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View Full Version : Allin EV where mucked cards not shown



BigNit
04-15-2010, 07:24 AM
On sites that do not show mucked cards the EV graph is meaningless since when you go allin and are called you only get to see your opponent's cards if you lose at showdown. Therefore the -ev instances are counted and the +ev instances missed. (When someone else goes allin and you call you always get to see your opponent's cards so this is ok.) As a result on these sites, over any meaningful sample, it will appear that you have run significantly under expectation.

I think it would be better if on sites that don't show mucked cards the allin ev when you go allin and get called is set to the $ won in the hand, ie it is assumed that you run exactly according to expectation over these hands. The ev when you call an allin can be left unchanged.

If this is not possible to impliment then a simpler solution would be to just have the ev for all hands on these sites set to the $ won. Then the consolidated ev graph over all sites (some of which show mucked cards and some of which don't) would still be valid.

Patvs
04-15-2010, 05:26 PM
On which pokersite can you muck your hand in an ALLIN situation?
Can you post a full handhistory of a hand where this occurs.

BigNit
04-15-2010, 06:54 PM
This happens on Boss Media. For example in the hand below I go allin on the flop and get called. I get lucky and hit a flush but we do not get to see my opponent's cards so the ev $ diff shows zero. However, had I lost the pot I would have seen my opponents cards and the ev $ column would show a positive value in the ev $ diff column, i.e. it would indicate that I had been unlucky.

Hold'Em Manager Poker Tracking and Analysis Software (http://www.holdemmanager.net)
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer Game#2106837300

cheeeech ($23)
STORMYLUDO ($12.55)
DaveC0 ($51.15)
nio10 ($39.45)

cheeeech posts (BB) $0.50

Dealt to DaveC0 Js Ks
STORMYLUDO calls $0.50
DaveC0 raises to $2
nio10 calls $2
fold, fold,
FLOP ($5) Qs 4s 4h
DaveC0 bets $3.75
nio10 raises to $16.25
DaveC0 raises to $49.15 (AI)
nio10 calls $21.20 (AI)
TURN ($79.90) Qs 4s 4h 7d
RIVER ($79.90) Qs 4s 4h 7d As
DaveC0 shows Js Ks

DaveC0 wins $76.90

morny
04-15-2010, 07:36 PM
Unfortunately unless they show the hand in the hand history we cant calculate the EV and it appears from that example that they dont display it

BigNit
04-16-2010, 07:38 AM
I agree - the cards are not shown so the ev $ diff has to be set to zero in this case. Take another example where I go allin on the flop and get called and lose:

Hold'Em Manager Poker Tracking and Analysis Software (http://www.holdemmanager.net)
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer Game#2131724221

DaveC0 ($82.59)
VHH ($12.23)
dadoo0007 ($31.49)
Lam(Bi ($40.77)
JC0P ($199)

DaveC0 posts (SB) $0.25
VHH posts (BB) $0.50

Dealt to DaveC0 Kc Ah
dadoo0007 raises to $1.75
Lam(Bi calls $1.75
fold,
DaveC0 raises to $8.50
fold,
dadoo0007 calls $6.75
fold,
FLOP ($19.25) 9c Ad Qd
DaveC0 bets $23
dadoo0007 calls $22.99 (AI)
TURN ($65.23) 9c Ad Qd Jc
RIVER ($65.23) 9c Ad Qd Jc 4c
dadoo0007 shows Ac Tc
(Pre 29%, Flop 17.0%, Turn 31.8%)

DaveC0 shows Kc Ah
(Pre 71%, Flop 83.0%, Turn 68.2%)

dadoo0007 wins $62.23

Here the ev $ diff is given as $51.67. Taking this hand in isolation this is correct. However we only know this because I lost the hand. In order for the ev adjusted profit for a session or a period of time to be meaningful I think we should assign the hand above an ev $ diff of zero. When we go allin and are called we don't see the times when we are lucky so we should also exclude the times when we are unlucky in order that the expected value of the ev adjusted profit is equal to the actual profit.

The ev adjusted profit for a session would then only adjust for hands when we call an allin, where we see both the times we are lucky and the times we are unlucky.

BCage
04-18-2010, 06:40 PM
+1

This is an excellent suggestion and it would make the EV graph useful on the BOSS network (or maybe other networks that don't show mucked cards) with only a minor change. Which is: don't calculate AI-EV for hands where you go all-in, only for hands where you call an all-in.

pbot
04-20-2010, 08:19 PM
OP is right. The current way is misleading.

BigNit
04-30-2010, 12:36 PM
Any more thoughts on this suggestion?

Also would it be possible to use the filters to work this out manually? I would need to filter to show hands where I ended up allin where the last action I took was a call.

BigNit
05-26-2010, 09:25 AM
Pokertracker now exclude boss hands from ev calculations:

"Boss hands are omitted from EV calculations because when you win your opponents' hand is not shown at showdown. This will therefore skew your results considerably making you always appear unlucky when that is not the case."

My suggested solution would be better but this would be better than nothing.

Koiruus
01-07-2011, 08:10 PM
Hello,

Yes, because the boss network software shows all all-in hands lost and only some all-in hands, this will result in a negatively biased ev graph if done the usual way.

A solution first came to mind was to guess the ev for 50% for all these hands. That would be better but not yet correct. This is because, on average, the hands won will have higher than 50% equity. So, the corrent average equity to use for these hands is between 50 and 100%. This can be semi-easily calculated.

Best,
Koiruus

BigNit
01-09-2011, 07:58 AM
Not sure whay you think that on average the hands won have higher than 50% equity. Say you had a player who moved in before the flop every hand. The vast majority of the time when called he would have less than 50% equity. Obviously over a reasonable sample he is likley to have more equity the times when he wins the hand and villain's cards are not shown than when he loses and they are. However the average equity will be less than 50% in both cases.

Easier just to exclude all the hands where the cards will not be shown if you won, i.e. when you go all in and get called.

Doesn't look like anyone else cares though!