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Diesel7
11-01-2008, 11:10 AM
I want to calculate, what are my results for when I open Preflop, and C-bet with air (!!!NOT ANY DRAW OR MADE HAND!!!) and NOT taking into consideration if there was turn c-bet and river c-bet made as well. I wantto see just pure results of:
Open pre, c-bet with AIR. I want to know if I am not in negative there.

P.S. I sense that people in average(average player=fish) fold only less then 40-50% rather then their stats say that they fold over 50%, 60% etc)

morny
11-01-2008, 11:47 AM
Somthing on the lines fo

Filters > Edit > More Filters
PFR=true
Faced 3 bet = False
Flop Cbet Possible = true
Cbet made = true

Filter > Edit > Hand Value
Hand Value on flop
High Card - Two Overcards
High Card - One Overcard
High Card - No Overcards

Untick both draws on flop

Its likely to be a negative number however if you didnt cbet and check folded youd lose approx 3.5-4bb each time so if your doing better than -4bb then your not to bad

Diesel7
11-01-2008, 03:54 PM
There must be a mistake in that setup. It shows that I lose thousands of dollars(running at -194bb/100 !!!!). 767 hands out of total 37,158 hands.
The problem is, it also counts hands which i keep barreling/semibluffing, picked up some draws or whatever and it skews results, mixing it in too.
Is there a way to get aproximate picture of opening pre, C-betting with AIR and avoid results ofnext streets fights with any scenarios.

And it's not enough to just intick draws on flop. also you need to tick inside boxes - no flush draw and no str8 draw.

morny
11-02-2008, 09:57 AM
If you filter out the ones where there was no further action then it will only show 2 scenarios, you cbet and they folded or you cbetted and the raised and you folded, these would be terribly biased results, however if you want to see this then just select saw turn=false

Personally if i was losing so much id be concentrating on where i went wrong, cbetting very wet boards, cbetting multiway board, cbetting against stations and following up instead of giving up etc

Actually -194bb/100 isnt too bad, you have air, if you check folded every hand then youd be losing approx 350-400bb/100 so as long as your doing better than this its an improvement so i wouldnt be too worried

Diesel7
11-02-2008, 01:21 PM
Personally if i was losing so much id be concentrating on where i went wrong, cbetting very wet boards, cbetting multiway board, cbetting against stations and following up instead of giving up etc
Hm, I c-bet just as most of 2p2ers, maybe slightly higher average %age, but no things like c-betting into callstation or wetboards much or other stupid stuff.


Actually -194bb/100 isnt too bad, you have air, if you check folded every hand then youd be losing approx 350-400bb/100 so as long as your doing better than this its an improvement so i wouldnt be too worried

What is average bb/100 for winning regular then?(compare to my -194bb/100)
I thought that c-bet has to be about break-even (0bb/100, or at max -5bb/100). I am really confused now, by what you said in quotation.

KittyLiquor
11-03-2008, 02:49 PM
Also remember, if you only 'Cbet' with made hands, I'll see that you rarely Cbet in my HUD. So if you bet the flop, I'll always fold. If you Cbet a lot, then I'll start floating/raising you (with monsters/air.)

Crap, then we'll have to start playing poker. ;)

-----------Kitty

Diesel7
11-03-2008, 05:10 PM
~70% of players that i c-bet into are recreational players with not even knowing what the HUD is. But anyway, this is not the point i am trying to solve here.

morny
11-04-2008, 10:30 AM
My orignal comment that "If i was losing so much" was made before i thought about it, i then edited to say it wasnt so bad because when you think about it, you have air, if you dont cbet and give up you lose the 350bb/100 (3.5bb from raising preflop) so in theory losing less than that is an improvement.

When i wrote the pluggin leaks article i decided not to include cbetting simply because its too complicated to analyze because sometimes your up against a station, sometimes a nit, board texture plays a huge part and not to mention the times you cbet with air and improve and basically theres so many variatioons thats its very hard to asses especially if the hand ends up all in if you cbet air and improve on the turn and river it skews the results unless youve a huge sample.

The main reason i didnt include it in the plugging leaks article is that cbetting is very hard to get wrong, if you blindly cbet most boards and just make exceptions for wet boards and calling stations and paying attention to stats it will be profitable no question about it because even when people know your at it they still cant outplay a half decent player.

