horizonx
02-20-2011, 06:20 AM
I am running a positive EV $ Diff on PokerStars. How much is due on an HM overstatement in multi pots ?
This is hugely important as positive EV $ Diff could fuel the idea that card deals are skewed.
HM seems to bump up the number by over $1.00 on a single hand.
Please go over the following calculation :
PStars thinks as follows :
Player5 wins $3.55 outright for getting player4 to fold (-7% rake = $3.25)
In the Pot :
$0.75 from player4 get into the pot due to hero's initial raise
$2.56 Hero
$2.56 Player5 matching amount
Total Pot = 5.87 (according to me)
5.87 *0.07 (rake) = 0.41
Hero is competing for a pot of 5.46
On the QJo 88 lay up (47% - 53% according to HM replayer )
$ EV difference = 5.46 * 0.53 = $2.89 (my result) vs $3.71 (HM)
Please could you thoroughly double check multipot EV $ Diff as I am running a 6% to 16% positive figure vs total amount invested depending on filter used.
That's huge ! If that much a tally difference was found flipping a coin over several hundred tries, I would rightly suspect the coin to be unevenly balanced.
Thank you very much.
***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (Poker Stars)
$25.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, January 25, 03:11:51 ET 2011
Table Marina IV (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( $31.90 USD ) - VPIP: 14, PFR: 12, 3B: 7, AF: 3.5, Hands: 156
Seat 3: Hero ( $2.56 USD ) - VPIP: 45, PFR: 40, 3B: 7, AF: 4.1, Hands: 14820
Seat 4: Player4 ( $28.09 USD ) - VPIP: 22, PFR: 17, 3B: 13, AF: 1.3, Hands: 41
Seat 5: Player5 ( $17.25 USD ) - VPIP: 67, PFR: 11, 3B: 0, AF: 1.7, Hands: 9
Player4 posts small blind [$0.10 USD].
Player5 posts big blind [$0.25 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 8h 8s ]
Player1 folds
Hero raises [$0.75 USD]
Player4 raises [$4.20 USD]
Player5 raises [$7.60 USD]
Hero calls [$1.81 USD]
Player4 folds
Player5 wins $3.55 USD
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3s, Js, 2c ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Jc ]
** Dealing River ** [ Ac ]
Player5 shows [Qh, Jd ]
Player5 wins $3.25 USD from main pot
Hero shows [8h, 8s ]
Player5 wins $7.17 USD from main pot
This is hugely important as positive EV $ Diff could fuel the idea that card deals are skewed.
HM seems to bump up the number by over $1.00 on a single hand.
Please go over the following calculation :
PStars thinks as follows :
Player5 wins $3.55 outright for getting player4 to fold (-7% rake = $3.25)
In the Pot :
$0.75 from player4 get into the pot due to hero's initial raise
$2.56 Hero
$2.56 Player5 matching amount
Total Pot = 5.87 (according to me)
5.87 *0.07 (rake) = 0.41
Hero is competing for a pot of 5.46
On the QJo 88 lay up (47% - 53% according to HM replayer )
$ EV difference = 5.46 * 0.53 = $2.89 (my result) vs $3.71 (HM)
Please could you thoroughly double check multipot EV $ Diff as I am running a 6% to 16% positive figure vs total amount invested depending on filter used.
That's huge ! If that much a tally difference was found flipping a coin over several hundred tries, I would rightly suspect the coin to be unevenly balanced.
Thank you very much.
***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (Poker Stars)
$25.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, January 25, 03:11:51 ET 2011
Table Marina IV (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( $31.90 USD ) - VPIP: 14, PFR: 12, 3B: 7, AF: 3.5, Hands: 156
Seat 3: Hero ( $2.56 USD ) - VPIP: 45, PFR: 40, 3B: 7, AF: 4.1, Hands: 14820
Seat 4: Player4 ( $28.09 USD ) - VPIP: 22, PFR: 17, 3B: 13, AF: 1.3, Hands: 41
Seat 5: Player5 ( $17.25 USD ) - VPIP: 67, PFR: 11, 3B: 0, AF: 1.7, Hands: 9
Player4 posts small blind [$0.10 USD].
Player5 posts big blind [$0.25 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 8h 8s ]
Player1 folds
Hero raises [$0.75 USD]
Player4 raises [$4.20 USD]
Player5 raises [$7.60 USD]
Hero calls [$1.81 USD]
Player4 folds
Player5 wins $3.55 USD
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3s, Js, 2c ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Jc ]
** Dealing River ** [ Ac ]
Player5 shows [Qh, Jd ]
Player5 wins $3.25 USD from main pot
Hero shows [8h, 8s ]
Player5 wins $7.17 USD from main pot