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Makonnen
04-01-2010, 12:41 AM
Is there a formula I can use that will tell me how likely/unlikely a specific rate of runGood or runBad is? That is, if over x hands, I am y BB above or below AIEV, how probably is that?

Patvs
04-01-2010, 02:08 AM
Likelyhood of AIEV. It's:

http://img256.imageshack.us/img256/4958/94434805.jpg


Read chapter 2 (Predicting the Future: Variance) in the book THE MATHEMATICS OF POKER by Bill Chan.

Makonnen
04-01-2010, 02:17 AM
Hrrmmm ... don't have the book, and while I appreciate the drawing of the formula, I was hoping for something I could plug into Excel or the like. What is the denominator in the formula? I think if I know that, I may be able to work something out ...

Patvs
04-01-2010, 02:42 AM
The book spends half the chapter to explain the formula above.
There's no easy Excel formula.... although I remember there was a simplified formula on 2+2.


Risk of Ruin Equation with # of hands played as an additional input variable - Gambling and Probability - Probability Theory Forum (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25/probability/risk-ruin-equation-hands-played-additional-input-variable-636215/)

ROR= f[(-En-B/w)/sqrt(nV)] + f[(En-B/w)/sqrt(nV)] * exp(-2EB/w)/V