But there is a difference between cbetting and cbetting air, cbetting overall is profitable because sometimes your cbetting with the best hand, sometimes your cbetting a draw that hits and so on and alot of the time you even get them to fold a better hand or draw. I did write some things on double barrelling and i think that is worth alot more attention as you need to see if your barrelling the wrong boards, the wrong types of villains, so are you barrelling stations with air or medium pair, with air would be stupid, with medium pair it would probably be quite profitable etc

Anyway from the limited research of winning TAGs with an average of about a 100k sample, they were averaging about +500bb/100 when double barrelling overall yet they averaged -450bb/100 when double barrelling air, now 1st impressions would say -450bb/100 is terrible, but if they check folded then they would lose 3.5bb preflop and approx 6bb with a cbet so thats 9.5bb in total or -950bb/100 so losing 450bb/100 is actually not too bad and an improvement.

In summary if your looking at a sample of less than 50k your wasting your time, cbetting is very hard to get wrong if your following basic cbetting rules, the streets after you cbet are much more important since youll be cbetting 70% of the time and also the overall double barrell results are not very useful, dig deeper to see how your doing when DB with air, with a draw, with BP,MP etc and see if your following up with a 3rd barrell too often, if your DB the wrong type of villain or the wrong type of board etc and try to change that if your not happy.

My research was limited though so you really need a huge database to get a more accurate read. This all will be released in future pluggin leaks articles and Roy has a huge database so hell be able to add reliable data to the existing article along with hes own experience.

Diesel7
11-04-2008, 11:24 AM
Great response, m8! Looking into future to read and study that article.
But, that's not exactly what i was trying to figure out or maybe i'm still don't get it:
example:I open preflop for 3 times the blind w/69s, BB average fish calls with 25-50% range. Flop let's say A27r whatever. We c-bet 66-75% of the pot(looking at his fold to c-bet at about 50%). So in vacuum on average we should profit here(of course we will profit more by choosing well-timed DB and TB or any other moves, but let's ignore them for now for simplicity). So this immediate profit on the flop should be some 0 to +bb/100. I don't get it, how is this -hundreds bb/100? yes, I understand if we simply checking or folding air it's immediate -hundreds bb/100, but with our profitable immediate c-betting i don't get it.

morny
11-04-2008, 12:26 PM
If you look at it in a vacuum on the flop this is probably true in theory but not everyone does fold enough and since were looking at 3 streets and not just your action on the flop you cant really say if he folds more than 60% we make a profit because were not just looking at the flop:

lots of players in the 35-50+ VPIP call too much pre and post flop, if were cbetting wet flops or say a flop with 69o on KTx flop where we can only improve to 3rd pair for example then we might be throwing away money because they dont fold enough but sometimes against other players we have to cbet with muck so we dont make our cbets too transparent by only cbetting with decent hands/equity as Kitty already mentioned so in many cases were making a marginal or unprofitable move cbetting air but this is to disguse and we know overall it will be profitable but we sacrafice losing some money with air with the knowledge well make it back when cbetting with decent equity or monsters.

As i said i havent done any research into cbetting so maybe even -200bb/100 isnt good enough and we should be breaking even or better ive ran through my sample of 50k+ hands at 1/2 running at 6.5bb/100 over that sample and im losing -350bb/100 in this scenario, youll really need a big database to get an idea what range you should be falling in but i still think these results IMO are not very useful as what happens on later streets can very much dilute how your really doing cbetting, overall im running at +220bb/100 when cbetting but again i think thats pretty useless in analyzing any leaks.

I would suspect the potential to lose a big pot in later streets cbetting with air is much higher than with MP where well probably try and pot control or with strong hands where well win alot so id suspect we just have to sacrafice losing a bit with air to make it with the other hands when he have better than air.

Saying that it is interesting so maybe since Roy has the big database its something we might consider adding to the plugging leaks section.

Also your own style will have an effect, a 14/10 or 16/14 player cbetting 70% is alot different to a 25/22 lag cbetting 70%

Diesel7
11-04-2008, 01:33 PM
Well, then, I will start c-betting bad players less on flop with air, they do not realise this anyway, especially if double or triple barrels(even smartly chosen) have negative outcome. I can still c-bet with better than total air and they still call down. Hm...actually it's so close, with other considerations, like my c-betting frequency will be lower in reg's eyes if i do not c-bet with air into bad players( since my c-betting is mostly done with fish). there is really lots of things to think and analyse, but with possibility of filtering out different possibilities would be very helpfull.