LanceFire
02-02-2009, 10:39 AM
I see that I can get my standard deviation BB for a certain sample size, which relates to my BB/100. My question is how can I use EV BB/100 to better approximate an expected winrate long term. It doesn't seem possible that EV BB/100 would have the same standard deviation as BB/100 since it removes all-in luck from the variance equation. I'm no math whiz, but my guess is that if a player was a winrate that is +/- 1BB/100, then if you used his EV winrate it might be say +/- 0.5BB/100.
The only other part of the variance equation would be related to what you flopped/turned/river BEFORE getting all in. A good example happened to me last night where a player slow rolled me with AA and not much money was on by the turn when my KK became KKK and we got all in. Also a factor would be how many times did a person get a very lucky outflop, ie set over set or AT hits trip tens when you have AA.
The only other part of the variance equation would be related to what you flopped/turned/river BEFORE getting all in. A good example happened to me last night where a player slow rolled me with AA and not much money was on by the turn when my KK became KKK and we got all in. Also a factor would be how many times did a person get a very lucky outflop, ie set over set or AT hits trip tens when you have AA.