problem with all-in EV

[wannebe]

hi,

i think that the holdem manager all-in EV calculation is wrong.
i played a hand where i flopped the nut straight. my opponent had only 3 Asses to split, a backdoor flush and a backdoor full house to win. before the flop the pot was 3$. before the turn the pot was 21$. now he had 3 Asses to split and a flush draw. before the river the pot was 47$. at the end the pot was 71$ and i lost vs. a flush. i had invested 35.25$ through the whole hand. now i look at the all-in EV and see a straight line down for a little above 35$. the programm calculates the whole invested money as drawing death for me, despite i only payed 12$ at the end with 0% expectation. the rest i got in as a (huge) favourite.

can someone explain this to me ?

[fozzy71]

Please zip and email the problem hand history, with a link to this thread, to support@holdemmanager.com

[Patvs]

Why "EV by street" (which people who often see situation D want) is a bad thing:
Best explanation here: http://forums.holdemmanager.com/3rd-party-programs-compatible-holdem-manager/16665-enter-sect-7.html

Summary of that thread:
Example:
- you have AA, you raise to 80% of your stack, donkey calls, flop comes K83 rainbow.
- you then go all-in, no matter the flop, because you're committed.
- out of 100 times, 88 times donkey folds.
- 12 times donkeys calls with a set (33/88/KK).
What shall EV by street bogusly do? It shall do no computations for the 88 times where donkey folded--> "no more calculation".
What shall EV by street do the 12 times where donkey calls with a set? "Show that donkey sucked out and that you got unlucky".

So although you ran obviously uber-good by having donkey folding 88 times out of 100. EV by street focuses on the 12 times where donkey hit his set and tells that you're running below EV.
This is a well-known gambler fallacy. And this is why "EV by street" is also biased and should not be implemented.

Note: Tristanblue writes "it's precisely because EV by street does nothing to your adjusted-graph on these cases where the opponent folded that it is completely bogus."
But what if your opponent never folds? Suppose there are two players A and B. Player A has AA, B has KK. (both have $100 stacks). They commit half their stack preflop and the flop comes AK6. Player B (KK has 1 "out") to win the hand. If I would play this hand I would always make sure I'm allin on the turn. However Player X always commits the rest of his stack on the flop and turn *except for one dollar*. And he commits on the river.
Of course, 4% of the time, the rivercard is the case King. Player X's EV Diff is always 0. My EV Diff is -$4 (96 out of 100 times) and +$96 (4 out of 100 times) So our EV graph actually looks the same after 100 of these hands.


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So for your hand.. the fact you invested most of your stack with the best hand is irrelevant. It would be unfair, to give you a +EV Diff because you got unlucky..... if we don't give you a -EV Diff for all the times your opponent does not hit his flush/3 outs to split.