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View Full Version : Making sense of the beta tournament EV graph



AKQJ10
03-03-2009, 02:00 PM
I searched a bit and couldn't find anything clearly answering my question, so apologies if it's already been addressed.

I like the EV line that's been added to the tournament beta functionality, and I think I understand its limitations. This is just analyzing EV based on cards and in no way does it account for cooler situations, right? In other words, if I get all-in with KK on the button and big blind wakes up with AA, no calculation is made to say that I should have been ahead with KK vs. 2 random hands, right?

That may seem obvious in the cash game world but I ask because in general, people do use ICM calculators like SngWiz or EGT to do calculations against unknown hands. HM is now using ICM but only for known hands, is that right?

Now for a non-technical interpretation question...

I'm just starting out grinding sit-and-gos, and I recently plugged some leaks that had me shoving in -EV situations on the bubble. However, my red "luck adjusted" line is down about 25 buy-ins in 350 games since inception.

Obviously I know that S&Gs are high-variance, and that only part of that variance comes from suckouts and is mitigated in the EV line. Does anyone think I should be worried that I still seem to be getting chips in with the worst of it for 350 games?

If not, at what point should I use this data to conclude that there are undiscovered leaks?

morny
03-03-2009, 02:18 PM
Escalated to Mike, hell respond asap

AKQJ10
03-03-2009, 02:50 PM
Thanks, morny.

Of course I don't expect technical staff to have a definitive answer for the second half of my question, although y'all are certainly welcome to chime in. :) Mostly just hoping someone in the community has thought through this issue based on experience with S&Gs.