Basic
01-14-2010, 01:30 PM
I think I must be making some sort of mistake when trying to calculate the success of my mining attempts using HEM, either that or I am very very very unlucky :eek:
I thought if I counted how many low pairs I have that seen the flop by using a filter and then count how many of these have sets in the flop I could get a more accurate view of whether I am running good, bad or average for these.
So far in my database I have 33028 hands recorded at this level and to check the success rate I tried using the filters as follows.
First completely clearing all filters.
Unfiltered: No. of hands = 33028
Applying the "Saw Flop = True" filter : No. of hands = 3415
keeping this set and:
Adding a "Hole Card" filter of the pairs 22,33,44...,88 gives
No. of hands = 915 (I think this means I have 915 games in total were I had low/med pairs and went onto see a flop)
keeping these set and:
Now adding a "Made Hand Values"| "Any Flop Hand Value" filter of "Three of a kind - set - High" and the "Second set" and the "Low set" sets gives
No. of hands = 49 (I think this means I have 49 hands that saw the flop and 1 card matched my pair (it may not count 4 of a kind, and may count hands were the flop was Y,Y,Y but this would be close enough for me)
This seems to indicate that I have hit sets only 49 times in 915 ie, 1 in 18.7 times! Yipes.
In theory I think I should fail to hit a set once in (48/50 + 47/49 + 46/48) = 0.88.
So I should hit approx. 12% of times which translates to the well known 1 in 7.5.
I think I must have used HEM wrong here because I haven't broken that many mirrors.
I stopped looking for leaks and tried to work out how often a 1 in 18 result should occur in theory. Sadly my maths was not up to the job but I did knock together a simple python script simulation and using this 1 in 18 does not occur in a 915 sample size even 1 in 1000000 times.
As I stated at the top I think I am screwing up the filters of HEM.
Has anybody got any clue as to what I am doing wrong.
Edit[ I now realize I also forgot about the time I flop full houses - but this will only add a few more hands so I still seem to be hitting at a rate of about 1 in 16 or so and that is so unlikely. It is still the case that I am missing the obvious and being a complete numbskull.) ]
Thanks for any help,
Basic
(and I apologize to the Poker Gods if I have somehow upset them :-)
I thought if I counted how many low pairs I have that seen the flop by using a filter and then count how many of these have sets in the flop I could get a more accurate view of whether I am running good, bad or average for these.
So far in my database I have 33028 hands recorded at this level and to check the success rate I tried using the filters as follows.
First completely clearing all filters.
Unfiltered: No. of hands = 33028
Applying the "Saw Flop = True" filter : No. of hands = 3415
keeping this set and:
Adding a "Hole Card" filter of the pairs 22,33,44...,88 gives
No. of hands = 915 (I think this means I have 915 games in total were I had low/med pairs and went onto see a flop)
keeping these set and:
Now adding a "Made Hand Values"| "Any Flop Hand Value" filter of "Three of a kind - set - High" and the "Second set" and the "Low set" sets gives
No. of hands = 49 (I think this means I have 49 hands that saw the flop and 1 card matched my pair (it may not count 4 of a kind, and may count hands were the flop was Y,Y,Y but this would be close enough for me)
This seems to indicate that I have hit sets only 49 times in 915 ie, 1 in 18.7 times! Yipes.
In theory I think I should fail to hit a set once in (48/50 + 47/49 + 46/48) = 0.88.
So I should hit approx. 12% of times which translates to the well known 1 in 7.5.
I think I must have used HEM wrong here because I haven't broken that many mirrors.
I stopped looking for leaks and tried to work out how often a 1 in 18 result should occur in theory. Sadly my maths was not up to the job but I did knock together a simple python script simulation and using this 1 in 18 does not occur in a 915 sample size even 1 in 1000000 times.
As I stated at the top I think I am screwing up the filters of HEM.
Has anybody got any clue as to what I am doing wrong.
Edit[ I now realize I also forgot about the time I flop full houses - but this will only add a few more hands so I still seem to be hitting at a rate of about 1 in 16 or so and that is so unlikely. It is still the case that I am missing the obvious and being a complete numbskull.) ]
Thanks for any help,
Basic
(and I apologize to the Poker Gods if I have somehow upset them :-)