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View Full Version : Hyper turbos increased ev bb/100 makes lower profit on luck adjusted EV graph?



wickedsouls
08-02-2013, 05:56 PM
Hello, i have been playing Hyper for kina long time and messing a lot with HEM stats. After playing 6k+ games of full ring hypers i pulled out population tendencies of calling ranges and added those in ICMIZER so i noticed i can push even wider to increase my profit. And i started. Before i was doing 4.31 EV bb/100 and my ROI on Luck adjusted graph was 10%, when i widened my ranges i went to 4.91 EV bb/100 but my luck adjusted winnings went down to 8%. How can that happen? I did analyzis on number of player reports, and all numbers for ev bb/100 are same or higher now, but i am winning less, how can that happen? any ideas?

Patvs
08-02-2013, 06:52 PM
EV bb/100 (and cEV) have no direct relation with your actual winnings (and ROI) in a STT.


Example:
You can play better poker, by improving your EV bb/100.
You push wider--> either results in---> your opponent folds... or they call--> you win or lose the hand.

When your opponent folds, or they call and you win the hand---> you're not guaranteed to now magically finish in 1th place in all those games. Your ROI will only go up a little bit.

When they call, and you lose the hand---> this can have a dramatic effect where in those games you now suddenly finish out of the money... (or your ROI goes down a lot).

wickedsouls
08-03-2013, 01:42 AM
Thank you for reply :) still trying to figure out what makes EV lucj adjusted winning grapth to go up for many games and then to go on breakeven even if you keep playing the same, o_O

udbrky
08-03-2013, 04:05 AM
If you win more chips than you should, your EV adjusted will be positive and if you lose more than you should, it will be negative.

Expected profit - actual profit = Adjusted luck.

wickedsouls
08-04-2013, 03:09 PM
But in my database i see that i increased chips gained per 100 hands, but started doing less profit.This looked a bit strange. I still think that bb/100 hands makes influence on your winning graph, becouse i doubt that you can play profitably with negative bb/100 in log run. I also talked with some other persons who sayed that before first blind levels i used play above ev and not i play below, so it can make different results on games in later stages

udbrky
08-04-2013, 06:43 PM
A lot of times in tournaments, you're winning more bb in the beginning, but unless you win every tournament, you lose a large chunk of chips when knocked out. This is usually at a larger blind level.

Think of it like this.

At 15-30, you win 6000 chips in 50 hands. This is 200bb, and 400bb/100.

Then, at the 50-100 level, you lost 6000 chips in 50 hands. This is -60bb, for -120bb/100.

So in these 100 hands, you have broke even on chips, and your bb won is 140bb, in 100 hands, so you have won 140bb/100 hands.

However, you bust out of the tournament, and do not win any money, but you still have a + bb/100 winrate.

wickedsouls
08-05-2013, 01:59 AM
Yes,this makes sence :) Can you run analyzis on HEM2 with different blind levels? Well that would be cool :)

Patvs
08-05-2013, 12:50 PM
Run two reports:
-1 Tournament--> More Reports--> Winnings Summary (for the blind levels) and
-2 Tournament--> More Reports--> Stack Size

wickedsouls
08-06-2013, 08:18 AM
-1 Tournament--> More Reports--> Winnings Summary (for the blind levels)
Was looking this one for ages!!! Thank you very much! (bow)

udbrky
08-06-2013, 12:42 PM
Thank you for letting us know this is resolved.

Good luck at the tables,

Please let us know if we can help with anything else.