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View Full Version : Leaks, Calling C-bets, and Other Stats



Ajax
02-23-2010, 11:50 PM
Step 2 recommends that we fold to c-bet 48-66% for full-ring (and 46-58% for 6max). Do you happen to also have a recommended range, based on the data you collected, that players should call c-bets and raise c-bets?

Also, I wanted to know if there were any other stats that you did not include in step 2, but you almost put them in step 2, and what the recommended ranges would have been for those stats.

I am mainly interested in full-ring.

Leak Buster Support
02-24-2010, 06:24 AM
You don't really have a recommended range when you know what your hand is. When you are speculating on ranges, that is based on someone's VPIP/PFR, and an array of hands that would fit that situation.

So not really sure exactly what you're asking. It's kind of a really abstract concept on calling / raising c-bets when there are so many variables that go into the decision. The best advice I can give is that the less aggressive your opponent is on the turn, the more liberally you should call c-bets, and consequently, the more aggressive they are you should fold/raise.

Ajax
02-24-2010, 03:37 PM
Thanks for the advice. I will be able to use it to improve my play.


You don't really have a recommended range when you know what your hand is... So not really sure exactly what you're asking...

To clarify what I am asking, I am referring to a recommended range BEFORE you know what your hand is, just like all of the ranges that were done in Step 2, BEFORE the hand is known.

If you do statistical analysis, across several thousand players, on CallCB%, to find the high and low values for which player profitability would start to quickly drop, what would those high and low values be? The idea is to do the analysis as you did when creating the ranges for Step 2. So I guess you would create like 10 small ranges for CallCB%, and then determine the average bb/100 and the median bb/100 for those 10 ranges for thousands of players. Then see where the profitability of players started to drop when CallCB% got too high, and where the profitability of players started to drop when CallCB% got too low. That high and low value would create a range for CallCB%, and whenever we play above or below that range, it is a possible leak.

For RaiseCB%, you would do the same as I described for CallCB%.

It might seem like two odd statistics to investigate like this, but that is what I am trying to get.

Ajax
02-24-2010, 04:16 PM
Here is some more information to clarify.

What I am after is either a single range, or even better than that would be a table of ranges with the corresponding median bb/100 (and maybe average bb/100 also).

For the stat CallFlopCB%, the end result would be a table that shows the median profitability for various ranges. I have no idea where the actual ranges would tend to fall, but the table would tend to look something like this:

Call
Flop.........Median
CB%.........bb/100
----.........------
0-5..........-8
5-10.........-6.5
10-15.......-5.4
15-20.......-3.7
20-25.......-2.6
.
.
.
25-30.......+2.7
35-40.......+3.5
.
.

We could then probably see from the table what values of CallFopCB% are too high, and what values are too low. The same would be done for RaiseFlopCB%.

I would think that this is the same type of analysis that you did for all of the stats in Step 2, and so you may have possibly already had this information, or already have the means to quickly get at it. It wold be a run through the raw data that you already used to create the ranges in Step 2. But I do not know how much work it would be to do that run... that might be something that could prevent you from doing the analysis.

Ajax
02-24-2010, 04:43 PM
The above analysis would be done on players with a VPIP of about 15-19, and a PFR of about 11-14, for full-ring tables. If done for 6-max tables, then the analysis would be on players with VPIP of about 19-24, and PFR of about 16-20. Somewhat higher and lower VPIP and PFR might need to also be used in the analysis, or perhaps a second run would be needed for wider ranges of VPIP and PFR (I am not sure about this part and might need to think about it some more, but you might have an opinion on it that would be helpful too).

As I write this, I can see how involved it might be to process all the data.

Leak Buster Support
02-24-2010, 05:36 PM
Ok, you were confusing me by saying range, you meant range of stats, not hands. I think in a nutshell you're trying to understand how to respond to c-bet properly, and breaking it down statistically, in order to exploit your opponents. However, this does create some problems in applying this information in real time.

1) You need a really large sample size. Even 10k on an opponent won't really help much.
2) There are a lot of dynamics in any given situation that would alter the reliability of a dry statistical model for this situation.

Leak Buster already breaks down these high and low ranges into chunks of data, but the main point is to show you on your own database (which should be significantly larger than you have on most opponents), when you're falling out of profitable ranges. The stats are insights into things you need to change about your game.

I wish there was a magical formula on how to respond c-bets perfectly every time, but I don't think there is. If this was the case, just about every situation could and would be analyzed like this. Some basic areas of the game can be explored like this, but there are some obvious limitations.

I think the information we can use real time w/ the help of a HUD is like what I said. The higher someone's PFR % is, the wider their range is going to be. The higher their c-bet % is going to be, the wider their c-bet range is. So use the Leak Buster hud and look for green or red for these stats, and then make a plan for your hand so that you know what you're going to do not only on the flop, but also the turn. Here's a real world example:

Your opponent has stats of 22/18 and they open from middle position (their open % from middle position is 21% - on the slightly higher side). You have AhJh on the button. Before you even call with these hand, you should be thinking about what kinds of flops you want (besides just hutting your hand or flopping the nuts), and what kind of opponent this is. Are they double barrelling a lot? Do they go to showdown a lot? How aggressive are they? Should I be looking to float more flops against this opponent, or raise / fold? etc...

Your opponent c-bets 81% of the time, and their turn agg% is 44% (very high). So, your plan should be to raise or fold a good percentage of flops since floating against this opponent won't be profitable.

Flop comes: Qs 8h 3c

Your opponent c-bets as expected. So whats your plan? Folding is fine, but it's not very fun. :) That's the perfect flop to use your position and exploit your opponents tendencies. You have an over card that is likely good, and a back door nut flush draw. You know if you call (float), your going to face a double barrel w/ a fairly wide range of hands where you'll have to fold unless you improve somehow.

So you make a small raise, and your opponent folds his hand. He's going to have to fold a large percentage of his hands and made hands as well. Even if he suspects he has you beat say with a hand like 99-JJ, he's going to be stuck playing that hand out of position against you the rest of the way. There's very few hands that can confidently continue on that board, and based on the combinations of hands your opponent will have in that spot, it's a profitable spot to exploit someone's play. When you start playing against opponents who can really think on multiple levels, how you exploit them will change, but for micro - mid stakes games, these plays are money makers.

So use the Leak Buster HUD and the step 9 information, and I think this will help you much more in understanding exploitable situations so you can improve your winrate.

I hope that at least helps your somewhat. Good luck and continued success with your game.