Wrong $Ev on stars's sitngo

[Caravaggio_87]

Hello guys, I have a problem with the calculation of the $ev on Pokerstars.it

My hem's version is 1.11.05b..

An example is on this hand:

PokerStars Game #53168377213: Tournament #334635597, €17.84+€2.16 EUR Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) [AAMS ID: L2857006F61E7BMC] - 2010/11/23 23:23:57 CET [2010/11/23 17:23:57 ET]
Table '334635597 1' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Dustybastard (90 in chips)
Seat 2: andrea202 (2890 in chips)
Seat 4: mavobar74 (3230 in chips)
Seat 5: boshGT (1570 in chips)
Seat 6: starknight13 (1375 in chips)
Seat 7: miglio76 (1365 in chips)
Seat 8: superspyno (1455 in chips)
Seat 9: camillona (1525 in chips)
andrea202: posts small blind 25
mavobar74: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to miglio76 [Kd Ks]
boshGT: folds
starknight13: folds
miglio76: raises 75 to 125
superspyno: folds
camillona: folds
Dustybastard: folds
andrea202: calls 100
mavobar74: calls 75
*** FLOP *** [2c 5h Th]
andrea202: checks
mavobar74: checks
miglio76: bets 300
andrea202: folds
mavobar74: calls 300
*** TURN *** [2c 5h Th] [Jd]
mavobar74: checks
miglio76: bets 675
mavobar74: calls 675
*** RIVER *** [2c 5h Th Jd] [2h]
mavobar74: bets 300
miglio76: calls 265 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (35) returned to mavobar74
*** SHOW DOWN ***
mavobar74: shows [8h 9h] (a flush, Ten high)
miglio76: shows [Kd Ks] (two pair, Kings and Deuces)
mavobar74 collected 2855 from pot
miglio76 finished the tournament in 8th place
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2855 | Rake 0
Board [2c 5h Th Jd 2h]
Seat 1: Dustybastard (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: andrea202 (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: mavobar74 (big blind) showed [8h 9h] and won (2855) with a flush, Ten high
Seat 5: boshGT folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: starknight13 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: miglio76 showed [Kd Ks] and lost with two pair, Kings and Deuces
Seat 8: superspyno folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: camillona folded before Flop (didn't bet)


Why the $Ev is 0?

To ease the problem for you, I am attaching the screen of Data View:

http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/6128/sballato.jpg

[Patvs]

There is a recent allin-ev bug which started in 1.11.05.
We're trying to fix this as soon as possible.

HOWEVER... this bug does not affect the hand you posted.
In your hand, you go allin on the RIVER.
So either you have the best hand, or you don't. (that's completely different as when going allin preflop, on the flop or turn)

Therefore the EV is ALWAYS 0 if you go allin on the river. Since no "card-to-come" can affect the outcome of the hand.

[Caravaggio_87]

Another one!

I think that all sd can not be to 0 $Ev
Correct me if I'm wrong ..


The hh is selected..

http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/579/sballato2.jpg

[Patvs]

Also in this hand you bet on the RIVER and are called.
So either you have the best hand, or you don't.

Therefore the EV is ALWAYS 0 if you go allin on the river. Since no "card-to-come" can affect the outcome of the hand.



AllinEV (AIEV) can only be calculated if there are more cards to come.

Watch video at: FAQ - Hold'em Manager Poker Tracking Software :: EV Explained (http://faq.holdemmanager.com/questions/120/EV+Explained)



What you're thinking of is "EV by street". You want some EV compensation for losing the AA vs A3 hand because you had THE BEST hand preflop?
But giving you EV for having the best hand preflop.... and NOT adjusting EV for the many times your opponents FOLDS and you never get to see his wholecards is a biased (and unfair) method or calculating EV.

[Caravaggio_87]

Thanks you very much Pats!!

[Flash-xD]

The image speaks for itself

http://img444.imageshack.us/img444/8498/31735087.jpg

[8gamer]

Also in this hand you bet on the RIVER and are called.
So either you have the best hand, or you don't.

Therefore the EV is ALWAYS 0 if you go allin on the river. Since no "card-to-come" can affect the outcome of the hand.



AllinEV (AIEV) can only be calculated if there are more cards to come.

Watch video at: FAQ - Hold'em Manager Poker Tracking Software :: EV Explained (http://faq.holdemmanager.com/questions/120/EV+Explained)



What you're thinking of is "EV by street". You want some EV compensation for losing the AA vs A3 hand because you had THE BEST hand preflop?
But giving you EV for having the best hand preflop.... and NOT adjusting EV for the many times your opponents FOLDS and you never get to see his wholecards is a biased (and unfair) method or calculating EV.

Do you realize how flawed this is? If you want to display the true EV, then it must be calculated for the pot on EACH street.

