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View Full Version : how many hands do i need for stats being reliable?



justafish
06-21-2010, 07:11 PM
i wonder how many hands i need from one villain to make his stats fully reliable. i know the "the more, the better" and that stats are never "fully" reliable. but i want to find out if there´s a limit or a certain number of hands from which on we can say "now we know how villain is playing"? i guess 1000 is a good start for a first framework, 2000 is even better, so maybe 3000 is the borderline? or even more than that? can you give me a number please, just for the sake of an answer?

btw. is there any guideline/user guide for all the single stats (how many cases they should happen) that their information is valueable?

morny
06-21-2010, 08:43 PM
If 100 people answered there would probably be 101 different answers:D Probably not the answer you want to hear but its how it is, mega fish youll be able to get a read on after 50-100 hands, other players you might not get a ready on whether there just aggro or loose until 200-400 hands. Nits youll spot within 100 stats.

Same with stats, VPIP and PFR etc youll be able to get a read after a couple hundred hands, stats like raise flop you would need thousands of hands to get a read. Stats like wtsd and w$sd again would need 500-2500 depending on the type of player. The bigger the sample then the more reliable.

_Loki_
06-21-2010, 09:38 PM
In addition to what Morny says & not entirely off-topic I hope - the best stat is what you see with your eyes so take NOTES

There's stuff about a players betting patterns & ranges that you can pick up real quick if you pay attention to his mucked cards. You can't do this if you multi-table though

stry67
06-22-2010, 08:30 AM
I was gonna post a thread asking about a similar Q but figured be easier to ask here.

What HH sample size does 3bet% start to converge roughly?