EV negative despite the numbers given

[theuxtonix]

hello everybody...

i first want to apologize if i am not understood but my mother tongue is french and i only learned english at school... so if something is not clear in what i am writing don't hesitate to tell me so that i can explain my problem in other way...

i want to tell you that HEM is an extraordinary tool and i learn about it everyday thanks to the videos made by some admins or so (i don't know exactly who do these videos)...

my problem is the following : i really appreciate the cEV and $EV calculator because it permits to know where i stand if cards didn't fall for or against me (hope you understand what i mean)... but i have some questions about that because sometimes, i am favorite from the begining until the end of the hand and my $EV (or cEV) is negative! How is it possible?

for example : SnG => 2 players remaining (final HU)

I am at the BB (6920 chips) : Ante 50 + BB 600 (6270 chips)
Villain is at the Button (6580 chips) : Ante 50 + SB 300 (6230 chips)

he goes All In and i call

I got A7o and he has QJo wich mean that i am favorite for 56% against his 44%...

Flop is 7h K4 3s and odds are 72% for me and 28% for Villain

Turn is 6s and odds are 86% for me and 14% for Villain

River is 2d and odds are 100% for me and 0% for Villain (i win the tourney :D)

I win 6580 chips but the cEV tells me that i could have lost 5816 chips!

Can you explain me how this is possible? I am favorite pre-flop, flop, turn and river... how come that the difference is nearly 12000 chips between win and loss?

thank you for your explanations...

[_Loki_]

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Bonjour theuxtonix

My French comes from les Madames, wine bottle labels & great French films. Beautiful. Your pop music is a crime against humanity though :)

Please read this & it may help you:
>> FAQ - Hold'em Manager Poker Tracking Software :: EV Explained (http://faq.holdemmanager.com/questions/120/EV+Explained)

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[theuxtonix]

thanks loki but i am not sure to understand... in the example given (AA on a flop Axx vs flush draw), the EV is positive (+$322)... so why is my EV negative when i am a favorite since pre-flop to river???

[netsrak]

Is it the EV or the EV(diff) which is negative? Please post a screenshot of the figures for the hand.

[theuxtonix]

(http://img405.imageshack.us/i/89288065.png/)

Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)

there it is ;)

[Patvs]

HERO (6920 chips)
Villain (6580 chips)


You win the hand--> you win the HU (56%)
You lose the hand--> you have 340 chips left (44%)

Your cEV is (56% x 6580) - (44% x 6580) = 3684.4 - 2895.2 = +789.2

You won 6580. (but you should have only won 789 chips) So you cEV Diff is -6580 + 789 = -5791 (-5816 using more accurate 56/44 percentages)

[theuxtonix]

Ok, thank you, it is clear now...

i thought that cEV was the same as cEV diff (i think this is the mistake i made)...

so i have another question :

how can i see the cEV in the hands in HEM? Or how can i see what should be my results if luck and cards didn't play a role? that is intersting to see if i am a winner or a looser on a long period of play...

in this case, i should win $789.2 if i play 100 hands like this and that luck doesn't come... but i don't know where i can find this information...


can someone help please?

thank you :)

[netsrak]

We have some columns for the EV in the reports. If you don't see them there you can add them via the green + symbol on the right side.

[theuxtonix]

ok, thank you very much... i found a green + symbol but on the left side... i don't know if yours is at another place than mine or if there is another symbol that i don't find...

whatever...

thank you very much to all of you... it is very kind of you having helped me ;-)

[netsrak]

Sorry, my right is your left :)