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View Full Version : EV vs. range instead of actual holding



OliK79
09-14-2010, 10:18 AM
Hey guys,

if the following sounds stupid, please forgive me ;)

I just wondered if it would be possible to have a kind of EV-adjusted graph that doesn't only calculate the EV against the actual cards the other guy holds, but against the range of the other guy.

I know, this only really works assuming a preflop allin, but my considerations are: I so often have the feeling (especially in shallow stack situations in a SNG) that I'm running really bad ALTHOUGH the EV adjusted graph goes down along with the green line. But a major factor that isn't considered is a situation similar to the following:

I'm in the bubble in a STT. I already push too tight regarding ICM considerations because I'm against superloose guys. As I get AQs, I'm happy to shove and do so. The guy behind me with something like 55/38 in the BB calls and shows pocket queens. It's no question that I "deserved" to lose against pocket queens and the all-in ev must have to take this into account. But it's also some kind of luck for this guy to hold queens at this moment, having called shoves with T7o before.

This is a kind of extreme example but you get the idea. I'm unfortunately not yet that comfortable with the mathematical factors of the game, but would it in some kind be possible to take that into account?

Perhaps by creating some custom filter? Or would this make no sense at all because it doesn't tell anything about my game?

Thanks in advance for reading,
Oli

Patvs
09-15-2010, 03:21 AM
It's not possible, since HM can't accurately CALCULATE ranges.

If you push AQ into a 55/38 player, that says nothing about what his allin CALLING range is.

Even if you DO know his calling range based on his stats, it's not accurate enough, since this might change based on the number of players left, might be completely different for bubble play, and you'll never have enough hands of this player to come even close to accurate stats to calculate this

OliK79
09-15-2010, 09:45 AM
Okay, I understand. I really can't imagine a precise way to calculate his calling range, and inaccurate information is possible worse than no information.

I just got so angry about plenty of such situations yesterday, where I couldn't calm myself by looking at the EV-graph instead. So I wished I had a graph that took that bad luck into account.

But of course I understand that it isn't possible. Nevertheless, thank you for reading and replying!

Oli