If I put in $999,999 in the pot with the best hand and put $1 in on the river after I get sucked out on, you're telling me my EV should be 0? I can't even begin to explain how illogical that is.

And it wouldn't matter the times my opponent FOLDS, because the EV is only calculated when there is a SHOWDOWN. If I'm in a pot pre-flop when I was a 70% favorite, then the EV should be 70% of the current pot. Let's say it's $200, then my EV is $140.

If I am an 80% favorite after the flop, then you add the EVs together:

Flop EV = ((Flop Pot minus Pre-flop Pot) x 80%) + Pre-flop EV.

90% favorite on the Turn:

Turn EV = ((Turn Pot minus Flop Pot) x 90%) + Flop EV + Pre-flop EV.

Is it too hard to program this?

[Patvs]

@flash-xd hand #1 you're allin with AA on the flop
hand #2 you're allin with AA on the turn. So both hand will result in a EV Diff.
Having said that... we currently have a Allin-EV bug, so I'm not sure if the actual amounts of the EV Diff are correct. You'll have to post (or email) us the FULL handhistory.


@8gamer:

You're correct "True EV" is calculated for the pot on each street.
But you need to know your opponents hole-cards to do so.
If we adjust EV when we DO. But we don't when the opponents wholecards are unknown---> the longterm result will be incorrect.
In additional, often the opponents hole-cards ARE known in a showdown, but we STILL can't calculate "True EV" because a SECOND opponent involved in the hand folded on a earlier street.

So HoldemManager has two choices:
-1 Show True EV when it can (correct) + don't calculate anything when it can't (EV = 0)---> where the longterm END result will be inaccurate (incorrect)
-2 Only calculate Allin-EV when the hole-cards are known.

#2 actually has SIMILAR flaws as #1. (explained below) BUT those flaws (for NOT calculating EV by showing EV = 0 in some rare ALLIN situations ("put in $999,999 in the pot with the best hand and put $1 in on the river after you get sucked out on")--> will still result in a accurate END result, which is why HoldemManager chooses to use #2.


----

Full explanation:

For a long time I thought HoldemManager's Allin-EV was unfair (and I wanted a "EV per street" calculation myself) until I read: http://forums.holdemmanager.com/3rd-party-programs-compatible-holdem-manager/16665-enter-sect-7.html



The EV "problem" what some people don't understand:
A: If a player has 0 outs, or
B: the allin situation takes place on the river there is NO EV DIFFERENCE.
C: If a shortstack goes allin preflop, and is called by two bigstacks. And the two bigstacks continue to bet on the flop, turn or river, this situation is treated as situation B. (EV = 0)
Fozzy: "You can't calculate all-in equity if you don't know the hands you are up against."
D: So if you commit 99% of your stack with the best hand, but your last 1% goes allin with the worst hand, the $EV Difference will be calculated by your entire stack.

Why "EV by street" (which people who often see situation D want) is a bad thing:

Example:
- you have AA, you raise to 80% of your stack, donkey calls, flop comes K83 rainbow.
- you then go all-in, no matter the flop, because you're committed.
- out of 100 times, 88 times donkey folds.
- 12 times donkeys calls with a set (33/88/KK).
What shall EV by street do? It shall do no computations for the 88 times where donkey folded--> "no more calculation". (EV = 0)
What shall EV by street do the 12 times where donkey calls with a set? "Show that donkey sucked out and that you got unlucky". (give you EV)

So although you ran obviously really good by having donkey folding 88 times out of 100. EV by street focuses on the 12 times where donkey hit his set and tells that you're running below EV.
This is a well-known gambler fallacy. And this is why "EV by street" is biased.

Note: Tristanblue writes "it's precisely because EV by street does nothing to your adjusted-graph on these cases where the opponent folded that it is wrong".

But what if your opponent never folds? Suppose there are two players A and B.
Player A has AA, B has KK. (both have $100 stacks). They commit half their stack preflop and the flop comes AK6. Player B (KK has 1 "out") to win the hand.
If I would play this hand I would always make sure I'm allin on the turn.
However Player X always commits the rest of his stack on the flop and turn *except for one dollar*. And he commits on the river.
Of course, 4% of the time, the rivercard is the case King. Player X's EV Diff is always 0. (because he goes allin on the river)
My EV Diff (I go allin on the turn) is -$4 (96 out of 100 times) and +$96 (4 out of 100 times)
So our EV graph actually looks exactly the same after 100 of these hands.
(-4 * 96 + 96 * 4 = also equals 0) So the EV outcome (in the long-term) is the same no matter how you play the hand.


---

Conclusion:

So you're right Allin-EV can be illogical. But the long-term result is fair.
The EV by street / True-EV is MORE fair, but only if you ALWAYS know all the hole-cards. It's unfair if you ONLY calculate it when you can.

