Should I expect to always run under allinEV?

[madskills]

I play mostly HU, and as a result, a large part of my play comes from random bums who buy in for a half stack. Example:

$100 stacks: I get allin pre with 50% equity and lose.

Profit: -$100
Equity: $50

Next hand, ($200 stacks) we get it allin pre again and again I have 50% equity. I win. He leaves.

Profit: $200
Equity: $100

Totals
Profit: $100
Equity: $150

I ran "normal" but my graph will show me running under expectation.
Am I missing something here?

[muzzard]

The times you go all in and get sucked out on will easily outweigh the times you go all in and suck out. This is because if you are any good, you will be getting it allin when you have the equity edge.

[madskills]

What?
I didn't get sucked out - I ran at expected EV.

Ok, maybe I'm interpreting the graph wrong.
I think most ppl assume that the AllinEV line is some sort of proxy for how much money you should have made if you ran normal in allin situations. But, wouldn't that only be the case if any money that you or your opponent won was immediately taken out of play? Seems to me that the fact that all "won money" stays in play will skew things.

I.E- guy buys in for $200 runs it up to 5k against me and I eventually stack him. I made $200. My allinEV line will be waaaay more than that regardless of how good or bad I ran.

[muzzard]

My bad

[muzzard]

I play mostly HU, and as a result, a large part of my play comes from random bums who buy in for a half stack. Example:

$100 stacks: I get allin pre with 50% equity and lose.

Profit: -$100
Equity: $50

Next hand, ($200 stacks) we get it allin pre again and again I have 50% equity. I win. He leaves.

Profit: $200
Equity: $100

Totals
Profit: $100
Equity: $150

I ran "normal" but my graph will show me running under expectation.
Am I missing something here?

You've done your example wrong anyway.

You dont have $50 equity, you have $100 equity. It's a coin flip, so it'd break even if you keep running teh same flip over and over. I.E. you don't win/lose any money. If you had $50 equity, that'd mean this play on average lost you $50. It's the pot total you want to be looking at.

$200, in the first expample of which you had $100 equity of. So you're -$100 in equity coz u lost

Second exapmle $200 in equity in the $400 pot, you win, so +$200 in equity.

+$100 in equity overall. So you are running over expectation. You're interpreting the graph wrong.

[benthj]

You should expect to run even over an infinite sample.

When you look at to coinflip for different amounts, you will run either good or bad. Winning one and losing the other doesnt change this, as HEM correctly takes into account the stacksizes.

To make it simple. You flip about a million and lose, and flip about 1 dollar and win. Yes, you are neutral EV, but allin USD wise as HEM measures, you are running terrible.

What Muzzard says is also incorrect. If you are a winning player, you are probably being sucked out more often that you suck out. But, that is because you dont come in bad as often as the players you are playing against. When your opponents come in with 10% or 33%, there are not gonna hit it more often than those 10% and 33%, so ofcourse they are not sucking more out allin equity wise, no matter how bad they come in, as you both get your share of what you should get in the long run.

[muzzard]

When your opponents come in with 10% or 33%, there are not gonna hit it more often than those 10% and 33%, so ofcourse they are not sucking more out allin equity wise, no matter how bad they come in, as you both get your share of what you should get in the long run.

True

[madskills]

Player sits against me with $200, runs it to $5k, and goes busto. My profit is $200. My AllinEV will always be $200.

True or false?
If false, then the two lines in the graph should not be expected to converge for a HU player.

Is any of that incorrect?

[muzzard]

Your allin EV will not be 200 as it would depend what equity you had when you went allin on each hand for him to get to 5k and to lose it all back.

Hypothetically lets say, you went allin PF on coinflips each time to make it EZ. At the point you bust him yes your +$200 in EV. I'm not 100% sure if it matters about the diff bet amounts, I mean he can only win $200 at a time building it up to 5k assuming he wins consecutive flips til 5k. You on the other hand will be winning 400, then 800, then 1.6k etc, until he's busto.

In another hypothesis, lets say you both got it in with coinflips and he ran it upto $5k. Then you sucked out on him repeatedly with 1% equity when the money went all in. You would be running over EV

[muzzard]

lolmspaint

two examples here first is the flips, second is the one where he flips his way to 5k, then u epic suckout him busto.

http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/9520/flips1.png

http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/9240/suckout.png

[madskills]

Ok: True or False

The allin EV line can be used as an approximation of how much money I would have made had I ran normal in Allin situation.

I guess I have trouble rationalizing this in my head when a shortstacker is never going to rebuy and I am. If you can consider that issue and till say there statement is true then ima forget about it :)

[muzzard]

Yes, it can.

Players rarely get their money in drawing dead. But imagine some guy did lots vs you. HU you won 2million off him and everytime he got the money in he was stone cold dead 0% equity. Then your EV line woudl match winnings line.