NZfisherman
02-08-2011, 01:24 AM
I am a cash game player on pokerstars. After starting out with some success working out the kinks in my game, I beleive I have an edge and when things seem to run average I was winning ( especially with optimal table selection ) However my last 100k hands I have come to expect to win maybe 40% flips , get outdrawn far more often than I should in all types of betting situations, not just when all in at any stage pre river, and also have more cooler hands against me than for ( eg, nut flush vs 2nd nut flush, or AA vs KK all in pre ) Now im not a deluded fish but after feeling like I have been generally been running so terrible for such a large stretch of hands and a now downward trending graph has left me wondering can I actually beat the game ( once this extreme variance resolves or reduces ) . Or do I really not have the edge I think I have
My question is . How accurate is all in EV adjusted winnings in calculating whether I should be winning or not . In the last 100k hands im losing about 30k which at the stakes I have been mostly playing ( 2/4 .... 3/6 ... 5/10 ) would be about 100 buyins at mostly 50bb max 6 player tables . So ruffly one buy in per thousand hands.
My all in EV adjusted gap has been growing wider and wider as the hands progressed and according to it I should only be losing 20k instead of 30k (60-70 buy ins). Although this is a massive amount of difference and obviously shows ive run terrible I dont beleive it accounts for every instance of running bad you can have in a cash game, I beleive ive been kicked in the teeth over this large stretch of hands and should atleast be making a small profit, Instead im down 30k and all in EV adjusted says I should be down 20k . Is it possible that if I had totally average variance across all types of hand situations that I should actually be winning ??? Or is it true that I really should be down 20k . In which case I need to drastically alter my game or just give up . Although I dont beleive I am a losing player my recent results have created a large element of doubt.
Any feedback is welcome and appreciated
My question is . How accurate is all in EV adjusted winnings in calculating whether I should be winning or not . In the last 100k hands im losing about 30k which at the stakes I have been mostly playing ( 2/4 .... 3/6 ... 5/10 ) would be about 100 buyins at mostly 50bb max 6 player tables . So ruffly one buy in per thousand hands.
My all in EV adjusted gap has been growing wider and wider as the hands progressed and according to it I should only be losing 20k instead of 30k (60-70 buy ins). Although this is a massive amount of difference and obviously shows ive run terrible I dont beleive it accounts for every instance of running bad you can have in a cash game, I beleive ive been kicked in the teeth over this large stretch of hands and should atleast be making a small profit, Instead im down 30k and all in EV adjusted says I should be down 20k . Is it possible that if I had totally average variance across all types of hand situations that I should actually be winning ??? Or is it true that I really should be down 20k . In which case I need to drastically alter my game or just give up . Although I dont beleive I am a losing player my recent results have created a large element of doubt.
Any feedback is welcome and appreciated