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piv
02-21-2011, 10:36 PM
Hey guys,

Got AA in vs A9o today, pokerstove shows

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 94.081% 93.37% 00.71% 1598785 12160.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 05.919% 05.21% 00.71% 89199 12160.00 { Ad9h }


Hand replayer shows 72% vs 28%

I can email/PM the hand history, don't want to post screenname.

netsrak
02-22-2011, 06:30 AM
We hand an EV bug in earlier 1.11.05x releases.

Please upgrade to 1.11.06a http://www.holdemmanager.com/Downloads/HmUpdate.exe

To fix the hand you need to delete it via right mouse-key and reimport the hands.

alllala
02-22-2011, 03:11 PM
I found even with .06a the EV Bug.

Tourney PRE-AI
me 99
vs AQ
and AK

For this Hand HM shows me my EV from the Flop instead of PRE

Patvs
02-22-2011, 04:43 PM
I'm guessing the 99 was a shortstack who moved preflop allin, and the other two bigstacks with AQ and AK saw a flop before they committed?

The EV "problem":
A: If a player has 0 outs, or
B: the allin situation takes place on the river there is NO EV DIFFERENCE.
C: If a shortstack goes allin preflop, and is called by two bigstacks. And the two bigstacks continue to bet on the flop, turn or river, this situation is treated as situation B. (EV = 0)
Fozzy: "You can't calculate all-in equity if you don't know the hands you are up against."
D: If you commit 99% of your stack with the best hand, but your last 1% goes allin with the worst hand, the $EV Difference will be calculated by your entire stack.

Why "EV by street" (which people who often see situation D want) is a bad thing:

Example:
- you have AA, you raise to 80% of your stack, donkey calls, flop comes K83 rainbow.
- you then go all-in, no matter the flop, because you're committed.
- out of 100 times, 88 times donkey folds.
- 12 times donkeys calls with a set (33/88/KK).
What shall EV by street wrongly do? It shall do no computations for the 88 times where donkey folded--> "no more calculation".
What shall EV by street do the 12 times where donkey calls with a set? "Show that donkey sucked out and that you got unlucky".

So although you ran obviously really good by having donkey folding 88 times out of 100. EV by street focuses on the 12 times where donkey hit his set and tells that you're running below EV.
This is a well-known gambler fallacy. And this is why "EV by street" is biased.

Note: Tristanblue writes "it's precisely because EV by street does nothing to your adjusted-graph on these cases where the opponent folded that it is wrong".

But what if your opponent never folds? Suppose there are two players A and B.
Player A has AA, B has KK. (both have $100 stacks). They commit half their stack preflop and the flop comes AK6. Player B (KK has 1 "out") to win the hand.
If I would play this hand I would always make sure I'm allin on the turn.
However Player X always commits the rest of his stack on the flop and turn *except for one dollar*. And he commits on the river.
Of course, 4% of the time, the rivercard is the case King. Player X's EV Diff is always 0. (because he goes allin on the river)
My EV Diff (I go allin on the turn) is -$4 (96 out of 100 times) and +$96 (4 out of 100 times)
So our EV graph actually looks exactly the same after 100 of these hands.
(-4 * 96 + 96 * 4 = also equals 0!) So the EV outcome (in the long-term) is the same no matter how you play the hand. And no matter which type of EV calculation you use.

alllala
02-23-2011, 04:22 PM
Seriously. That is your answer to my complain.

You just copy&paste it from another Thread, although itīs has almost nothing to do with my problem?

Yeah your right, that my PRE-AI Push with 99 was called by AK and AQ, which both went AI on the Flop. But what does your pasted message have to do with my case?

I was AI Preflop with an Equity of about 40%, but instead of the real thing HM shows me my Equity on the Flop (7%) although i was AI with 40%. This is total crap and you guys are just too lazy to correct that issue.

Patvs
02-23-2011, 08:39 PM
It's irrelevant you went allin preflop with 40% equity.



Your hand is a unique situation, since you were allin preflop, but the betting between two opponents continued on a later street.

For this reason, HoldemManager calculates you as being allin on the flop.
That may sound illogical. But the reason is, often one opponent makes the other opponent to fold. When that happens, no one actually knows what the holecards are of that opponent. (he may have had the best hand preflop!)

Classic example:
Shortstack goes allin preflop with a 22. JJ calls. ATs calls.
Flop comes AK2. ATs bets. JJ folds.
22 wins the hand.


So HoldemManager ignores the preflop allin in any such situation. Otherwise it would lead to biased results if it would only calculate preflop EV when all the holecards are known, but would ignore it when one of the opponents folds.