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View Full Version : discrepancy between adjusted EV and luck-adjusted grpah



theduffman
04-24-2010, 08:22 PM
Hi, I've found something very odd.

In tourney, results, my luck adjusted winnings is above my (green) actual winnings by a couple of hundred dollars. When I check the "Show EV adjusted values" box, my ROI improves. i.e. I've been unlucky.

In tourney, reports, my winnings (presumably being given in chips) is about 600,000 above my $ (EV adjusted). i.e. I've been lucky.

How can I be both unlucky and unlucky on what seem to be very similar stats? I'm not applying any filters as far as I know. I have heard that some kinds of features are limited or misleading for MTTs, is something along those lines occuring here?

Thanks all

netsrak
04-25-2010, 05:45 AM
I think this FAQ should help you at first.
FAQ - Hold'em Manager Poker Tracking Software :: EV Explained (http://faq.holdemmanager.com/questions/120/EV+Explained)

Please come back if you need further help.

theduffman
04-27-2010, 03:08 AM
No, I'd already seen that link already. I understand perfectly well what EV is. But my EV graph contradicts my EV in 'reports'. It seems like one or the other is broken. I'm going to assume it's the graph, but can anyone shed any light on the issue?

netsrak
04-27-2010, 03:37 AM
Can you please post some screenshots explaining it?
Then i can forward it to one of our EV experts ;)

theduffman
04-28-2010, 02:51 AM
Thanks,
Here is my query:
1) Why does the following luck graph never deviate whatsoever from the winnings graph?
http://i115.photobucket.com/albums/n289/theDuffman/luckadjusted2.jpg?t=1272437282

2) Why is this graph so different when I filter the data to include STTs? I hardly entered any of those at all.
luckadjusted.jpg picture by theDuffman - Photobucket (http://s115.photobucket.com/albums/n289/theDuffman/?action=view&current=luckadjusted.jpg)

3) Fairly separate: under tourney-> reports, is it possible to filter the tournaments according to buy-in?

Thanks again, Ryan

Patvs
04-28-2010, 12:28 PM
Luck Adjusted Winnings works for STT only.
So it's normal it shows NO difference for your MTTs.

The 200 STT you played do cause the RED line; luck adjusted winnings difference.

Your main post is more interesting: It is possible your
"luck adjusted winnings is above my (green) actual winnings i.e. I've been unlucky.
In tourney, reports, my winnings (presumably being given in chips) is about 600,000 above my $ (EV adjusted). i.e. I've been lucky.
How can I be both unlucky and unlucky?"

YES.. that is possible. Because you can be lucky winning 600,000 extra chips, in hands that have no impact on your winnings. i.e. nobody gets eliminated those hands, nobody moves up in the prizepool, etc. And if you're unlucky in important hands where you're knocked out of the STT (especially in the bubble) or finish in 2th place, whereas had you won the hand you would have finished in 1th place, those hands have a huge impact on luck adjusted winnings.

You can only filter according to buyin in Tourney--> Results.
There are still 4 reports you can run: stakes, multitable, daily month in that tab.

theduffman
04-30-2010, 07:52 AM
Thanks, that answers all my questions and makes great sense