[Flash-xD]

@flash-xd hand #1 you're allin with AA on the flop
hand #2 you're allin with AA on the turn. So both hand will result in a EV Diff.
Having said that... we currently have a Allin-EV bug, so I'm not sure if the actual amounts of the EV Diff are correct. You'll have to post (or email) us the FULL handhistory.


***** History for hand R5-101736032-754 *****
Start hand: Thu Dec 2 22:58:25 GMT-0200 2010
Table: Eerdenet [101736032] (NO_LIMIT TEXAS_HOLDEM $0.05/$0.10, Real money)
User: tonystarkpkr
Button: seat 4
Players in round: 8
Seat 5: Cashman0023 ($3.84)
Seat 6: monoPokerGr ($11.42)
Seat 7: pokeralhe ($15.29)
Seat 10: -E-Z- ($11.21)
Seat 1: tonystarkpkr ($11.21)
Seat 2: supersys003 ($11.80)
Seat 3: Secccco ($4.68)
Seat 4: kluivert25 ($9.60)
Cashman0023 posts small blind ($0.05)
monoPokerGr posts big blind ($0.10)
---
Dealing pocket cards
Dealing to tonystarkpkr: [Ad, Ah]
pokeralhe folds
-E-Z- folds
tonystarkpkr raises $0.40 to $0.40
supersys003 folds
Secccco folds
kluivert25 calls $0.40
Cashman0023 folds
monoPokerGr raises $1.65 to $1.75
tonystarkpkr raises $4.60 to $5
kluivert25 folds
monoPokerGr raises $9.67 to $11.42 [all in]
tonystarkpkr calls $6.21 [all in]
---
--- Dealing flop [7s, Kc, 9d]
--- Dealing turn [Qs]
--- Dealing river [Ac]
---
Summary:
Main pot: $22.87 won by tonystarkpkr ($21.73)
Rake taken: $1.14
Seat 5: Cashman0023 ($3.79), net: -$0.05
Seat 6: monoPokerGr ($0.21), net: -$11.21, [As, Qd] (TWO_PAIR ACE, QUEEN)
Seat 7: pokeralhe ($15.29)
Seat 10: -E-Z- ($11.21)
Seat 1: tonystarkpkr ($21.73), net: +$10.52, [Ad, Ah] (THREE_OF_A_KIND ACE)
Seat 2: supersys003 ($11.80)
Seat 3: Secccco ($4.68)
Seat 4: kluivert25 ($9.20), net: -$0.40
***** End of hand R5-101736032-754 *****


***** History for hand R5-101266682-88 *****
Start hand: Wed Dec 1 12:32:28 GMT-0200 2010
Table: Asuncion [101266682] (NO_LIMIT TEXAS_HOLDEM $0.05/$0.10, Real money)
User: tonystarkpkr
Button: seat 1
Players in round: 9
Seat 2: david icke33 ($10.77)
Seat 3: duke123_x ($20.76)
Seat 5: kortezx ($9.50)
Seat 6: Tru3vil ($11.66)
Seat 7: Luckyyyy777 ($4.50)
Seat 8: DocKongas ($9.45)
Seat 9: Nannyman ($5.93)
Seat 10: v15insanity ($10.23)
Seat 1: tonystarkpkr ($9.95)
david icke33 posts small blind ($0.05)
duke123_x posts big blind ($0.10)
---
Dealing pocket cards
Dealing to tonystarkpkr: [Ac, As]
kortezx folds
Tru3vil folds
Luckyyyy777 folds
DocKongas raises $0.40 to $0.40
Nannyman folds
v15insanity folds
tonystarkpkr raises $1.25 to $1.25
david icke33 folds
duke123_x folds
DocKongas raises $2.60 to $3
tonystarkpkr raises $4.75 to $6
DocKongas calls $3
--- Dealing flop [3c, 7d, 9d]
DocKongas checks
tonystarkpkr bets $3.95 [all in]
DocKongas calls $3.45 [all in]
--- Dealing flop [3c, 7d, 9d]
--- Dealing turn [3s]
--- Dealing river [6c]
---
Summary:
Main pot: $19.05 won by tonystarkpkr ($18.10)
Rake taken: $0.95
Seat 2: david icke33 ($10.72), net: -$0.05
Seat 3: duke123_x ($20.66), net: -$0.10
Seat 5: kortezx ($9.50)
Seat 6: Tru3vil ($11.66)
Seat 7: Luckyyyy777 ($4.50)
Seat 8: DocKongas ($0), net: -$9.45, [Qc, Tc] (PAIR THREE)
Seat 9: Nannyman ($5.93)
Seat 10: v15insanity ($10.23)
Seat 1: tonystarkpkr ($18.60), net: +$8.65, [Ac, As] (TWO_PAIR ACE, THREE)
***** End of hand R5-101266682-88 *****