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View Full Version : can some1 please explain me this graph



Shloogy
07-21-2008, 06:56 AM
hi , a small sample, just wanted to figure it out ..

http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/3053/46972036in8.th.jpg (http://img155.imageshack.us/my.php?image=46972036in8.jpg)


thanks in advance

morny
07-21-2008, 07:52 AM
The all in EV line is calculated only for all-in hands and only considers the pot size and equity you had when the hand went all-in. It is a measure of luck after the hands get all-in.

So in the section of the graph youve highlighted it appears that youve been running pretty much to expectation as your all in graph and actual graph are following the same path so from that it looks like when you got it all in and were behind you didnt outdraw and when you got it all in ahead you won for the most part.

If for example you had a big favourite in that sample like AA vs KK and the KK outdrew and hit a set then your Allin EV line would spike upwards but your actual winnings line would go down showing you had bad luck in that spot.

Shloogy
07-21-2008, 08:18 AM
okay i think i got it, how about this:
according what u have said above, on this one i have experienced a streak of "bad luck" right?

http://img246.imageshack.us/img246/8097/luckwe9.th.jpg (http://img246.imageshack.us/my.php?image=luckwe9.jpg)

morny
07-21-2008, 01:59 PM
Yes particularly in the early stages of the graph.

frogp07
07-21-2008, 04:31 PM
http://img519.imageshack.us/my.php?image=88388758qj4.jpg

so for my graph, am i below expectation? and also could u show me where i might be running under expectation.

Shloogy
07-22-2008, 02:15 AM
from what i understand, only around 500 u had a slight drop under ev.as for the rest it looks pretty much good.but lets see what morny says..

Gregster6
07-22-2008, 11:31 AM
Yes particularly in the early stages of the graph.

You sure about the "early stages" bit Morny?

On that second graph it looks like the lines continue to diverge as the number of hands increases, at what looks like a pretty consistent rate.

The first graph looks like "bad luck early on but now we're back on track"

The second graph looks like "This "bad luck" can't continue"

Shloogy
07-22-2008, 12:02 PM
so greg i dont understand what u where tryin to say, whther my 2nd grpah was played bad or a bad luck?

plus, morny i saw that pookerEV offers a feature that called "equity adjusted" and was thinking that its necessary. any chance of adding it?

thanks,

Gregster6
07-22-2008, 12:23 PM
so greg i dont understand what u where tryin to say, whther my 2nd grpah was played bad or a bad luck?

plus, morny i saw that pookerEV offers a feature that called "equity adjusted" and was thinking that its necessary. any chance of adding it?

thanks,

alish,

I was questioning Morny's interpretation of the second graph.

When he said about the "bad luck" up-front I thought he may be still talking about the first graph. Like I said above, it looks to me like the second graph represents a consistent run of "bad luck". If I had to guess I'd say that it the second graph actually shows the origins of the gap shown in the first graph.

I'm defo not qualified to say whether your "bad luck" is really bad luck or not. I only put bad luck in speechmarks("") because you did in your earlier post. I'm certainly not poking fun at your "bad luck" because (a) I wouldn't do that and (b) I have plenty of "bad luck" of my own to contend with!

Cheers

morny
07-22-2008, 01:32 PM
In the 2nd graph before the 10,xxx or so mark and around that mark you can see the winnings hitting downwards at about 75-80o whereas hes EV line is probably on a 45-50o for that same period. Im no expert on this either just explaining it as best i can. So basically if the EV line is taking a steeper line downwards than the winnings line your probably having a run of bad luck/variance.

ynot
09-11-2008, 02:26 AM
I've been looking at this graph, because it didnt make sense to me.

This is what I've ended up with to explain it.

First bring up "Todays" stats in Reports and Sessions. Then bring up all the hands (instead of Last 100) in Reports and sort them based on the "EV$Diff". Now you add up all these figures which shows how well you've done in all in situations. Lets say you have won $500 less on all in situations than you're "suppose" to.

Now go back to the Sessions tab. We wanna look at the two columns "$" and "$EV". The first one shows our actuall winnings, but "$EV" is the same winnings PLUS the total from "EV$Diff" that we calculated earlier. So if our total winnings was $2000 our $EV would be $2500. If our total winnings was a loss of -$2000, our $EV would be -$1500.

The all in graph is (I think) a graph of $EV. This means that it shows how much your total winnings should have been if you had won your EXACT share in all in situations.

Personally, I'd think a graph of the "EV$Diff" from the Reports tab would be much more helpful. This would show exactly how you're doing in all in situations, and would be a number floating around 0. If it is positive you know you're running bad etc. I think this is what people intuitively wants from an all in graph?