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lostbear87
01-16-2010, 08:41 PM
I was just wondering how the EV adjusted values (I asume this is what is shown on the red "luck adjusted" graph) are calculated for tournament winnings? I can see it's pretty straight forward for cash pots, but say someone sucks out on me for a massive pot early on in a MTT. How can you calculate my luck adjusted winnings given that you have no idea where I would have placed had I remained in the tournament?

lostbear87
01-16-2010, 11:13 PM
bump

Patvs
01-17-2010, 01:23 AM
It only works for single table tournaments.

Example: you're involved in a bubble coinflip against a player with an equally big stack. $10 SNG. If you lose (50% of the time your EV is 0 and you're out of the SNG), if you win (50% of the time) you're in the money: In the money you'll have a "xxxx chips/devided by/all chips" x 100% chance to finish #1, and you're guaranteed #3 place winnings, etc. so HM can calculate your EV based on that...

Example 2: Two bigstacks go allin in the bubble with AA vs KK.
If either of them wins the pot, you're in the money. But they split the pot.
This is a hand you weren't even involved in, which had a negative effect on your EV.

and display it in a wonderful graph
GREEN is winnings
RED is EV

http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/9489/sng.jpg


Edit: if you lose the first hand of a SNG with the best hand, no one can tell what position you would have finished. But had you won the hand, you'd have a double-stack. And your expectation to win the SNG would be
2x average stack / all stacks x 100% = 22% to win. If you win you win 5x buyin. So you EV is about 22% of 5 buyins is close to ONE buyin.

lostbear87
01-17-2010, 11:25 AM
I see, so in theory you could apply this same principle to MTTs? Is it simply a case of not having enough information in the hand histories about the stack sizes at other tables?

Patvs
01-17-2010, 02:19 PM
Yes, in a MTT, HEM needs the information from ALL the other tables, whenever any big allin hand takes place. It also needs to know the exact payout structure (in bubble situation, or when the payout goes up a level, have the biggest impact in EV)

Hopefully it will be possible in a future HEM update, that HEM will be able to calculate EV if you make the final table. Since it can treat the final table as a regular STT.