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View Full Version : Running above Allin ev ?



fish2pute
01-16-2011, 08:10 PM
Hi,

I have a simple question but I'm not sure I'll be able to explain it cleary since english isn't my native langage... Anyway here's my try :
Are the odds of running below ev the same as the odds of running above ev ?
In poker forums there are a ton of players posting to complain about running below ev. Usually those graph are in the range of 30 to 60 buyins below ev (I don't spend my life searching for those graph so not really sure about those numbers). So if my question wasn't clear here is the second try : is it possible to run 30 to 60 buyins above ev ?
It is easily understandable that nobody wants to show such a graph because of ego. It would be like saying : "hey guys look at me I suck at poker but still make money because of my luck". But does those graph exist ? I mean do they exist in the same proportion as graph below ev ?

psyrgoh
01-16-2011, 09:01 PM
Hi,

I have a simple question but I'm not sure I'll be able to explain it cleary since english isn't my native langage... Anyway here's my try :
Are the odds of running below ev the same as the odds of running above ev ?
In poker forums there are a ton of players posting to complain about running below ev. Usually those graph are in the range of 30 to 60 buyins below ev (I don't spend my life searching for those graph so not really sure about those numbers). So if my question wasn't clear here is the second try : is it possible to run 30 to 60 buyins above ev ?
It is easily understandable that nobody wants to show such a graph because of ego. It would be like saying : "hey guys look at me I suck at poker but still make money because of my luck". But does those graph exist ? I mean do they exist in the same proportion as graph below ev ?

Yes they do. The Human mind is the problem of all those negative graphs.
Your brain is a strange device, when you suck out, the suck out must be 3 times as unlikely to occure for it to be equal with a bad beat.

So in simple words:

You have a coinflip 4 times in a row.
When you lose a coinflip and win the next 3 you are responding normall to it.
When you lose 2 coinflips the other 2 that you will win will feel not so good.
etc.

In SNG's swings of up to 100 buyin's -EV is just as commun as swings of 100 buyin's +EV

Hope that explains it a bit.

Patvs
01-16-2011, 11:32 PM
Running 60 BI above EV... is just as normal as 60 BI below.

But the whiners of "OMG I run soooo bad" that post their graphs just outnumber the players that do not brag about running above EV.