a hand from the original handhistory file we can import)
Where we can see the stacksizes of ALL players + the opponent holecards (of the hand you had AA), etc.

MH_Lee
05-20-2011, 01:51 AM
PokerStars Game #62285496212: Tournament #396037901, $10.00+$0.48 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (100/200) - 2011/05/19 14:29:55 CCT [2011/05/19 2:29:55 ET]
Table '396037901 1' 10-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: choys (1690 in chips)
Seat 2: MH_Lee (2690 in chips)
Seat 4: Plerion (990 in chips)
Seat 5: simba300 (2235 in chips)
Seat 6: Popeye LY (1205 in chips)
Seat 7: bactcs (4465 in chips)
Seat 8: Shortyx (1725 in chips)
choys: posts the ante 25
MH_Lee: posts the ante 25
Plerion: posts the ante 25
simba300: posts the ante 25
Popeye LY: posts the ante 25
bactcs: posts the ante 25
Shortyx: posts the ante 25
simba300: posts small blind 100
Popeye LY: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MH_Lee [Ah As]
bactcs: raises 200 to 400
Shortyx: folds
choys: folds
MH_Lee: raises 2265 to 2665 and is all-in
Plerion: folds
simba300: calls 2110 and is all-in
Popeye LY: folds
bactcs: folds
Uncalled bet (455) returned to MH_Lee
*** FLOP *** [7d 9d 2c]
*** TURN *** [7d 9d 2c] [Ad]
*** RIVER *** [7d 9d 2c Ad] [5d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
simba300: shows [Kd Ks] (a flush, Ace high)
MH_Lee: shows [Ah As] (three of a kind, Aces)
simba300 collected 5195 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 5195 | Rake 0
Board [7d 9d 2c Ad 5d]
Seat 1: choys folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: MH_Lee showed [Ah As] and lost with three of a kind, Aces
Seat 4: Plerion (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: simba300 (small blind) showed [Kd Ks] and won (5195) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 6: Popeye LY (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: bactcs folded before Flop
Seat 8: Shortyx folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Patvs
05-20-2011, 02:58 AM
Please update to the latest version - http://www.holdemmanager.com/Downloads/HmUpdate.exe

When I imported your hand it shows:
AA vs KK
You lost the hand. (while you had the best hand)
$EV Diff is $19.73.


So how is the $19.73 EV Diff is calculated?

This is how it should be calculated:
You have a 18% chance to loose the hand. If you loose, you'll have 455 chips left.
You have a 82% chance to win the hand. Had you won the hand you'd have 5650 chips with 6 players left. (top 5 in the money)


Had you won, your EV is: (56.50 * $0.33) = $18.645 (100 chips have a value of $0.33)
+ you win $10 for a TOTAL of $28.645

If you loose you'll have 455 chips left. Those 455 chips actually still have quite a lot of value. It's chip value (100 chips = $0.33) is really low: $1.5
But the fact you're still in the game with 7 players left has some value.
It will be around $3 (1500 chips = starting stack = represents a value of $10)


So your EV is: (82% * $28.645 = $23.49) + (18% * $4.5 = $0.81) = $24.30

You actually lose the hand. The $ EV Diff = $24.30 (=EV you were supposed to end up with) - $4.5 (=EV you ended up with) = $19.80* (= the $19.73 HoldemManager shows)


---

*Note the actual numbers are slightly different since I used 82% vs 18%... and HoldemManager uses 81.7147% vs 17.8226% (and also takes into account the 0.4627% chance of a splitpot)

But I was only $0.07 cents off.. so still pretty accurate :)


---


Edit: what can be confusing is this:
The Fifty50 consists of two parts.
Part 1: making the money (=you get $10)
Part 2: having lots of chips (you get $0.33 for every 100 chips)

Part 1:
If you have 455 chips left they represent a value of $3.
(1500 chips represent a value of $10)
But if you have 5650 chips. They also represent a value of $10.
The maximum value of your chips is $10.
Because that's all you can win in part 1 (similarly as in a Double or Nothing SNG, where you can't win more than 2x the buyin)