All-in EV for SNG

[owinter86]

I have noticed a huge error in one of my hands, it shows that it is a -$11.55 EV result.

Full Tilt Poker Game #18328217509: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (138752932), Table 1 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:12:38 ET - 2010/02/09
Seat 3: Omgtinf (3,720)
Seat 5: JoEstar23 (1,060)
Seat 7: EthanVK (3,820)
Seat 8: dogscratch (2,850)
Seat 9: JIACP (2,050)
JIACP posts the small blind of 100
Omgtinf posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dogscratch [Th Ts]
JoEstar23 folds
EthanVK folds
dogscratch has 15 seconds left to act
dogscratch raises to 500
JIACP raises to 2,050, and is all in
Omgtinf folds
dogscratch calls 1,550
JIACP shows [Qc Ac]
dogscratch shows [Th Ts]
*** FLOP *** [9h Jc 3d]
*** TURN *** [9h Jc 3d] [7s]
*** RIVER *** [9h Jc 3d 7s] [Kd]
JIACP shows Ace King high
dogscratch shows a pair of Tens
dogscratch wins the pot (4,300) with a pair of Tens
JIACP stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4,300 | Rake 0
Board: [9h Jc 3d 7s Kd]
Seat 3: Omgtinf (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: JoEstar23 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: EthanVK didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: dogscratch (button) showed [Th Ts] and won (4,300) with a pair of Tens
Seat 9: JIACP (small blind) showed [Qc Ac] and lost with Ace King high

Running this through ICM, im risking approximately $14 in equity to win $11.54 in equity, therefore need to win 14/25.54 (54.82%) of the time. Therefore making this shove with the AQs call, i lose 0.82% equity of the prize pool which is -$0.82 equity lost, not the massive $11 shown in this instance.

[Patvs]

$EV is not the same as cEV (chip EV)

I'll simplify all the numbers: (HoldemManager can make a much more accurate calculation)

In this SNG... in this hand TT vs AQ:
you have a 50% chance to win the hand--> resulting in a 4900 stack (=chipleader) in the bubble... against one shortstack. So you have a 90% to make it into the money (winning at least $19) and a 39% to WIN the SNG (winning $49)

You have a 50% chance to lose the hand. You'll then have 800 chips left.
6 players left. Your chance to survive the bubble is slim, with only a 6% chance to still win.

When you started the SNG your EV was $11.
If you win the hand your EV is $25+.
If you lose the hand (50% chance) your EV is around $4.

So winning the hand has a -$11 EV effect.

[owinter86]

So just to clarify, is holdem manager telling me that every time i win this hand i lose $11 in the long run, or does this -11 $EV mean something else.

[owinter86]

Yes i think i answered my own question but looking through the ICM, I won $11.11 EV by winning this hand but, this is slightly a below EV situation where i should be losing $0.44 each time this situation happened. So is this why the $EV difference is - $11.55??

Holdem manager is not saying i lose 11.55 each time this situation occurs, its just i won 11.55 more than i should have by winning this hand, am i correct in saying this?

[Patvs]

It means this hand changed the equity you had in the SNG with $11.
At the end of the SNG there will be multiple hands where critical allin situations took place affecting your equity.

HM adds them all up. And you can compare that number with your actual winnings. The difference results in your SNG EV graph.

FUN Example
Bubble situation: 4 players left. Blinds are 200/400.
player 1: 3500 AA
player 2: 3500 KK
player 3: 5000
player 4: 500 you fold (you'll be the big blind the next hand)
Players 1 and 2 go allin against each other. YOU ARE PLAYER 4
It doesn't matter if player 1 or 2 wins the hand. You are going to be in the money! BUT by a freak board the AA vs KK results in a splitpot.
Now the hand has a disastrous effect on you.
99.5% of the time you would have been in the money!
0.5% of the time, it's a splitpot.. and you're screwed.

So this is hand where you folded preflop, which will have a huge $EV impact.