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Gato
10-01-2010, 03:20 AM
OK, I just moved back to cash and now I have just played my 10,000th hand. As many I am a little curious about that elusive term: True Winrate.

I know, I really do. It takes a zillion hands to get a good estimate of this parameter and even when you get there it will very likely have changed.

Anyway, I was curious to see how I can calculate the standard deviation that my bb/100 shows in those 100 sessions to put this in a calculator and see how it goes, but I could not find an easy way to do this. Excel? Hints will be much appreciated.

Instead I ran into the "Expected Value" by stakes report and would like to know what does it mean, how are the stats calculated, what are the basis for saying that for instance EV bb/100 = 2.44 given that in the 10K hands sample we have a 7.36 bb/100.

Any help and thoughts will be much appreciated.

Regards.

Patvs
10-02-2010, 03:54 AM
EV BB/100 only uses the All-In EV. And basically recalculates the BB/100 winrate, based on the same All-In EV graph.

Watch video @ FAQ - Hold'em Manager Poker Tracking Software :: EV Explained (http://faq.holdemmanager.com/questions/120/EV+Explained)
All-In-EV will be the best method to see how good/bad/neutral you're running over 10.000 hands.


Standard deviation: we don't do standard deviation. I know Bayes Theorem which they use in the book The Mathematics of Poker (page 32 - 41) to get a winrate probability distribution.

p (B / A) =


p (A / B) p (B)
-----------------------------
p (A / B) p (B) + p (A / B) p (B)

:)

Gato
10-02-2010, 11:32 AM
Hey Patvs, thanks for your interest. But no, we don't need something as powerful as Bayes'. This is much more simple and has to do with confidence intervals:

Fact:

Given your actual data set, where n is the number of hands played, W is the total number of BB's won in actuality, z is the number of SD's you consider to be confident, S is your standard deviation, your win rate can be expressed as:

W/n +/- z*S/sqrt(n)


What I needed was a HM stat for the standard deviation, I wasn`t able to find it. So I did this, posting just in case some other curious user needs it:

1. Open a Hands Report.

2. Right click

3. Select "Copy Grid to csv file"

Then I chose the folder to save the file.

Open it with Excel.

Calculate, using the stats Excel functions the standard deviation for the sample of n hands. n= 10000 in this case.

Best.