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hmf_1
12-03-2008, 03:25 AM
Hi.

I've just read the articel "Dealing with a preflop Three Bet" in HM.

After that I tried to figure out what you mean with "Somewhat Profitable" (orange holecards). So I calculated an example on http://www.rvgsoftware.com. The result was -$34.77 what isn't definitely not "Somewhat Profitable" ;)

Where is my mistake???


Your hand: AJs
Initial Stack Size: 2000
Already Put In: 70

Dead Money: 30

Villains Initial Range: 44+,ATs+,KQs,98s,87s,76s,AJo+,KQo,T9o
Villains All-In Range: TT+,AJs+,AQo+
Initial Stack Size: 2000
Already Put In: 210

jayceekay
12-03-2008, 12:54 PM
i've never looked at this specific example or read the article, but it's pretty obvious why it's not a profitable move there. you're risking 1930 to win 310 and if you look at the calling range you gave us TT+,AJs+,AQo+, we're flipping with tens, dominated by jj-kk, crushed by aa, even with ajs, and dominated by everything else. you can probably do a couple of things to make it +ev, like widen his opening range, tighten up his calling range, give yourself a better pushing hand, inflate the pot size (either by dead money or by the size of his raise). for this specific hand with these ranges there should be more money in the pot to make up for how badly our ev is vs. his calling range.

i toyed with the numbers and got this:


Initial Stack Size 2000
Already Put In 90

Dead Money 50
Initial Stack Size 2000
Already Put In 290

which isn't too unrealistic, basically at some 10/20 game there are the blinds and one limper, you isolate to 90, he 3bets to 290 and then you have a slightly better than breakeven (+$50.18) equity of pushing.