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View Full Version : My experience with Leak Buster



JPFisher55
03-26-2010, 04:52 PM
I started playing online poker in 2005. Through March 2009, I consistently won at levels up to NL200. After over 1 million hands played, the wheels came off. For the rest of 2009, I only broke even after rakeback and lost at the tables. I really believe that my downturn was, and is, due to rare bad luck over a long period of hands 400-500KFinally, after quite a bit of skepticism, I decided to try Leak Buster.

Based on my score, I have raised more pre-flop, tried more blind steals, more often bet the turn and more often made river value bets. My VP$P/PFR has gone from about 52 to 74. My blind steals now rate a 10. I'll admit that my turn CBET and river aggression is still low, but I keep stats on flopping a pair on raised preflop hands and my rate is a few points lower than the expected 27%.

Based on reviewing my stats for this year, my Leak Buster score is now 261 after being about 176. Also, the hands that I am raising when I used to limp are showing a profit while raising. The blind steals that I make now, but did not before 2010, are about even in profit. My doubling barreling the turn more often has shown no profit. Maybe the river value betting has helped a little, but not much.

Anyway despite moving up my Leak Buster score, I am still losing. Why, well my AIEV is still negative, my SECT expected winnings still exceed my actual winnings in showdown hands, and my one pair flop rate on pre-flop raised hands is still low (it wasn't before 2009). So sorry Leak Buster, maybe it improved my game, but not enough to offset bad luck. In other words, it is better to be on the high side of variance than have really strong play. And being on the very low side of variance offsets good play. Also, IMO, most of the so-called leaks revealed by Leak Buster are so small that they do not make much difference. IMO, VP$P is probably the most important one, but I have always been at 15-17. I'll admit that raising my PFR helped (ok, likely enough to justify the cost of Leak Buster). But I don't think that Leak Buster can turn a losing player into a winning one or restore a former winning one.

If you look at this website Poker variance simulator (http://www.pokervariancesimulator.fr/) you will see how big variance is over 500k hands. Just plug in a winrate of 2-3, stdev about 50-55 and 500k hands. Of course, the variance is less over 2 million hands. I hope I survive until then.

Leak Buster Support
03-26-2010, 05:18 PM
Thanks for your feedback. I know you've been highly critical of Leak Buster since it's inception (fairly negative even before you owned it, I think would be accurate), so it's helpful to hear your comments.

It sounds like you've made a lot of improvements, and learned a good amount, so when variance evens out you'll be in a good situation. Leak Buster cannot help with luck or tilt, as these things can't really be taught.

It really depends the individual, but a lot of players find massive leaks. Some are more subtle, but even though few you mentioned I don't think you're really giving enough credit because they do make a significant difference in winrate.

And there is a long list of people that have been turned from losers into winners. Or winners have won more. I think if you are really fair about what you've learned, that it's added some depth and understanding to your game (reading between your comments).

Is there something else if added you feel would be helpful?

JPFisher55
03-26-2010, 07:13 PM
Thanks for your feedback. I know you've been highly critical of Leak Buster since it's inception (fairly negative even before you owned it, I think would be accurate), so it's helpful to hear your comments.

It sounds like you've made a lot of improvements, and learned a good amount, so when variance evens out you'll be in a good situation. Leak Buster cannot help with luck or tilt, as these things can't really be taught.

It really depends the individual, but a lot of players find massive leaks. Some are more subtle, but even though few you mentioned I don't think you're really giving enough credit because they do make a significant difference in winrate.

And there is a long list of people that have been turned from losers into winners. Or winners have won more. I think if you are really fair about what you've learned, that it's added some depth and understanding to your game (reading between your comments).

Is there something else if added you feel would be helpful?

For the record, I was negative. Now, I am guardedly positive.

You may be right. If I could actually hit a flop after I raise or reraise, the results from doing this more often would be better. This stat, percentage flopping a pair after raising or calling a raise without a PP seems to be a good indicator of overall luck. In 2008 it was 26.36%, but last year it dropped to 25.19%. For reraise in 2008, it was 28.28% and 24.08% last year. This year the stats look like last year with similar win results. Now if I can live long enough for variance to turn.

MASTERHOLMES
03-26-2010, 09:09 PM
have you run all the filters lately ? ,,
you know the one where you saw the river with top pair top kicker or worse for example ?

edited to add
what about your 3bet filters ?

JPFisher55
03-26-2010, 10:47 PM
have you run all the filters lately ? ,,
you know the one where you saw the river with top pair top kicker or worse for example ?

edited to add
what about your 3bet filters ?

I wish I could get to the river with TPTK more often since my profit when I do is huge.