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View Full Version : How can you have a negative EV for a SNG?



buffybegood
08-12-2010, 07:12 PM
I'm playing a good few SNGs at the moment, and although I'm running very bad in my "All ins" bizarrely I'm above "Adjusted EV" according to HEM. One of the things that makes me query the accuracy of your calculations is that in the HEM analysis of a SNG I might end up with a minus amount "Adjusted EV". I understand how this has been arrived at (EG I suck out on someone, then I don't cash), but surely it is fundamentally wrong to have an EV return outside of the range zero-top prize; it's impossible to have a return of less than zero (once you've bought in) and higher than the top prize.

Am I missing something or is this an obvious flaw in the accuracy of the "Adjusted EV" figures for SNGs in HEM?

Patvs
08-13-2010, 01:09 AM
FAQ - Hold'em Manager Poker Tracking Software :: Holdem Manager Video Library (http://faq.holdemmanager.com/questions/374/HoldemManagerVideoLibrary)
(take a look at the EV video)

Your EV outside of the range is perfectly normal.
Most common example if a $10 DOUBLE OR NOTHING SNG.
Where it's possible your EV is -$20 (2x the actual buyin) or +$30 (+$10 more than you can actually win!)

It may appear wrong for this one SNG. But if will benefit for your overall SNG EV results if we DO allow the EV to go beyond the obvious range.

The Minder
08-13-2010, 01:47 AM
I disagree with the analysis.

First, EV is quantifiable and appropriate for ring games where the ability to continually reload after a beat supports long term stats in line with Pascal's probabilities. Essentially, a ring game player's 'life' is the total time ever played at cash games irrespective of limits; it is continuing. However, a tourney player's 'life' is the length of a tourney and thus the player has many 'lives', each being unique. The tourney player cannot reload (let's exclude rebuys for a minute which bring in a whole new raft of issues) in the space of one 'life' to ensure EV balances or indeed becomes meaningful with regards to probabilities.

Second, if EV data is combined or displayed with tournies other than STTs it becomes diluted and disproportional. The reason being that HM is not always aware of tourney size and payout structure. Additionally, HM cannot account for coolers so again the data is diluted.

Third, in a tourney we're talking about T$, not $. T$ have no value outside the tourney. $ only come into play when the player is itm.

Because of this, the concept of EV being outside the tourney parameters is, imo, nonsensical.

Patvs
08-13-2010, 03:46 AM
I disagree with The Minder...

First.. the Independent Chip Model where tourney EV is based on.. DOES take into account where the player "is" (in what stage) of the tourney. Specific situations (bubble, headsup, even allins among other bigstacks) will have a much larger impact on the player's equity than others. (example: early double up)

Second.. tourney EV only works for STT (single table tournies), where HoldemManager IS aware of the tourney size and payout.

It's true HM can't account for coolers..... but the same coolers aren't taken into account in the EV in cashgames either.

The Minder
08-13-2010, 04:19 AM
Happy to disagree Patvs. I prefer my math to be immutable.