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View Full Version : Yet another wrong EV calculation?



ninja
10-03-2010, 08:34 AM
Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players
The Official 2+2 (http://www.twoplustwo.com/) Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos (http://www.deucescracked.com/)

SB: $58.90
Hero (BB): $51.50
CO: $59.65
BTN: $40.30

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with Jhttp://static.deucescracked.com/images/diamond.gif Ahttp://static.deucescracked.com/images/diamond.gif
CO raises to $3, BTN calls $3, 1 fold, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($9.50) Jhttp://static.deucescracked.com/images/club.gif 5http://static.deucescracked.com/images/club.gif 7http://static.deucescracked.com/images/diamond.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets $3, Hero raises to $10, CO calls $10, BTN raises to $37.30 all in, Hero raises to $48.50 all in, CO calls $38.50

Turn: ($143.80) Thttp://static.deucescracked.com/images/spade.gif (3 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($143.80) 9http://static.deucescracked.com/images/diamond.gif (3 players - 2 are all in)
CO has AQcc
BTN has AJo

I shove and risk 38.50 more for this to happen:
5% of the time I win my 10$ + lisztes 10$ + dudus stack 37.30$ + since lisztes calls his 38.50$ equals 95.8
48% of the time I split with dudu + win the amount I cover lisztes more means I win 11.2$ + 37.30*0.5=18.65 equals 29,85
47% of the time I lose 38.50 to a flush equals -38.50

Lets add:
0.05*95.8 + 0.48*29,85 + 0.47*(-38.50) =
4.79 + 14.328 - 18,095 = +1.023

Makes the play +EV, if I play 100 hands like this i have an EV BB/100 of +50.

HEM says my EV BB/100 after this hand is -280.50 means -2.805 BB on one hand means >-5.5$ on the hand. Makes no sense, since the play is obviously neutral EV when you get it in to split 3ways.

netsrak
10-03-2010, 12:53 PM
Please check this: FAQ - Hold'em Manager Poker Tracking Software :: EV Explained (http://faq.holdemmanager.com/questions/120/EV+Explained)

The hand is not readable like you posted it. There are cards missing on the flop.

ninja
10-05-2010, 07:18 AM
Edited

netsrak
10-06-2010, 05:50 AM
We need to check this hand. Please zip and mail the original handhistory file (you find them in the HM archive folder or in the handhistory folder of your poker client) together with a link to this thread and an explanation of the problem to support@holdemmanager.net. We will then try to reproduce the problem.