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View Full Version : wrong pot sizes and $EV ...?



Astroxss
02-28-2010, 05:25 PM
1) We go all in preflop with QQ vs 55
pot is $31.40
My equity is 80% so.....

A: HM shows that i won $ 14,7 ( but actually its 31.40)
B: I think $ EV should be 80% x $ 31.40= $ 24,12 not -5,82.
C: HM reads wrong pot sizes from HH.

I have version 1.10.03b. And windows XP
Hands are from pokerstars

My database is fucked up with with such errors :D


image:


http://content20-foto.inbox.lv/albums123578616/astroxss/19-02-2010/equity.jpg

RaZZcal
02-28-2010, 07:05 PM
The whole pot is not your profit... The pot also includes the money you put in.

Patvs
02-28-2010, 09:32 PM
QQ $14.70 goes allin against 55 $14.70 (total pot is $31.40) (so there was an additional $2 in the pot from blinds/other players?)

QQ is a 81% favorite.
81% 31.40 = $25.434 (that's how much you're supposed to win)

You win the hand--> you win $31.40. So you EV difference is 25.434 - 31.40 = -$5.9 (that's the -$5.82) So it all makes perfect sense.

Had you lost the hand, because your opponent spiked a 5--> you'd have lost the $31.40 pot. But your EV was still +$25.434.

Astroxss
03-01-2010, 05:25 AM
Ty for replay.

Is there something changed in the way how HM shows $EV. ?

some time before it was displaying expected EV, but now it shows EV difference ????

For example:

I flip coin for 1$ with 50/50 chance to win.

My expected EV in long term is 1/2 from 1$ = 0,5 $

If i flip and win , then i win 1$. my expected EV = 0,5$, BUT EV DIFFERENCE is -0,5$ ( minus).

basically there are two ways how to display that i was lucky.

Problem is: psyholagically it is much more easy to see Expected value, than expected value difference ( which, if you win flips is with minus at beginning).

That minus sign is killing me !

It makes me think that i play bad and run super lucky .

I spent a lot of days wondering why there are those minuses in my EV difference ( i thought that it shows expected value, NOT DIFFERENCE).


Please, please, as i`m 100% sure that i`m not first one who has such problem- make an option for players to choose do they want so see EV or EV difference.

I don`t argue with you how it is more mathematically correct to display luck, but think about psychology.

Astroxss
03-01-2010, 05:43 AM
I seriously suggest you to think what effect it has on people who play high stakes and see:

A) He won last month 1 million dollars but his EV was 0,8 millions
B) He won last month 1 million dollars, but hes EV difference is minus 200k $

Variant A is better for those who run better than expected.
variant B is better for those who run worst than expected ( will have positive EV difference).

I just had better idea- make it choose able from variant A and B ( to display EV or EV diff.) AND make 3rd way how EV will be displayed:

- Automatic switching between variant A and B.
If i run hot- it displays variant A
When i run bad- it displays variant B

Let us choose and save our psyche :D


If necessary , i can make a tread (petition) at twoplustwo.com to find people who think same like me :)

Patvs
03-01-2010, 05:51 AM
If you flip a coin the EV is 0. You expect to win 0, after flipping a coin a million times.

Therefore, if you win a coinflip, you win $1 and your EV = $0--> so the EV difference is -$1.
If you lose, you lose $1 and the EV = $0--> so the EV difference is +$1.


So there aren't really two ways to display luck. $WON (the actual outcome) + EV difference = EV. You should't worry if the $EV difference is MINUS. If you always get your money in with the best hand, the PLUS $EV difference (when you lose, after commiting your stack with the best hand) will be a LOT MORE.

Edit: just ignore the EV Difference.. and watch the EV line in your GRAPH.

Astroxss
03-01-2010, 05:59 AM
Upsss, my apologies about my stupidity in EV calculations ( and poor understanding) :(

But still, you should think about the way how EV/EV diff is displayed from psychological point of view.

It may have no effect on math guys like you, but i has effect on such non ev /ev diff. understanding people.