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LeviJ88
07-25-2010, 05:32 PM
Say you commit to a pot and start betting at it, getting 99% of effective stacks in the middle on the turn, but villain hits his miracle on the river, he bets the reamaining little bit and you call. Omaha manager now shows -100% of what you invested as EV. Where if you had got his remaining 2bbs in that 300bb pot on the turn where you were 90% favourite, it would show entirely different.

I look back at my sessions, some where I was playing well but getting drawn out constantly with the situation above, and it shows -600bbs where I'd actually be way ahead.

It just seems like it's not accurate..?

Patvs
07-26-2010, 02:10 AM
Edit: title changed

This is the accurate EV calculation.
It seems unfair.. since you committed 99% of your stack with the best hand.
For a long time I thought it was unfair (and I wanted a "EV per street" calculation) until I read: http://forums.holdemmanager.com/3rd-party-programs-compatible-holdem-manager/16665-enter-sect-7.html


Summary:

The EV "problem" what some people don't understand:
A: If a player has 0 outs, or
B: the allin situation takes place on the river there is NO EV DIFFERENCE.
C: If a shortstack goes allin preflop, and is called by two bigstacks. And the two bigstacks continue to bet on the flop, turn or river, this situation is treated as situation B. (EV = 0)
Fozzy: "You can't calculate all-in equity if you don't know the hands you are up against."
D: If you commit 99% of your stack with the best hand, but your last 1% goes allin with the worst hand, the $EV Difference will be calculated by your entire stack.

Why "EV by street" (which people who often see situation D want) is a bad thing:

Example:
- you have AA, you raise to 80% of your stack, donkey calls, flop comes K83 rainbow.
- you then go all-in, no matter the flop, because you're committed.
- out of 100 times, 88 times donkey folds.
- 12 times donkeys calls with a set (33/88/KK).
What shall EV by street wrongly do? It shall do no computations for the 88 times where donkey folded--> "no more calculation".
What shall EV by street do the 12 times where donkey calls with a set? "Show that donkey sucked out and that you got unlucky".

So although you ran obviouslyreally good by having donkey folding 88 times out of 100. EV by street focuses on the 12 times where donkey hit his set and tells that you're running below EV.
This is a well-known gambler fallacy. And this is why "EV by street" is also biased.

Note: Tristanblue writes "it's precisely because EV by street does nothing to your adjusted-graph on these cases where the opponent folded that it is wrong".

But what if your opponent never folds? Suppose there are two players A and B.
Player A has AA, B has KK. (both have $100 stacks). They commit half their stack preflop and the flop comes AK6. Player B (KK has 1 "out") to win the hand.
If I would play this hand I would always make sure I'm allin on the turn.
However Player X always commits the rest of his stack on the flop and turn *except for one dollar*. And he commits on the river. (this is exactly like your 99% Omaha hand example)
Of course, 4% of the time, the rivercard is the case King. Player X's EV Diff is always 0. (because he goes allin on the river)
My EV Diff (I go allin on the turn) is -$4 (96 out of 100 times) and +$96 (4 out of 100 times)
So our EV graph actually looks exactly the same after 100 of these hands.
(-4 x 96 + 96 + 4 = also equals 0!) So the EV outcome is the same no matter how you play the hand.

LeviJ88
07-26-2010, 03:17 AM
Makes sense. I've seen people fold on the river getting 20 to 1.. when they miss there wrap+flush and are left with high card. In those situations I get 100% of the chips as +EV. But I get what you mean, If I were to play that situation 100 times, my EV would even out in the long run.

csoda
07-31-2010, 11:58 PM
This examples whit sets are wrong.
The EV calc is only mater, if u know both hand. And after that u cud calculate for any street.
There is no difference of calculation in card or what the willian have done.

Only question is:
- which part of the stack u put and how in to the calculation.

The Ev calculation by street is terrified the poker sites! Because if the HM or any calculation program will do it well, then there will been exposes of the card RNG manipulations.
Probably that is the reason that not developed yet....

The Minder
08-01-2010, 12:33 AM
The Ev calculation by street is terrified the poker sites! Because if the HM or any calculation program will do it well, then there will been exposes of the card RNG manipulations.
Probably that is the reason that not developed yet....
unmitigated crap.

csoda
08-01-2010, 12:51 AM
Every one have his limits....

U have reached ur's...

But the earth is still goes around the sun :)

_Loki_
08-01-2010, 01:20 AM
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Every one have his limits....

U have reached ur's...

But the earth is still goes around the sun :)
Bravo. That is a really good shot back over the net

Of course you are incorrect csoda - that is a myth perpetrated by rational scientists. May they burn in the eternal BBQ to come

Here you may find the sort of people on your your side of the EV divide:
>> The Earth Is Not Moving (http://www.fixedearth.com/)
>> http://creationwiki.org/Bible_says_the_sun_goes_around_the_earth_-_Part_2_%28Talk.Origins%29

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What do I believe ?
In just about anything if you buy me a beer, but in the usefulness of EV - never :D

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