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ajloeffl
01-12-2010, 06:50 PM
I found a few annoying issues with the Tournament $ev won vs $ won calculations and the corresponding graphs created.

First off, if I lose a tournament then my $ won should go down by the tournament buyin which it always does but somehow my $ev won can go down MORE than the tournament buyin. Just because I get in a few bad flips and win them and then lose a tournament doesn't mean my $ev should be below the tournament buyin. It's impossible to actually lose more than the tournament buyin so why should the $ev won be able to go below that?

Second, here is a small example. I am playing a $50 heads up tournament and get a guy down to 1 big blind and I have 30 big blinds. He gets in behind 6 times in a row all in PF and wins every single one and the tournament. Well, the $ev won of the first hand for me is like $2 even though had I won the hand I would have actually won $100. Why the huge discrepancy? It seems to me that in a heads up situation ending a tournament the $ev won should not be be a quick chip ev won to $ev won conversion like I am guessing it is. It should somehow take into account that if one side wins he actually wins the prize pool, not just a few chips.

fozzy71
01-12-2010, 08:23 PM
Here are some threads discussing the Tourney EV methods, that might help.


http://forums.holdemmanager.com/showthread.php?t=7159

http://forums.holdemmanager.com/showthread.php?t=20994

http://www.holdemmanager.net/faq/afmviewfaq.aspx?faqid=68

ajloeffl
01-12-2010, 09:07 PM
Ok, my first situation was clarified in that you guys have it uncapped on purpose. Is there an option to cap it?

My second issue is still an issue though. Your method in a tournament for calculating $ev won seems to simply calculate CHIP EV and then translate how ever many chips are at stake to a portion of the prize pool. This is severely lacking. As I explained similarly above in a heads up SNG let's say my opponent has 1bb and I have 99bb. We get all in preflop as each having 50% chance to win and he wins. I'm out only 1bb of EV but my $ev won is only 1% of the prize pool according to HEM when in reality my $ev won should be 50% of the prize pool. As 50% of the time I win the entire tournament.

fozzy71
01-16-2010, 11:39 AM
I have forwarded this thread to the developer for a reply.

ajloeffl
01-22-2010, 07:38 PM
Has this gotten anywhere? I just really want a closer to real representation of luck in my heads up tournaments. When I get a guy to 1bb and he doubles up in flips 10 times and then I get in bad one hand, Holdem manager basically says I sucked that tournament and should have lost according to EV even though statistically I win the tournament 999 times for every 1 loss. It's quite annoying.

fozzy71
01-23-2010, 02:46 AM
My apologies. I should have copied the developers email reply to this thread the other day.


There is nothing for me to look at here that isn’t already explained in detail. Capping the $EV creates bias that makes $EV wrong in the long term and $EV uses ICM which is just math.

Roy