Incorrect All-in ev calculation

[Chinga2madre]

I went allin preflop and had 16% according to HM but it shows 10% (ev on flop)



----PRIMA.DAT----

<Game id="3453663440" date="2010-08-01 20:35:49" unicodetablename="TQBvAG4AdABhAG4AbwAgADQA" tablename="Montano 4" stakes="0.25|0.50" betlimit="PL" tabletype="Cash Game" gametypeid="50" gametype="Omaha" realmoney="true" currencysymbol="rCA=" playerseat="2" betamount="5000" istournament="0" rake="300">
<Seats>
<Seat num="1" alias="Paxis" unicodealias="UABhAHgAaQBzAA==" balance="142.86" endbalance="0.00"/>
<Seat num="2" alias="Chinga2madre" unicodealias="QwBoAGkAbgBnAGEAMgBtAGEAZAByAGUA" balance="50.00" endbalance="247.50" dealer="true"/>
<Seat num="3" alias="kryckanII" unicodealias="awByAHkAYwBrAGEAbgBJAEkA" balance="306.63" endbalance="390.84"/>
<Seat num="4" alias="pinnen68" unicodealias="cABpAG4AbgBlAG4ANgA4AA==" balance="50.23" endbalance="49.73"/>
<Seat num="5" alias="PayMeTooDonk" unicodealias="UABhAHkATQBlAFQAbwBvAEQAbwBuAGsA" balance="68.33" endbalance="0.00"/>
<Seat num="6" alias="NOBBY6" unicodealias="TgBPAEIAQgBZADYA" balance="73.02" endbalance="0.00"/>
</Seats>
<Gameplay>
<Action seq="1" type="SmallBlind" seat="3" value="0.25"/>
<Action seq="2" type="BigBlind" seat="4" value="0.50"/>
<Action seq="3" type="DealCards" seat="2">
<Card value="6" suit="s" id="5"/>
<Card value="9" suit="s" id="8"/>
<Card value="J" suit="s" id="10"/>
<Card value="10" suit="d" id="35"/>
</Action>
<Action seq="4" type="Call" seat="5" value="0.50"/>
<Action seq="5" type="Call" seat="6" value="0.50"/>
<Action seq="6" type="Raise" seat="1" value="2.75"/>
<Action seq="7" type="Call" seat="2" value="2.75"/>
<Action seq="8" type="Call" seat="3" value="2.75"/>
<Action seq="9" type="Fold" seat="4"/>
<Action seq="10" type="Raise" seat="5" value="14.75"/>
<Action seq="11" type="Call" seat="6" value="14.75"/>
<Action seq="12" type="Call" seat="1" value="14.75"/>
<Action seq="13" type="Call" seat="2" value="14.75"/>
<Action seq="14" type="Raise" seat="3" value="89.00"/>
<Action seq="15" type="AllIn" seat="5" value="53.58"/>
<Action seq="16" type="AllIn" seat="6" value="58.27"/>
<Action seq="17" type="Call" seat="1" value="89.00"/>
<Action seq="18" type="AllIn" seat="2" value="35.25"/>
<Action seq="19" type="DealFlop">
<Card value="8" suit="d" id="33"/>
<Card value="J" suit="d" id="36"/>
<Card value="5" suit="h" id="43"/>
</Action>
<Action seq="20" type="AllIn" seat="3" value="217.63"/>
<Action seq="21" type="AllIn" seat="1" value="53.86"/>
<Action seq="22" type="DealTurn">
<Card value="7" suit="c" id="19"/>
</Action>
<Action seq="23" type="DealRiver">
<Card value="6" suit="c" id="18"/>
</Action>
<Action seq="24" type="ShowCards" seat="3">
<Card value="4" suit="d" id="29"/>
<Card value="A" suit="d" id="26"/>
<Card value="7" suit="s" id="6"/>
<Card value="A" suit="c" id="13"/>
</Action>
<Action seq="25" type="MuckCards" seat="1">
<Card value="5" suit="d" id="30"/>
<Card value="K" suit="d" id="38"/>
<Card value="K" suit="h" id="51"/>
<Card value="A" suit="s" id="0"/>
</Action>
<Action seq="26" type="MuckCards" seat="6">
<Card value="9" suit="h" id="47"/>
<Card value="Q" suit="s" id="11"/>
<Card value="J" suit="h" id="49"/>
<Card value="4" suit="s" id="3"/>
</Action>
<Action seq="27" type="MuckCards" seat="5">
<Card value="Q" suit="c" id="24"/>
<Card value="Q" suit="h" id="50"/>
<Card value="10" suit="c" id="22"/>
<Card value="A" suit="h" id="39"/>
</Action>
<Action seq="28" type="ShowCards" seat="2">
<Card value="6" suit="s" id="5"/>
<Card value="9" suit="s" id="8"/>
<Card value="J" suit="s" id="10"/>
<Card value="10" suit="d" id="35"/>
</Action>
<Action type="Win">
<Seat num="2" amount="247.50" pot="0" type="" lowhandwin="0"/>
<Seat num="3" amount="73.32" pot="1" type="" lowhandwin="0"/>
<Seat num="3" amount="14.07" pot="2" type="" lowhandwin="0"/>
<Seat num="3" amount="139.68" pot="3" type="" lowhandwin="0"/>
</Action>
</Gameplay>
</Game>

