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Kontra
01-13-2011, 05:01 AM
Good morning,

I have deeply analysed data from a friend who asked me to, and i came to the conclusion that something is very wrong in the site he is playing, and i would like a professional opinion from HM for statistical data that i think is impossible to occur in such a large sample with several comparison samples.

This player has been playing for about 6 months on a heavy base, meaning a total of around 700.000 hands from August 2010 to December 2010. He is the TAG type of player with descending non showdown winnings, and ascending showdown winnings, which every month seem to balance each other breaking even but generating a lot of rake.
In the atachments, it is possible to see these curves for august (166k hands), september (250k hands), october (185k hands). I also have the data for november (75k hands), and the graph is identical. So the total is 686K hands and total winnings of -1264 hands.

This month of January, something very weird happened. This player sudenly started losing almost every single hand, and has NEGATIVE showdown winnings, something that is unthinkable for a reg that is playing exactly with the same style as with the previous 686k hands. I attached the graph of this month january, so far with 160k hands, and 9370 bb down. Please check this out and coment.

Thank you in advance

Sarek
01-13-2011, 05:32 AM
which HM version used ?

Kontra
01-13-2011, 05:44 AM
The latest, 1.11.05e

Patvs
01-13-2011, 05:59 AM
Is there a big difference in his EV Winnings line (compared to his $Won line) for january?


Does he happen to play on FullTilt?

Kontra
01-13-2011, 09:33 AM
The network is Entraction. Here follows the statistics of January.

Also, to show that the playing style is exactly the same (VPIP, PFR, 3bet, 4bet range, flop cbet, etc), here goes the same stats for the past months of 2010.

Patvs
01-13-2011, 08:30 PM
Five possible reasons for any such scenario:
(you already eliminated #1 with your last post)

#1: Running bad (below EV) leads to playing differently. Your PFR dropping 2 points, AGG dropping 0.3 points, tiny changes in your game playing less aggressive than optimal, suddenly make you a losing player.

#2: Variance kicks in. 160K hands (january) may seem a large enough sample size, but I'm not convinced about that... yet. Theoretically this "downswing" is more than possible.
When playing in january: did you friend experience a lot of coolers? (mostly coolers, where the money went in bad, but he could never have played the hand differently: i.e. set vs set, KK vs AA)

#3a: The player pool of opponents has significantly changed. And these opponents (especially the non-regulars/FISH) play a different style. Therefore your "old TAG style" is no longer effective.

#3b: Similar to #3a, these new opponents no longer pay you off when they have top pair and you have a set. And you run into idiots a lot more often who chase their middle-pair hand and improve to two-pair on the turn/river.
The result is your stats stay the same, but you're suddenly only winnings smaller pots, and losing bigger pots than before. (note: your old style at best had break-even results of 0BB/100, so if #3a/#3b occur this recent -5BB/100 seems completely normal)

#4: The new regulars / and the old familiar regulars completely outplay you.
Since they managed to find a leak in your game. Or similarly to #3b, they play their hands differently against you (pot controlling) making it more difficult to get value out of your strong hands.

#5: There is a super account user that can see your friend's holecards (unlikely)

(#6): HoldemManager has a bug and imports the hands incorrectly, so hands you won, actually show up as losses in the graph or All-in hands show the wrong EV<--- this actually recently happened so always make sure you're using the latest version.


Combination of #2, #3 and #4 seems the most likely cause.

Kontra
01-13-2011, 10:21 PM
I am also a regular at entraction, and have experienced severall downswings. EV swings, having -2k EV on some days, +2k on others, and sometimes 5k EV diference in a month with a big sample. Also may sessions, being coolered with AK vs AA and KK and QQ vs KK and KK vs AA, the same happens some sessions in the oposite way.
So point #2 happens, but almost balances perfecly in a long sample.
Also, point #1 is not true because losses = ev losses, and the stats remain exacly the same, showing the player is playing exactly the same style either in winning sessions, either in losing sessions.

But never ever i have seen negative showdown winnings when a player's range for going all in pre flop is AK and QQ+, for getting it in on flops is always 2pair+, sets, flushes, combo draws and overpairs in drawy boards.

About point #3 and #4, If the oponents would be adapting, in order for them to always having the best hand vs a range pre flop of QQ+ and AK, they would have to be always folding AK AQ TT and JJ, and in that way, folding 3 to 3.5% of the top 5% range, therefore, making the TAG i mentioned red line going up because of oponents 3beting these type of hands but not playing for stacks pre flop. The same playing flops, having to fold AQ and AJ type of hands in Q and J high boards and stuff like that. Know what i mean?

About point #6, the losses are correct, it is not a HM bug.


It completly apears to be rigged. But since you guys surelly have huge databases, i wonder if you have ever seen a player with this profile (triangle up showdown winnings, triangle down non showdown winnings) ever experience a period over 100k hands where he has negative showdown winnings.

Patvs
01-13-2011, 11:58 PM
i wonder if you have ever seen a player with this profile (triangle up showdown winnings, triangle down non showdown winnings) ever experience a period over 100k hands where he has negative showdown winnings.


I'm such a player myself. :-)
16-tabling NL100 for 800.000 hands (3BB/100 + generating plenty of bonus/rakeback, where a losing day/week is extremely rare)

Last 200.000 hands. Winrate of -3. So for me personally, #1, #2, #3, #4 all apply. (my TAG robotic playing style has not progressed my game, and I seriously believe my less tight opponents have gotten better)


If your friend: "only plays pre flop is AK and QQ+, for getting it in on flops is always 2pair+, sets, flushes, combo draws and overpairs in drawy boards" always enabling him this perfect break-even grind-mode just analyze his hands.... and not his stats.

How is he losing exactly? What specific hands (or type of hands)? How many BB is he winning/losing with these hands compared to 2010.



Edit: I should add that my showdown vs non-showdown lines haven't changed in the last 200.000 hands. So I'm quite intrigued by your negative showdown winnings.
Turn on a HoldemManager filter: SHOWDOWN = TRUE
And go over the hands that caused the biggest wins/losses.