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Angribob
08-12-2010, 12:40 PM
Hello,

I realise that there are several threads on this already but I am very confused :confused:

1) Does all in EV calculate correctly at this time?
2) Is all in EV the same as $ (EV adjusted)?
3) Does this figure take into account all pots won/lost not just those 'all in'?
4) If all in EV = zero then am I a breakeven player regardless of actuall winnings (over decent sample size of course)?

Thanks for your help
Angribob

Patvs
08-13-2010, 01:39 AM
-1 YES
-2 Tournies have: cEV (chip EV), $EV Diff (which uses the ICM model to see how much your equity in a SNG changes based on a allin hand.
The SUM of all the $EV Diff is the $EV Won.
-3 In calculating EV we only look as allin hands that take place BEFORE the river. (note: if you FOLD preflop!.. and two opponents go allin against each other.. that hand can also affect YOUR EV)
-4 If your EV is EQUAL to the amount you actually won/lost--> it only means you're running how you're supposed to run. It doesn't mean you're a breakeven player.


watch EV video at FAQ - Hold'em Manager Poker Tracking Software :: Holdem Manager Video Library (http://faq.holdemmanager.com/questions/374/HoldemManagerVideoLibrary)

and read: For a long time I wanted a "EV per street" calculation until I read: http://forums.holdemmanager.com/3rd-party-programs-compatible-holdem-manager/16665-enter-sect-7.html


Summary:

The EV "problem" what some people don't understand:
A: If a player has 0 outs, or
B: the allin situation takes place on the river there is NO EV DIFFERENCE.
C: If a shortstack goes allin preflop, and is called by two bigstacks. And the two bigstacks continue to bet on the flop, turn or river, this situation is treated as situation B. (EV = 0)
Fozzy: "You can't calculate all-in equity if you don't know the hands you are up against."
D: If you commit 99% of your stack with the best hand, but your last 1% goes allin with the worst hand, the $EV Difference will be calculated by your entire stack.

Why "EV by street" (which people who often see situation D want) is a bad thing:

Example:
- you have AA, you raise to 80% of your stack, donkey calls, flop comes K83 rainbow.
- you then go all-in, no matter the flop, because you're committed.
- out of 100 times, 88 times donkey folds.
- 12 times donkeys calls with a set (33/88/KK).
What shall EV by street wrongly do? It shall do no computations for the 88 times where donkey folded--> "no more calculation".
What shall EV by street do the 12 times where donkey calls with a set? "Show that donkey sucked out and that you got unlucky".

So although you ran obviouslyreally good by having donkey folding 88 times out of 100. EV by street focuses on the 12 times where donkey hit his set and tells that you're running below EV.
This is a well-known gambler fallacy. And this is why "EV by street" is completely bogus.

Note: Tristanblue writes "it's precisely because EV by street does nothing to your adjusted-graph on these cases where the opponent folded that it is wrong".

But what if your opponent never folds? Suppose there are two players A and B.
Player A has AA, B has KK. (both have $100 stacks). They commit half their stack preflop and the flop comes AK6. Player B (KK has 1 "out") to win the hand.
If I would play this hand I would always make sure I'm allin on the turn.
However Player X always commits the rest of his stack on the flop and turn *except for one dollar*. And he commits on the river.
Of course, 4% of the time, the rivercard is the case King. Player X's EV Diff is always 0. (because he goes allin on the river)
My EV Diff (I go allin on the turn) is -$4 (96 out of 100 times) and +$96 (4 out of 100 times)
So our EV graph actually looks exactly the same after 100 of these hands.
(-4 x 96 + 96 + 4 = also equals 0!) So the EV outcome is the same no matter how you play the hand.