ExtendedTableName: Montano 4 [183199]

[Chinga2madre]

fk. it removes tags
here is the hand
weaktight | Hand | 6s9sJsTd - $0.25/$0.50 Pot Limit Omaha Hi (http://weaktight.com/2502258)

I can send it by mail.

[netsrak]

yep, please send it via mail with link to this thread and explanation.
Support@holdemmanager.com

[Chinga2madre]

Sent

[Patvs]

"You went allin preflop and had 16% according to HM"
"but it shows 10%"

I'm confused. So where did it say 10%?
I'm guessing it said 16% in the replayer..... but in ANY NORMAL pokercalculator it says only 10%?

The 6% is the chance of a splitpot. The HoldemManager replayer will ADD chance to WIN + chance of a SPLITPOT and display that in the replayer.

If you click the ICM button you should see the correct odds.

[Chinga2madre]

ok. one more similar hand that has the same issue. Played on PS.
Shows EV=0.8 which I had on flop.

ProPokerTools.com - Serious tools for serious players (http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=3c8s3h&g=oh&h1=AdAhKcJs&h2=AcJcAs4s&h3=Qh7hQs3d)

0.8% on flop
~8% to win on preflop


PokerStars Game #44750877792: Omaha Pot Limit ($0.25/$0.50 USD) - 2010/05/28 18:07:09 CT [2010/05/28 19:07:09 ET]
Table 'Nereid IX' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: jkolobok ($25 in chips)
Seat 2: vamos ($25.20 in chips)
Seat 3: Kotone111 ($87.20 in chips)
Seat 5: greenothegre ($40.75 in chips)
Seat 6: fridolin ($40.35 in chips)
fridolin: posts small blind $0.25
jkolobok: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jkolobok [Ad Ah Kc Js]
vamos: folds
Kotone111: raises $1 to $1.50
greenothegre: raises $1 to $2.50
fridolin: folds
jkolobok: raises $6.75 to $9.25
Kotone111: calls $7.75
greenothegre: raises $28 to $37.25
jkolobok: calls $15.75 and is all-in
Kotone111: calls $28
*** FLOP *** [3c 8s 3h]
Kotone111: bets $4
greenothegre: calls $3.50 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($0.50) returned to Kotone111
*** TURN *** [3c 8s 3h] [Ks]
*** RIVER *** [3c 8s 3h Ks] [4h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Kotone111: shows [Qh 3d 7h Qs] (three of a kind, Threes)
greenothegre: shows [Jc Ac 4s As] (two pair, Aces and Threes)
Kotone111 collected $31.50 from side pot
jkolobok: shows [Ad Ah Kc Js] (two pair, Aces and Threes)
Kotone111 collected $73.25 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $106.75 Main pot $73.25. Side pot $31.50. | Rake $2
Board [3c 8s 3h Ks 4h]
Seat 1: jkolobok (big blind) showed [Ad Ah Kc Js] and lost with two pair, Aces and Threes
Seat 2: vamos folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Kotone111 showed [Qh 3d 7h Qs] and won ($104.75) with three of a kind, Threes
Seat 5: greenothegre (button) showed [Jc Ac 4s As] and lost with two pair, Aces and Threes
Seat 6: fridolin (small blind) folded before Flop

[Patvs]

Basically it's unfair to put this hand in a pokerhand calculator. 3-way preflop allin:
[Ad Ah Kc Js] vs [3c 8s 3h] [Ks] vs [3c 8s 3h Ks] [4h]
because that's NOT how the hand played out.

