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View Full Version : 1.12.11b HUSNG EV issue?



aggsyb
12-19-2012, 02:47 PM
Hi,

Im on 1.12.11b and I dont know if its an EV issue or im just being dumb , but this is the hand

PokerStars Hand #91001615339: Tournament #660496485, $196.66+$3.34 USD Hold'em No Limit - Match Round I, Level III (20/40) - 2012/12/19 13:06:46 ET
Table '660496485 1' 2-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: AggsyB (445 in chips)
Seat 2: flippetyflop (555 in chips)
flippetyflop: posts small blind 20
AggsyB: posts big blind 40
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to AggsyB [9d 9h]
flippetyflop: raises 515 to 555 and is all-in
AggsyB: calls 405 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (110) returned to flippetyflop
*** FLOP *** [Kc 8c Kd]
*** TURN *** [Kc 8c Kd] [Th]
*** RIVER *** [Kc 8c Kd Th] [4d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
AggsyB: shows [9d 9h] (two pair, Kings and Nines)
flippetyflop: shows [Ad 5c] (a pair of Kings)
AggsyB collected 890 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 890 | Rake 0
Board [Kc 8c Kd Th 4d]
Seat 1: AggsyB (big blind) showed [9d 9h] and won (890) with two pair, Kings and Nines
Seat 2: flippetyflop (button) (small blind) showed [Ad 5c] and lost with a pair of Kings


This game shows up as negative $106.77 in $EV won , which is so odd because in a very similar spot in a different game I shove K9o into KQand shows up as negative $16x am I just overlooking something or is there a calculation error?

PokerStars Hand #91001650136: Tournament #660496485, $196.66+$3.34 USD Hold'em No Limit - Match Round I, Level III (20/40) - 2012/12/19 13:07:25 ET
Table '660496485 1' 2-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: AggsyB (620 in chips)
Seat 2: flippetyflop (380 in chips)
AggsyB: posts small blind 20
flippetyflop: posts big blind 40
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to AggsyB [Ts 8s]
AggsyB: raises 580 to 620 and is all-in
flippetyflop: calls 340 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (240) returned to AggsyB
*** FLOP *** [Js 2h 6h]
*** TURN *** [Js 2h 6h] [9c]
*** RIVER *** [Js 2h 6h 9c] [8c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
flippetyflop: shows [Ad Kh] (high card Ace)
AggsyB: shows [Ts 8s] (a pair of Eights)
AggsyB collected 760 from pot
flippetyflop finished the tournament in 2nd place
AggsyB wins the tournament and receives $393.32 - congratulations!
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 760 | Rake 0
Board [Js 2h 6h 9c 8c]
Seat 1: AggsyB (button) (small blind) showed [Ts 8s] and won (760) with a pair of Eights
Seat 2: flippetyflop (big blind) showed [Ad Kh] and lost with high card Ace

This was the other hand in the match which shows as -$180.41 EV diff , Im either being extremely dumb and missing something (have been grinding for about 20 hours straight) or something isnt right here ?

Patvs
12-19-2012, 10:26 PM
Simplified math:
Hand 1: 99 vs A5 (70% vs 30%).
$196 buyin
You have a 70% to double up (you don't automatically win the game, if you win the hand)
You have a 30% to lose the game (you'll be eliminated when you lose the hand)

Your equity is: (70% *$350 ) + (30% * $0) = +$245
(if you would end up with 890 chips those chips have a value of about $350)
You end up winning the hand. So you end up with $350 worth of chips. Your equity was only +$245, resulting in a EV Diff of -$105.





Hand 2:
T8s vs AK (40% vs 60%)
$196 buyin
You have a 40% to automatically win the game, if you win the hand
You have a 60% to lose the hand, losing the chiplead


Your equity is: (40% *$392) + (60% * $105) = +$212
($105 is an estimate based on your chipstack... if you'd lose the hand you'd still have 240 chips left)

You end up winning the hand. So you end up with $392 worth of chips. Your equity was only +$212, resulting in a EV Diff of -$180.