This hand is special... you may be allin preflop with the best hand.
But since your two opponents are not and can continue the betting (potentially one getting the other player to FOLD) it's not possible for HoldemManager to calculate your EV.

Reason being: if one of the other players fold postflop, we never get to see his hand. Maybe he had the best hand preflop! So the fair EV calculation is to NOT assign you any allin EV in both situations.

[Chinga2madre]

Reason being: if one of the other players fold postflop, we never get to see his hand. Maybe he had the best hand preflop! So the fair EV calculation is to NOT assign you any allin EV in both situations.
So you calculate EV if everyone is all-in and don't calculate if some1 folded.

[Patvs]

No we don't assign YOU any EV, because the other two players weren't allin and one of them could potentially fold.

In your hand, they didn't fold.
So we can tell you your EV (based on a 3-way preflop allin). But... if we assign you this EV...., and we can't correctly assign you EV when one of the other two players fold (in other hands)--> it completely messes up the longterm EV line.

So the best solution is to NEVER give you allin EV, if the betting between two other players continues. This may appear strange..... and seems to screw up your EV for this ONE hand (where you had the best hand)--> but it'll lead to the best longterm accurate EV line.

[BR50Kab]

Is all-in EV also not calculated in HU situations where your opponent or you are not all-in? Does this apply the same to NLHE as to PLO?

[Patvs]

"Allin-EV is only calculated when a player is allin and there is no more further betting (that includes between other players) possible"


In HU situations: (both in PLO and NLHE)
the EV is ONLY calculated when one of the players is allin.

So if you commit 99% of you stack on the turn and your opponent only has 1 out. And you go allin on the river--> your EV will always be 0. Also when he sucks out on you.

This is the accurate EV calculation.
It seems unfair.. since you committed 99% of your stack with the best hand.
For a long time I thought it was unfair (and I wanted a "EV per street" calculation) until I read: http://forums.holdemmanager.com/3rd-party-programs-compatible-holdem-manager/16665-enter-sect-7.html


Summary:

The EV "problem" what some people don't understand:
A: If a player has 0 outs, or
B: the allin situation takes place on the river there is NO EV DIFFERENCE.
C: If a shortstack goes allin preflop, and is called by two bigstacks. And the two bigstacks continue to bet on the flop, turn or river, this situation is treated as situation B. (EV = 0)
Fozzy: "You can't calculate all-in equity if you don't know the hands you are up against."
D: If you commit 99% of your stack with the best hand, but your last 1% goes allin with the worst hand, the $EV Difference will be calculated by your entire stack.

Why "EV by street" (which people who often see situation D want) is a bad thing:

Example:
- you have AA, you raise to 80% of your stack, donkey calls, flop comes K83 rainbow.
- you then go all-in, no matter the flop, because you're committed.
- out of 100 times, 88 times donkey folds.
- 12 times donkeys calls with a set (33/88/KK).
What shall EV by street wrongly do? It shall do no computations for the 88 times where donkey folded--> "no more calculation".
What shall EV by street do the 12 times where donkey calls with a set? "Show that donkey sucked out and that you got unlucky".

So although you ran obviouslyreally good by having donkey folding 88 times out of 100. EV by street focuses on the 12 times where donkey hit his set and tells that you're running below EV.
This is a well-known gambler fallacy. And this is why "EV by street" is completely bogus.

Note: Tristanblue writes "it's precisely because EV by street does nothing to your adjusted-graph on these cases where the opponent folded that it is wrong".

But what if your opponent never folds? Suppose there are two players A and B.
Player A has AA, B has KK. (both have $100 stacks). They commit half their stack preflop and the flop comes AK6. Player B (KK has 1 "out") to win the hand.
If I would play this hand I would always make sure I'm allin on the turn.
However Player X always commits the rest of his stack on the flop and turn *except for one dollar*. And he commits on the river.
Of course, 4% of the time, the rivercard is the case King. Player X's EV Diff is always 0. (because he goes allin on the river)
My EV Diff (I go allin on the turn) is -$4 (96 out of 100 times) and +$96 (4 out of 100 times)
So our EV graph actually looks exactly the same after 100 of these hands.
(-4 x 96 + 96 + 4 = also equals 0!) So the longterm EV outcome is the same no matter how you play the hand. It only looks messed up for this one hand where you got sucked out on.